WSG Wattens 4-0 Lask Linz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lask Linz at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this WSG Wattens vs Lask Linz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
WSG Wattens and Lask Linz meet at Tivoli Stadion Tirol in Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 7. This fixture gets under way on Tuesday 26 April 2022 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
WSG Wattens have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: D W L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
WSG Wattens's home record at Tivoli Stadion Tirol: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Lask Linz (all games): 3W 5D 2L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: D L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Lask Linz have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for WSG Wattens, 1.40 for Lask Linz — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
WSG Wattens — key trading statistics (28 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Lask Linz — key trading statistics (28 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — WSG Wattens 50% versus Lask Linz 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (WSG Wattens 57% | Lask Linz 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects WSG Wattens 1.31 xG and Lask Linz 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: WSG Wattens attack 0.971 / defence 1.257 | Lask Linz attack 0.963 / defence 1.170. League average goals — home 1.150 / away 1.238. Data: 22 WSG Wattens games / 22 Lask Linz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: WSG Wattens 33% | Draw 25% | Lask Linz 42%. Fair-value odds: WSG Wattens 3.03 | Draw 4.00 | Lask Linz 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Lask Linz are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lask Linz if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.81 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: WSG Wattens 50% | Lask Linz 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: WSG Wattens vs Lask Linz | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 7 | Venue: Tivoli Stadion Tirol • Kick-off: Tuesday 26 Apr 2022, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: WSG Wattens 33% | Draw 25% | Lask Linz 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG WSG Wattens 1.31 / Lask Linz 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: WSG Wattens attack 0.971 / def 1.257 | Lask Linz attack 0.963 / def 1.170 | league avg home 1.150 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: Lask Linz (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
WSG Wattens xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Lask Linz xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does WSG Wattens vs Lask Linz kick off?
WSG Wattens vs Lask Linz kicked off at 17:30 on Tuesday 26 April 2022 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What was the final score in WSG Wattens vs Lask Linz?
WSG Wattens 4 - 0 Lask Linz.
Where is WSG Wattens vs Lask Linz being played?
The match is being played at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What competition is WSG Wattens vs Lask Linz part of?
WSG Wattens vs Lask Linz is a Relegation Round - 7 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win WSG Wattens vs Lask Linz?
Our statistical model gives WSG Wattens a 33% chance of winning, Lask Linz a 42% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Lask Linz the favourite.
Will both teams score in WSG Wattens vs Lask Linz?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both WSG Wattens and Lask Linz will score (BTTS).
Will WSG Wattens vs Lask Linz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and Lask Linz?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are WSG Wattens and Lask Linz in?
WSG Wattens (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-L-W-W. Lask Linz (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-L-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
WSG Wattens's attacking strength (0.97x league average) is weighed against Lask Linz's defensive record (1.17x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.31. Flip it around — Lask Linz's attack (0.96x) against WSG Wattens's defence (1.26x) — and the away total comes out at 1.50.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.9%), 2-1 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lask Linz Win
33%
3.02
25%
3.98
42%
2.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.1%
Away win
1 – 2
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
WSG Wattens xG
Total xG
2.81
1.50
Lask Linz xG
3.02
33%
Home win
3.98
25%
Draw
2.39
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
22%
4.48
27%
3.69
Win to Nil
7%
13.54
11%
8.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 9.1 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 11.8 | 8.9 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.2 | 7.7 | 5.8 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for WSG Wattens vs Lask Linz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are WSG Wattens and Lask Linz expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for WSG Wattens and 1.50 for Lask Linz, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for WSG Wattens vs Lask Linz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
WSG Wattens come into this having played 28 games, going 8W 9D 11L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-W.
On the other side, Lask Linz sit at 1.21 PPG from 28 outings (8W 10D 10L), a run that reads D-L-D-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.18 PPG for WSG Wattens against 1.21 for Lask Linz. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
WSG Wattens's home form reads 3W 7D 4L across 14 games on their own ground, a 1.14 PPG return.
Away from home, Lask Linz have taken 1.07 points per game from 14 outings (3W 6D 5L).
Attack vs Defence
WSG Wattens are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.89 conceded per game recently; Lask Linz are on 1.32 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 28 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
WSG Wattens
Current Season
Lask Linz
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are WSG Wattens and Lask Linz in coming into this match?
WSG Wattens have gone 8W 9D 11L in their last 28 games (1.18 PPG), while Lask Linz have gone 8W 10D 10L in their last 28 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — WSG Wattens at home or Lask Linz away?
WSG Wattens's home record (1.14 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — WSG Wattens at home: 1.14 PPG; Lask Linz away: 1.07 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: WSG Wattens won 1-4 on 17 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, WSG Wattens have gone 1W 1D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Lask Linz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
2
WSG Wattens
1
Draws
7
Lask Linz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and Lask Linz?
From 10 meetings on record, WSG Wattens have won 2, Lask Linz have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did WSG Wattens and Lask Linz last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Lask Linz 1-0 WSG Wattens.
Who has won more matches between WSG Wattens and Lask Linz?
Lask Linz have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
WSG Wattens see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Lask Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — WSG Wattens 57%, Lask Linz 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (WSG Wattens) and 43% (Lask Linz).
On the defensive side: WSG Wattens have failed to score in 36% of games; Lask Linz in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = WSG Wattens home games / Lask Linz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when WSG Wattens play Lask Linz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of WSG Wattens's games and 57% of Lask Linz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is WSG Wattens vs Lask Linz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of WSG Wattens's recent games and 43% of Lask Linz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do WSG Wattens and Lask Linz tend to score early?
WSG Wattens have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Lask Linz in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant WSG Wattens run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Lask Linz.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
WSG Wattens beat Lask Linz 4-0 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, Relegation Round - 7, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting WSG Wattens 1.31 xG and Lask Linz 1.50 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. WSG Wattens beat their projection by 2.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Lask Linz landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of WSG Wattens attack 0.97 / defence 1.26 against Lask Linz attack 0.96 / defence 1.17, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it WSG Wattens 33% | Draw 25% | Lask Linz 42%, with Lask Linz to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual WSG Wattens win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (WSG Wattens 57%, Lask Linz 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
WSG Wattens's trading profile (28 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.
Lask Linz's trading profile (28 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — WSG Wattens 1.18 PPG, Lask Linz 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the WSG Wattens win broke the near-deadlock. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.36 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.36 average — tighter than their form line. Lask Linz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.