WSG Wattens 0-2 Austria Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Austria Vienna (39%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as WSG Wattens face Austria Vienna.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
WSG Wattens host Austria Vienna at Tivoli Stadion Tirol in Bundesliga (matchday 22). Kick-off is Sunday 16 March 2025 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Guide
WSG Wattens — last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D D D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home, WSG Wattens have gone 1W 6D 3L in their last 10 home games (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Austria Vienna stand at 8W 1D 1L — 2.50 PPG. Last five: D W L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Austria Vienna's away record over their last 10 away games: 4W 3D 3L (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.50 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Austria Vienna are 1.50 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 1.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
Austria Vienna have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 4 of the 5 H2H matches we hold against 1 for WSG Wattens.
The 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 26 Oct 2024, ended WSG Wattens 0–3 Austria Vienna — a Austria Vienna win.
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record despite being the visitors — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches. Home advantage alone is not a reason to dismiss that.
Trading Patterns
WSG Wattens in-play and half-time data (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 38%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
Austria Vienna in-play and half-time data (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; of the 11 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 27%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — WSG Wattens 47% versus Austria Vienna 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (WSG Wattens 49% | Austria Vienna 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects WSG Wattens 1.07 xG and Austria Vienna 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: WSG Wattens attack 0.806 / defence 1.007 | Austria Vienna attack 1.107 / defence 0.871. League average goals — home 1.531 / away 1.210. Data: built from WSG Wattens's last 43 games and Austria Vienna's last 43.
Result probabilities: WSG Wattens 26% | Draw 35% | Austria Vienna 39%. Fair-value odds: WSG Wattens 3.85 | Draw 2.87 | Austria Vienna 2.55. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Austria Vienna as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Austria Vienna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.42 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 56% — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (WSG Wattens's last 10 home games and Austria Vienna's last 10 away games) averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: WSG Wattens 30% (last 10 home games) | Austria Vienna 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: WSG Wattens vs Austria Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 22 | Venue: Tivoli Stadion Tirol • Kick-off: Sunday 16 March 2025 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: WSG Wattens 26% | Draw 35% | Austria Vienna 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG WSG Wattens 1.07 / Austria Vienna 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: WSG Wattens attack 0.806 / def 1.007 | Austria Vienna attack 1.107 / def 0.871 | league avg home 1.531 / away 1.210 • Poisson stance: Austria Vienna (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
WSG Wattens xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Austria Vienna xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ WSG Wattens vs Austria Vienna FAQs
What time does WSG Wattens vs Austria Vienna kick off?
WSG Wattens vs Austria Vienna kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 16 March 2025 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What was the final score in WSG Wattens vs Austria Vienna?
WSG Wattens 0 - 2 Austria Vienna.
Where is WSG Wattens vs Austria Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What competition is WSG Wattens vs Austria Vienna part of?
WSG Wattens vs Austria Vienna is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 22) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win WSG Wattens vs Austria Vienna?
Our statistical model gives WSG Wattens a 26% chance of winning, Austria Vienna a 39% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Austria Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in WSG Wattens vs Austria Vienna?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both WSG Wattens and Austria Vienna will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will WSG Wattens vs Austria Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates WSG Wattens's attack at 0.81x the league average against Austria Vienna's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.07 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Austria Vienna's attack versus WSG Wattens's defence, projects 1.35 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from WSG Wattens's last 43 games and Austria Vienna's last 43 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.5%), 0-1 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Vienna Win
26%
3.85
35%
2.87
39%
2.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.9%
Away win
1 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
WSG Wattens xG
Total xG
2.42
1.35
Austria Vienna xG
3.85
26%
Home win
2.87
35%
Draw
2.55
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
26%
3.85
34%
2.93
Win to Nil
7%
14.83
13%
7.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 11.9 | 8.1 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.8 | 8.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 6.9 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ WSG Wattens vs Austria Vienna Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for WSG Wattens vs Austria Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are WSG Wattens and Austria Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for WSG Wattens and 1.35 for Austria Vienna, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for WSG Wattens vs Austria Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
WSG Wattens's recent record stands at 11W 12D 30L from 53 games, a 0.85 PPG return, with D-D-D-L-L in the last five.
Austria Vienna, meanwhile, have gone 27W 14D 12L across 53 games — 1.79 PPG, with D-W-L-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Austria Vienna by 0.94 — a real, if not enormous, edge over WSG Wattens heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, WSG Wattens have managed 5W 9D 12L from their last 26 home games — 0.92 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Austria Vienna's away record stands at 11W 5D 10L across their last 26 away games, a 1.46 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Austria Vienna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
WSG Wattens are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.58 conceded per game recently; Austria Vienna are on 1.36 scored and 0.94 conceded.
Defensively: Austria Vienna in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
WSG Wattens
Blended
Austria Vienna
Blended
WSG Wattens (Home) vs Austria Vienna (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
WSG Wattens
Blended
Austria Vienna
Blended
❓ WSG Wattens vs Austria Vienna Form FAQs
What form are WSG Wattens and Austria Vienna in coming into this match?
WSG Wattens have gone 11W 12D 30L in their last 53 games (0.85 PPG), while Austria Vienna have gone 27W 14D 12L in their last 53 (1.79 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — WSG Wattens at home or Austria Vienna away?
Austria Vienna's away record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — WSG Wattens at home: 0.92 PPG; Austria Vienna away: 1.46 PPG.
Have WSG Wattens or Austria Vienna been keeping clean sheets recently?
WSG Wattens have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Austria Vienna in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from October 2023. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 8 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 20 Apr 2024, when Austria Vienna won Austria Vienna 3-0 WSG Wattens.
WSG Wattens's record when hosting Austria Vienna specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
WSG Wattens
2
Draws
6
Austria Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ WSG Wattens vs Austria Vienna H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and Austria Vienna?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, WSG Wattens have won 2, Austria Vienna have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did WSG Wattens and Austria Vienna last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 November 2026: WSG Wattens 1-1 Austria Vienna.
Who has won more matches between WSG Wattens and Austria Vienna?
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — WSG Wattens 42%, Austria Vienna 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (WSG Wattens) and 42% (Austria Vienna).
On the defensive side: WSG Wattens keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; WSG Wattens have failed to score in 46% of games; Austria Vienna in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = WSG Wattens home games / Austria Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ WSG Wattens vs Austria Vienna Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in WSG Wattens and Austria Vienna matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of WSG Wattens's recent matches and 50% of Austria Vienna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are WSG Wattens and Austria Vienna matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of WSG Wattens's recent games and 42% of Austria Vienna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do WSG Wattens and Austria Vienna matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of WSG Wattens's recent matches and 77% of Austria Vienna's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Austria Vienna cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over WSG Wattens.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Vienna beat WSG Wattens 0-2 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol, Regular Season - 22, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting WSG Wattens 1.07 xG and Austria Vienna 1.35 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. WSG Wattens fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of WSG Wattens attack 0.81 / defence 1.01 against Austria Vienna attack 1.11 / defence 0.87, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it WSG Wattens 26% | Draw 35% | Austria Vienna 39%, with Austria Vienna to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (WSG Wattens 49%, Austria Vienna 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
WSG Wattens's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 45% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Austria Vienna's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Austria Vienna arrived the stronger side — 1.79 PPG against 0.85. Form held, and they took the win. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.