Wolfsberger AC 1-5 Lask Linz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Wolfsberger AC at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Wolfsberger AC vs Lask Linz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Lask Linz travel to Lavanttal Arena to take on Wolfsberger AC. The game is scheduled for Saturday 6 August 2022, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Wolfsberger AC have gone 3W 3D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: L W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Wolfsberger AC have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Lavanttal Arena, Wolfsberger AC have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Wolfsberger AC are significantly better at Lavanttal Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lask Linz stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Lask Linz have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lask Linz away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Wolfsberger AC 1.20 PPG, Lask Linz 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Wolfsberger AC, 0 for Lask Linz and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 6 Mar 2022, ended 1–0 with Wolfsberger AC winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Wolfsberger AC trading profile (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
Lask Linz trading profile (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Wolfsberger AC 62% and Lask Linz 59% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Wolfsberger AC 68% | Lask Linz 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Wolfsberger AC 1.40 xG and Lask Linz 1.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Wolfsberger AC attack 0.964 / defence 0.983 | Lask Linz attack 1.056 / defence 0.927. League average goals — home 1.562 / away 0.966. Data: 24 Wolfsberger AC games / 24 Lask Linz games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 46% | Draw 27% | Lask Linz 27%. Fair-value odds: Wolfsberger AC 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Lask Linz 3.70. Wolfsberger AC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Wolfsberger AC as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Wolfsberger AC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.40 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 43% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. This conflicts with form data: Wolfsberger AC 70% | Lask Linz 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (24 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Wolfsberger AC vs Lask Linz | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Lavanttal Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Aug 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Wolfsberger AC 46% | Draw 27% | Lask Linz 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Wolfsberger AC 1.40 / Lask Linz 1.00 • Poisson strength factors: Wolfsberger AC attack 0.964 / def 0.983 | Lask Linz attack 1.056 / def 0.927 | league avg home 1.562 / away 0.966 • Poisson stance: Wolfsberger AC (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.40
Wolfsberger AC xG
Expected Goals
1.00
Lask Linz xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Wolfsberger AC vs Lask Linz kick off?
Wolfsberger AC vs Lask Linz kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 6 August 2022 at Lavanttal Arena.
What was the final score in Wolfsberger AC vs Lask Linz?
Wolfsberger AC 1 - 5 Lask Linz.
Where is Wolfsberger AC vs Lask Linz being played?
The match is being played at Lavanttal Arena.
What competition is Wolfsberger AC vs Lask Linz part of?
Wolfsberger AC vs Lask Linz is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Wolfsberger AC vs Lask Linz?
Our statistical model gives Wolfsberger AC a 46% chance of winning, Lask Linz a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Wolfsberger AC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Wolfsberger AC vs Lask Linz?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Wolfsberger AC and Lask Linz will score (BTTS).
Will Wolfsberger AC vs Lask Linz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and Lask Linz?
Record (2 meetings): Wolfsberger AC 2W | Draws 0 | Lask Linz 0W.
What form are Wolfsberger AC and Lask Linz in?
Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-W-D-D. Lask Linz (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Wolfsberger AC's attack rating (0.96) and Lask Linz's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.40 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lask Linz's attack versus Wolfsberger AC's defence, projects 1.00 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (24/24 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.0%), 0-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Wolfsberger AC Win
46%
2.18
27%
3.70
27%
3.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
9.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.40
Wolfsberger AC xG
Total xG
2.40
1.00
Lask Linz xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
3.70
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
25%
4.04
Win to Nil
17%
5.93
7%
14.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.7 | 12.7 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 8.9 | 4.5 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.1 | 4.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Wolfsberger AC vs Lask Linz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Wolfsberger AC and Lask Linz expected to score?
The model projects 1.40 expected goals for Wolfsberger AC and 1.00 for Lask Linz, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Wolfsberger AC vs Lask Linz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Wolfsberger AC's recent record stands at 14W 7D 13L from 34 games, a 1.44 PPG return, with L-W-W-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lask Linz, meanwhile, have gone 9W 13D 12L across 34 games — 1.18 PPG, with D-W-L-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for Lask Linz, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Wolfsberger AC on 1.44 PPG, Lask Linz on 1.18. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Wolfsberger AC have managed 8W 3D 6L from 17 games — 1.59 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lask Linz's away record stands at 2W 8D 7L across 17 trips, a 0.82 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Wolfsberger AC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Wolfsberger AC are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.65 conceded per game recently; Lask Linz are on 1.41 scored and 1.35 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Wolfsberger AC have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 34 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Wolfsberger AC
Early Season
Lask Linz
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Wolfsberger AC and Lask Linz in coming into this match?
Wolfsberger AC have gone 14W 7D 13L in their last 34 games (1.44 PPG), while Lask Linz have gone 9W 13D 12L in their last 34 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Wolfsberger AC at home or Lask Linz away?
Wolfsberger AC's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Wolfsberger AC at home: 1.59 PPG; Lask Linz away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Wolfsberger AC and Lask Linz runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Aug 2022, when Lask Linz won 1-5 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Wolfsberger AC's record when hosting Lask Linz specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Wolfsberger AC
0
Draws
3
Lask Linz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Wolfsberger AC and Lask Linz?
From 10 meetings on record, Wolfsberger AC have won 7, Lask Linz have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Wolfsberger AC and Lask Linz last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Lask Linz 3-1 Wolfsberger AC.
Who has won more matches between Wolfsberger AC and Lask Linz?
Wolfsberger AC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Lask Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Wolfsberger AC 65%, Lask Linz 65% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 65% (Wolfsberger AC) and 47% (Lask Linz). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 29% and 29% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lask Linz in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Wolfsberger AC home games / Lask Linz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Wolfsberger AC play Lask Linz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Wolfsberger AC's games and 65% of Lask Linz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Wolfsberger AC vs Lask Linz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Wolfsberger AC's matches and 47% of Lask Linz's.
Do Wolfsberger AC and Lask Linz tend to score early?
Wolfsberger AC have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Lask Linz in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Lask Linz run riot with a 1-5 hammering of Wolfsberger AC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lask Linz beat Wolfsberger AC 1-5 at Lavanttal Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Wolfsberger AC 1.40 xG and Lask Linz 1.00 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-5 for 6 actual goals. Lask Linz outscored their 1.00 projection by 4.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Wolfsberger AC attack 0.96 / defence 0.98 against Lask Linz attack 1.06 / defence 0.93, drawn from 24/24 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Wolfsberger AC 46% | Draw 27% | Lask Linz 27%, with Wolfsberger AC to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Lask Linz win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. Over 3.5 was 22% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Wolfsberger AC 68%, Lask Linz 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Lask Linz's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Wolfsberger AC 1.44 PPG, Lask Linz 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lask Linz win broke the near-deadlock. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lask Linz (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.