WSG Wattens vs Austria Lustenau – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates WSG Wattens at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this WSG Wattens vs Austria Lustenau encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Austria Lustenau travel to Tivoli Stadion Tirol to take on WSG Wattens. The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 November 2026, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, WSG Wattens have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W D L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for WSG Wattens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
WSG Wattens at Tivoli Stadion Tirol this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Austria Lustenau stand at 2W 2D 5L from 9 Bundesliga matches — 0.89 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.22 per game is modest, conceding 2.11 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.11 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Austria Lustenau, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Austria Lustenau's form when playing away from home: 0W 1D 3L across 4 road games this term (0.25 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 2.25 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.25 is notably below their overall 0.89 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: WSG Wattens 1.10 PPG, Austria Lustenau 0.89 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 5 wins for WSG Wattens, 3 for Austria Lustenau and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 28 Aug 2026, ended 4–0 with WSG Wattens winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
WSG Wattens in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games).
Austria Lustenau in-play tendencies (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — WSG Wattens 44% versus Austria Lustenau 67%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (WSG Wattens 67% | Austria Lustenau 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects WSG Wattens 1.94 xG and Austria Lustenau 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: WSG Wattens attack 0.827 / defence 1.208 | Austria Lustenau attack 1.008 / defence 1.297. League average goals — home 1.806 / away 1.304. Austria Lustenau bring a strong defensive rating of 1.297 — this is suppressing WSG Wattens's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 31 WSG Wattens games / 9 Austria Lustenau games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: WSG Wattens 44% | Draw 27% | Austria Lustenau 30%. Fair-value odds: WSG Wattens 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | Austria Lustenau 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 68% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.52. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 68% — a total xG of 3.52 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.94 / 1.59) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates WSG Wattens as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on WSG Wattens offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.52 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 68% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 70%. Form rates corroborate: WSG Wattens 70% | Austria Lustenau 100% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: WSG Wattens vs Austria Lustenau | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Tivoli Stadion Tirol • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Nov 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: WSG Wattens 44% | Draw 27% | Austria Lustenau 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 68% | BTTS 70% | xG WSG Wattens 1.94 / Austria Lustenau 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: WSG Wattens attack 0.827 / def 1.208 | Austria Lustenau attack 1.008 / def 1.297 | league avg home 1.806 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: WSG Wattens (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.94
WSG Wattens xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Austria Lustenau xG
70%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
68%
Over 2.5
47%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does WSG Wattens vs Austria Lustenau kick off?
WSG Wattens vs Austria Lustenau is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 21 November 2026 at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
Where is WSG Wattens vs Austria Lustenau being played?
The match is being played at Tivoli Stadion Tirol.
What competition is WSG Wattens vs Austria Lustenau part of?
WSG Wattens vs Austria Lustenau is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win WSG Wattens vs Austria Lustenau?
Our statistical model gives WSG Wattens a 44% chance of winning, Austria Lustenau a 30% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making WSG Wattens the favourite.
Will both teams score in WSG Wattens vs Austria Lustenau?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both WSG Wattens and Austria Lustenau will score (BTTS).
Will WSG Wattens vs Austria Lustenau have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 68%.
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and Austria Lustenau?
Record (9 meetings): WSG Wattens 5W | Draws 1 | Austria Lustenau 3W.
What form are WSG Wattens and Austria Lustenau in?
WSG Wattens (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. Austria Lustenau (all comps): 2W-2D-5L in 9 | 0.89 PPG | GF 1.22 / GA 2.11 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates WSG Wattens's attack at 0.83x the league average against Austria Lustenau's defence at 1.30x — combine the two and it projects 1.94 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Austria Lustenau's attack versus WSG Wattens's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
WSG Wattens Win
44%
2.28
27%
3.76
30%
3.38
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
7.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.94
WSG Wattens xG
Total xG
3.52
1.59
Austria Lustenau xG
2.28
44%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
3.38
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
68%
Over 2.5
1.47
32%
Under 2.5
3.12
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.42
30%
BTTS No
3.38
Clean Sheet
20%
4.89
14%
6.93
Win to Nil
9%
11.17
4%
23.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 4.7 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 5.7 | 9.1 | 7.2 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.8 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 5.7 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for WSG Wattens vs Austria Lustenau?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are WSG Wattens and Austria Lustenau expected to score?
The model projects 1.94 expected goals for WSG Wattens and 1.59 for Austria Lustenau, a combined total of 3.52.
How confident is the prediction model for WSG Wattens vs Austria Lustenau?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
WSG Wattens come into this having played 9 games, going 3W 2D 4L for 1.22 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-W. The sample for WSG Wattens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Austria Lustenau sit at 0.89 PPG from 9 outings (2W 2D 5L), a run that reads L-L-W-L-L across their last five. The sample for Austria Lustenau is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: WSG Wattens on 1.22 PPG, Austria Lustenau on 0.89. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
WSG Wattens's home form reads 0W 2D 2L across 4 games on their own ground, a 0.50 PPG return. That actually lags their 1.22 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Austria Lustenau have taken 0.25 points per game from 4 outings (0W 1D 3L). That's a step down from their 0.89 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Austria Lustenau's season.
The Goals Picture
WSG Wattens are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Austria Lustenau are on 1.22 scored and 2.11 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Austria Lustenau in 67%.
Last 9 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
WSG Wattens
Blended
Austria Lustenau
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are WSG Wattens and Austria Lustenau in coming into this match?
WSG Wattens have gone 3W 2D 4L in their last 9 games (1.22 PPG), while Austria Lustenau have gone 2W 2D 5L in their last 9 (0.89 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — WSG Wattens at home or Austria Lustenau away?
WSG Wattens's home record (0.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — WSG Wattens at home: 0.50 PPG; Austria Lustenau away: 0.25 PPG.
Have WSG Wattens or Austria Lustenau been keeping clean sheets recently?
WSG Wattens have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Austria Lustenau in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between WSG Wattens and Austria Lustenau runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 28 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Aug 2026, when WSG Wattens won 0-4 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
WSG Wattens's record when hosting Austria Lustenau specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
5
WSG Wattens
1
Draws
3
Austria Lustenau
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between WSG Wattens and Austria Lustenau?
From 9 meetings on record, WSG Wattens have won 5, Austria Lustenau have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did WSG Wattens and Austria Lustenau last play each other?
They last met on 28 August 2026, when Austria Lustenau 0-4 WSG Wattens.
Who has won more matches between WSG Wattens and Austria Lustenau?
WSG Wattens have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Austria Lustenau are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — WSG Wattens at 75%, Austria Lustenau at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for WSG Wattens and 75% for Austria Lustenau. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = WSG Wattens home games / Austria Lustenau away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when WSG Wattens play Austria Lustenau?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of WSG Wattens's games and 100% of Austria Lustenau's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is WSG Wattens vs Austria Lustenau usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of WSG Wattens's matches and 75% of Austria Lustenau's.
Do WSG Wattens and Austria Lustenau tend to score early?
WSG Wattens have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Austria Lustenau in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.