WSG Wattens 1-1 Austria Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Austria Vienna at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this WSG Wattens vs Austria Vienna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
WSG Wattens host Austria Vienna at Tivoli Stadion Tirol in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 31 October 2021 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
WSG Wattens — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W L D W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 2.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.20 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for WSG Wattens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, WSG Wattens have gone 1W 4D 1L this season (6 games, 1.17 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Austria Vienna stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Austria Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Austria Vienna's away record: 2W 1D 3L from 6 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.17 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: WSG Wattens 1.00 PPG, Austria Vienna 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Trading Patterns
WSG Wattens in-play and half-time data (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 50%.
Austria Vienna in-play and half-time data (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — WSG Wattens 75% and Austria Vienna 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (WSG Wattens 58% | Austria Vienna 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects WSG Wattens 1.48 xG and Austria Vienna 1.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: WSG Wattens attack 1.015 / defence 1.269 | Austria Vienna attack 0.933 / defence 1.147. League average goals — home 1.272 / away 1.395. Data: 12 WSG Wattens games / 12 Austria Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: WSG Wattens 33% | Draw 27% | Austria Vienna 40%. Fair-value odds: WSG Wattens 3.03 | Draw 3.70 | Austria Vienna 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.48 / 1.65) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Austria Vienna as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Austria Vienna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 3.13 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: WSG Wattens 83% | Austria Vienna 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: WSG Wattens vs Austria Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Tivoli Stadion Tirol • Kick-off: Sunday 31 Oct 2021, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: WSG Wattens 33% | Draw 27% | Austria Vienna 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 64% | xG WSG Wattens 1.48 / Austria Vienna 1.65 • Poisson strength factors: WSG Wattens attack 1.015 / def 1.269 | Austria Vienna attack 0.933 / def 1.147 | league avg home 1.272 / away 1.395 • Poisson stance: Austria Vienna (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
WSG Wattens xG
Expected Goals
1.65
Austria Vienna xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does WSG Wattens vs Austria Vienna kick off?
WSG Wattens vs Austria Vienna kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 31 October 2021 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What was the final score in WSG Wattens vs Austria Vienna?
WSG Wattens 1 - 1 Austria Vienna.
Where is WSG Wattens vs Austria Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What competition is WSG Wattens vs Austria Vienna part of?
WSG Wattens vs Austria Vienna is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win WSG Wattens vs Austria Vienna?
Our statistical model gives WSG Wattens a 33% chance of winning, Austria Vienna a 40% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Austria Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in WSG Wattens vs Austria Vienna?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both WSG Wattens and Austria Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will WSG Wattens vs Austria Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and Austria Vienna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are WSG Wattens and Austria Vienna in?
WSG Wattens (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-W-L-D-W. Austria Vienna (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates WSG Wattens's attack at 1.01x the league average against Austria Vienna's defence at 1.15x — combine the two and it projects 1.48 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Austria Vienna's attack versus WSG Wattens's defence, projects 1.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/12 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.8%), 2-1 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Vienna Win
33%
3.06
27%
3.68
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.8%
Away win
2 – 1
7.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
WSG Wattens xG
Total xG
3.13
1.65
Austria Vienna xG
3.06
33%
Home win
3.68
27%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.79
Clean Sheet
19%
5.22
23%
4.39
Win to Nil
6%
15.96
9%
10.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 7.2 | 6.0 | 3.3 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 10.7 | 8.8 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 7.9 | 6.5 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for WSG Wattens vs Austria Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.1%.
How many goals are WSG Wattens and Austria Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for WSG Wattens and 1.65 for Austria Vienna, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for WSG Wattens vs Austria Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
WSG Wattens's recent record stands at 2W 6D 4L from 12 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with L-W-L-D-W in the last five. The sample for WSG Wattens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Austria Vienna, meanwhile, have gone 3W 6D 3L across 12 games — 1.25 PPG, with D-W-L-D-W in their last five. The sample for Austria Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: WSG Wattens on 1.00 PPG, Austria Vienna on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, WSG Wattens have managed 1W 4D 1L from 6 games — 1.17 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Austria Vienna's away record stands at 2W 1D 3L across 6 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
WSG Wattens are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Austria Vienna are on 1.50 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: WSG Wattens have seen both teams score in 75% of their recent games; Austria Vienna in 67%.
Last 12 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
WSG Wattens
Blended
Austria Vienna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are WSG Wattens and Austria Vienna in coming into this match?
WSG Wattens have gone 2W 6D 4L in their last 12 games (1.00 PPG), while Austria Vienna have gone 3W 6D 3L in their last 12 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — WSG Wattens at home or Austria Vienna away?
WSG Wattens's home record (1.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — WSG Wattens at home: 1.17 PPG; Austria Vienna away: 1.17 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 29 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Apr 2024, when Austria Vienna won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
WSG Wattens's record when hosting Austria Vienna specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
WSG Wattens
2
Draws
7
Austria Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and Austria Vienna?
From 10 meetings on record, WSG Wattens have won 1, Austria Vienna have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did WSG Wattens and Austria Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 29 November 2025, when Austria Vienna 0-0 WSG Wattens.
Who has won more matches between WSG Wattens and Austria Vienna?
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Austria Vienna see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — WSG Wattens at 83%, Austria Vienna at 50%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (WSG Wattens) and 50% (Austria Vienna).
On the defensive side: Austria Vienna in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = WSG Wattens home games / Austria Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when WSG Wattens play Austria Vienna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of WSG Wattens's games and 50% of Austria Vienna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is WSG Wattens vs Austria Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of WSG Wattens's recent games and 50% of Austria Vienna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do WSG Wattens and Austria Vienna tend to score early?
WSG Wattens have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Austria Vienna in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
WSG Wattens and Austria Vienna share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, Regular Season - 13, as WSG Wattens and Austria Vienna drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting WSG Wattens 1.48 xG and Austria Vienna 1.65 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of WSG Wattens attack 1.01 / defence 1.27 against Austria Vienna attack 0.93 / defence 1.15, drawn from 12/12 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it WSG Wattens 33% | Draw 27% | Austria Vienna 40%, with Austria Vienna to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (WSG Wattens 58%, Austria Vienna 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 71%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
WSG Wattens's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Austria Vienna's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — WSG Wattens 1.00 PPG, Austria Vienna 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.