WSG Wattens 1-1 TSV Hartberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates WSG Wattens at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tivoli Stadion Tirol plays host to WSG Wattens versus TSV Hartberg in Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 5. Kick-off: Saturday 29 April 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
WSG Wattens have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 2D 6L. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for WSG Wattens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, WSG Wattens have gone 3W 2D 5L this season (10 games, 1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
TSV Hartberg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D L W D D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, TSV Hartberg have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.80 for WSG Wattens, 1.20 for TSV Hartberg — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
WSG Wattens goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
TSV Hartberg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (58 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — WSG Wattens 53% versus TSV Hartberg 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (WSG Wattens 64% | TSV Hartberg 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects WSG Wattens 1.37 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: WSG Wattens attack 0.932 / defence 1.226 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.756 / defence 1.068. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.336. Data: 44 WSG Wattens games / 44 TSV Hartberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: WSG Wattens 40% | Draw 26% | TSV Hartberg 34%. Fair-value odds: WSG Wattens 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | TSV Hartberg 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates WSG Wattens as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on WSG Wattens if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: WSG Wattens 30% | TSV Hartberg 40% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 5 | Venue: Tivoli Stadion Tirol • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Apr 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: WSG Wattens 40% | Draw 26% | TSV Hartberg 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG WSG Wattens 1.37 / TSV Hartberg 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: WSG Wattens attack 0.932 / def 1.226 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.756 / def 1.068 | league avg home 1.380 / away 1.336 • Poisson stance: WSG Wattens (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
WSG Wattens xG
Expected Goals
1.24
TSV Hartberg xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 29 April 2023 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What was the final score in WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg?
WSG Wattens 1 - 1 TSV Hartberg.
Where is WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What competition is WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg part of?
WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg is a Relegation Round - 5 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives WSG Wattens a 40% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making WSG Wattens the favourite.
Will both teams score in WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both WSG Wattens and TSV Hartberg will score (BTTS).
Will WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and TSV Hartberg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are WSG Wattens and TSV Hartberg in?
WSG Wattens (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-W-D-L. TSV Hartberg (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
WSG Wattens's attacking strength (0.93x league average) is weighed against TSV Hartberg's defensive record (1.07x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. Flip it around — TSV Hartberg's attack (0.76x) against WSG Wattens's defence (1.23x) — and the away total comes out at 1.24.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.0%), 2-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
WSG Wattens Win
40%
2.50
26%
3.81
34%
2.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
WSG Wattens xG
Total xG
2.61
1.24
TSV Hartberg xG
2.50
40%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
2.97
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
25%
3.95
Win to Nil
12%
8.61
9%
11.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 9.1 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.5 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are WSG Wattens and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for WSG Wattens and 1.24 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 58 outings, WSG Wattens have picked up 1.24 PPG on a 20W 12D 26L record — L-L-W-D-L across the most recent five. The sample for WSG Wattens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
TSV Hartberg's form line: 13W 17D 28L from 58 games, 0.97 PPG, last five D-L-W-D-D. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.24 PPG for WSG Wattens against 0.97 for TSV Hartberg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, WSG Wattens have posted 1.31 PPG from 29 outings (10W 8D 11L).
On the road, TSV Hartberg have gone 7W 8D 14L from 29 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
WSG Wattens are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.24 scored and 1.64 conceded.
Last 58 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
WSG Wattens
Blended
TSV Hartberg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are WSG Wattens and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
WSG Wattens have gone 20W 12D 26L in their last 58 games (1.24 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 13W 17D 28L in their last 58 (0.97 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — WSG Wattens at home or TSV Hartberg away?
WSG Wattens's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — WSG Wattens at home: 1.31 PPG; TSV Hartberg away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 13 December 2025, roughly 7 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: TSV Hartberg won 5-0 on 6 May 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, WSG Wattens have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against TSV Hartberg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
WSG Wattens
2
Draws
6
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and TSV Hartberg?
From 10 meetings on record, WSG Wattens have won 2, TSV Hartberg have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did WSG Wattens and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
They last met on 13 December 2025, when TSV Hartberg 2-1 WSG Wattens.
Who has won more matches between WSG Wattens and TSV Hartberg?
TSV Hartberg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — WSG Wattens 52%, TSV Hartberg 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 62% (WSG Wattens) and 55% (TSV Hartberg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 48% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: WSG Wattens have failed to score in 34% of games; TSV Hartberg in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = WSG Wattens home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when WSG Wattens play TSV Hartberg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of WSG Wattens's recent matches and 52% of TSV Hartberg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is WSG Wattens vs TSV Hartberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of WSG Wattens's matches and 55% of TSV Hartberg's.
Do WSG Wattens and TSV Hartberg tend to score early?
WSG Wattens have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, TSV Hartberg in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
WSG Wattens and TSV Hartberg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, Relegation Round - 5, as WSG Wattens and TSV Hartberg drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting WSG Wattens 1.37 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.24 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of WSG Wattens attack 0.93 / defence 1.23 against TSV Hartberg attack 0.76 / defence 1.07, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it WSG Wattens 40% | Draw 26% | TSV Hartberg 34%, with WSG Wattens to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (WSG Wattens 64%, TSV Hartberg 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
WSG Wattens's trading profile (58 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (58 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — WSG Wattens 1.24 PPG, TSV Hartberg 0.97 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.