Wolfsberger AC vs Ried – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wolfsberger AC at 35%, yet in-form Ried provide a compelling counter-argument — this Wolfsberger AC vs Ried fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 13 as Wolfsberger AC welcome Ried to Lavanttal-Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 22 November 2026 at 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Wolfsberger AC have gone 1W 2D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.50 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Wolfsberger AC have posted 3W 4D 3L at Lavanttal-Arena — 1.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Lavanttal-Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Wolfsberger AC are significantly better at Lavanttal-Arena than their overall form suggests.
Ried — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Ried, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Ried have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Ried's 1.40 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of Wolfsberger AC's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 10 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Wolfsberger AC, 5 for Ried and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Sep 2026, ended 1–4 with Ried winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Wolfsberger AC trading profile (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
Ried trading profile (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Wolfsberger AC 55% versus Ried 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wolfsberger AC 60% | Ried 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wolfsberger AC 1.52 xG and Ried 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wolfsberger AC attack 0.754 / defence 1.151 | Ried attack 0.999 / defence 1.114. League average goals — home 1.806 / away 1.304. Wolfsberger AC's attack strength of 0.754 is below the league average — the 1.52 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 31 Wolfsberger AC games / 31 Ried games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 35% | Draw 30% | Ried 35%. Fair-value odds: Wolfsberger AC 2.86 | Draw 3.33 | Ried 2.86. The draw (30%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.02. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.02 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.52 / 1.50) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 30% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 35% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 3.02 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 58% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates are neutral: Wolfsberger AC 30% | Ried 60%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wolfsberger AC vs Ried | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Lavanttal-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Nov 2026, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 35% | Draw 30% | Ried 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 64% | xG Wolfsberger AC 1.52 / Ried 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: Wolfsberger AC attack 0.754 / def 1.151 | Ried attack 0.999 / def 1.114 | league avg home 1.806 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: Draw (30%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
Wolfsberger AC xG
Expected Goals
1.50
Ried xG
64%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
36%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wolfsberger AC vs Ried kick off?
Wolfsberger AC vs Ried is scheduled to kick off at 13:30 on Sunday 22 November 2026 at Lavanttal-Arena.
Where is Wolfsberger AC vs Ried being played?
The match is being played at Lavanttal-Arena.
What competition is Wolfsberger AC vs Ried part of?
Wolfsberger AC vs Ried is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Wolfsberger AC vs Ried?
Our statistical model gives Wolfsberger AC a 35% chance of winning, Ried a 35% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Wolfsberger AC vs Ried?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Wolfsberger AC and Ried will score (BTTS).
Will Wolfsberger AC vs Ried have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and Ried?
Record (10 meetings): Wolfsberger AC 3W | Draws 2 | Ried 5W.
What form are Wolfsberger AC and Ried in?
Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Ried (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Wolfsberger AC's attack at 0.75x the league average against Ried's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 1.52 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Ried's attack versus Wolfsberger AC's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 31/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.5%), 1-2 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Wolfsberger AC Win
35%
2.83
30%
3.33
35%
2.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
1 – 2
8.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
Wolfsberger AC xG
Total xG
3.02
1.50
Ried xG
2.83
35%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
2.89
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
36%
Over 3.5
2.78
64%
Under 3.5
1.56
19%
Over 4.5
5.26
81%
Under 4.5
1.23
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.57
36%
BTTS No
2.74
Clean Sheet
22%
4.48
22%
4.56
Win to Nil
8%
12.66
8%
13.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.9 | 7.3 | 5.5 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.1 | 8.4 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 8.5 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 4.3 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wolfsberger AC vs Ried?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Wolfsberger AC and Ried expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for Wolfsberger AC and 1.50 for Ried, a combined total of 3.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Wolfsberger AC vs Ried?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Wolfsberger AC's recent record stands at 12W 10D 20L from 42 games, a 1.10 PPG return, with L-L-L-L-L in the last five. The sample for Wolfsberger AC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ried, meanwhile, have gone 18W 7D 17L across 42 games — 1.45 PPG, with L-D-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Ried is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wolfsberger AC on 1.10 PPG, Ried on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Wolfsberger AC have managed 7W 7D 6L from 20 games — 1.40 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ried's away record stands at 5W 4D 11L across 20 trips, a 0.95 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.45 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ried's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wolfsberger AC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Wolfsberger AC are averaging 1.17 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Ried are on 1.33 scored and 1.40 conceded.
Last 42 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wolfsberger AC
Blended
Ried
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wolfsberger AC and Ried in coming into this match?
Wolfsberger AC have gone 12W 10D 20L in their last 42 games (1.10 PPG), while Ried have gone 18W 7D 17L in their last 42 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wolfsberger AC at home or Ried away?
Wolfsberger AC's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wolfsberger AC at home: 1.40 PPG; Ried away: 0.95 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 20 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Ried have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 20 Sep 2026, when Ried won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Wolfsberger AC's record when hosting Ried specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Wolfsberger AC
2
Draws
5
Ried
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and Ried?
From 10 meetings on record, Wolfsberger AC have won 3, Ried have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Wolfsberger AC and Ried last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2026, when Ried 4-1 Wolfsberger AC.
Who has won more matches between Wolfsberger AC and Ried?
Ried have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Ried are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wolfsberger AC 50%, Ried 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Wolfsberger AC) and 55% (Ried). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Wolfsberger AC keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Ried in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wolfsberger AC home games / Ried away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wolfsberger AC play Ried?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 50% of Wolfsberger AC's games and 65% of Ried's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wolfsberger AC vs Ried usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 55% of Wolfsberger AC's matches and 55% of Ried's.
Do Wolfsberger AC and Ried tend to score early?
Wolfsberger AC have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Ried in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.