TSV Hartberg 2-0 Ried – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates TSV Hartberg at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this TSV Hartberg vs Ried fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Ried make the trip to PROfertil ARENA to face TSV Hartberg in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6. The match kicks off on Saturday 27 August 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
TSV Hartberg have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D W L L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. TSV Hartberg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
TSV Hartberg's home record at PROfertil ARENA: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Ried (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L W D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Ried have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Ried's away record: 1W 3D 6L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.10 for TSV Hartberg, 0.80 for Ried — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 4 meetings: TSV Hartberg 0W, Ried 1W, 3D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.2 per game from 4 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 20 May 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
TSV Hartberg half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Ried half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — TSV Hartberg 61% and Ried 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 50% | Ried 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.25 xG and Ried 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 0.838 / defence 1.097 | Ried attack 0.752 / defence 0.945. League average goals — home 1.575 / away 1.176. Data: 26 TSV Hartberg games / 27 Ried games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 43% | Draw 29% | Ried 29%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 2.33 | Draw 3.45 | Ried 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is TSV Hartberg at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.22 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 38% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.2 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: TSV Hartberg 50% | Ried 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs Ried | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: PROfertil ARENA • Kick-off: Saturday 27 Aug 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 43% | Draw 29% | Ried 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 44% | xG TSV Hartberg 1.25 / Ried 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 0.838 / def 1.097 | Ried attack 0.752 / def 0.945 | league avg home 1.575 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: TSV Hartberg (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Ried xG
44%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does TSV Hartberg vs Ried kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs Ried kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 27 August 2022 at PROfertil ARENA.
What was the final score in TSV Hartberg vs Ried?
TSV Hartberg 2 - 0 Ried.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs Ried being played?
The match is being played at PROfertil ARENA.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs Ried part of?
TSV Hartberg vs Ried is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs Ried?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 43% chance of winning, Ried a 29% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making TSV Hartberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs Ried?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both TSV Hartberg and Ried will score (BTTS).
Will TSV Hartberg vs Ried have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Ried?
Record (4 meetings): TSV Hartberg 0W | Draws 3 | Ried 1W.
What form are TSV Hartberg and Ried in?
TSV Hartberg (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Ried (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from TSV Hartberg's attack rating (0.84) and Ried's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Ried's attack (0.75x) against TSV Hartberg's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 0.97.
These ratings are built from 26/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.6%), 1-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
TSV Hartberg Win
43%
2.35
29%
3.49
29%
3.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
10.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
2.22
0.97
Ried xG
2.35
43%
Home win
3.49
29%
Draw
3.48
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
38%
2.64
29%
3.48
Win to Nil
16%
6.19
8%
12.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.9 | 10.6 | 5.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.2 | 6.4 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 8.2 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs Ried?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and Ried expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 0.97 for Ried, a combined total of 2.22.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs Ried?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
TSV Hartberg's recent record stands at 8W 12D 16L from 36 games, a 1.00 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Ried, meanwhile, have gone 8W 14D 14L across 36 games — 1.06 PPG, with L-W-D-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Ried, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.00 PPG for TSV Hartberg against 1.06 for Ried. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, TSV Hartberg have managed 4W 6D 8L from 18 games — 1.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Ried's away record stands at 2W 5D 11L across 18 trips, a 0.61 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.06 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ried's season.
Attack vs Defence
TSV Hartberg are averaging 1.31 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Ried are on 1.14 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: TSV Hartberg have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Ried in 67%.
Last 36 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Early Season
Ried
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are TSV Hartberg and Ried in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 8W 12D 16L in their last 36 games (1.00 PPG), while Ried have gone 8W 14D 14L in their last 36 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — TSV Hartberg at home or Ried away?
TSV Hartberg's home record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — TSV Hartberg at home: 1.00 PPG; Ried away: 0.61 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 22 November 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: TSV Hartberg have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, TSV Hartberg have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Ried — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
TSV Hartberg
3
Draws
1
Ried
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Ried?
From 10 meetings on record, TSV Hartberg have won 6, Ried have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and Ried last play each other?
They last met on 22 November 2025, when TSV Hartberg 2-0 Ried.
Who has won more matches between TSV Hartberg and Ried?
TSV Hartberg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Ried are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — TSV Hartberg 61%, Ried 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (TSV Hartberg) and 33% (Ried).
On the defensive side: TSV Hartberg have failed to score in 33% of games; Ried in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / Ried away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when TSV Hartberg play Ried?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of TSV Hartberg's games and 56% of Ried's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is TSV Hartberg vs Ried usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of TSV Hartberg's recent games and 33% of Ried's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do TSV Hartberg and Ried tend to score early?
TSV Hartberg have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Ried in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
TSV Hartberg cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Ried.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
TSV Hartberg beat Ried 2-0 at PROfertil ARENA, Regular Season - 6, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.25 xG and Ried 0.97 xG, a combined 2.22. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Ried landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 0.84 / defence 1.10 against Ried attack 0.75 / defence 0.94, drawn from 26/27 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 43% | Draw 29% | Ried 29%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 50%, Ried 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not.
Ried's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — TSV Hartberg 1.00 PPG, Ried 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the TSV Hartberg win broke the near-deadlock. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.39 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.