TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson rates TSV Hartberg at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this TSV Hartberg vs Rapid Vienna encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 17 as TSV Hartberg welcome Rapid Vienna to Stadion Hartberg. Kick-off is set for Saturday 23 January 2027 at 16:00 UTC.

Form Guide

TSV Hartberg — All Games: 4W 0D 6L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.20 points per game. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. TSV Hartberg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

In front of their own supporters this season, TSV Hartberg have posted 2W 2D 6L at Stadion Hartberg — 0.80 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.

Across all Bundesliga games this season, Rapid Vienna have recorded 5W 0D 5L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Rapid Vienna have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Rapid Vienna's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.

The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (TSV Hartberg) versus 1.50 (Rapid Vienna). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. TSV Hartberg register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Rapid Vienna in 70% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

The rivalry is an even one: 5 wins apiece for TSV Hartberg, 3 for Rapid Vienna and 2 shared spoils from 10 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.

The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 22 Apr 2026, ended 2–0 with TSV Hartberg winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

TSV Hartberg in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

Rapid Vienna in-play tendencies (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 51% versus Rapid Vienna 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 46% | Rapid Vienna 46%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.64 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.53 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 0.798 / defence 1.232 | Rapid Vienna attack 1.076 / defence 1.261. League average goals — home 1.628 / away 1.158. TSV Hartberg's attack strength of 0.798 is below the league average — the 1.64 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Rapid Vienna bring a strong defensive rating of 1.261 — this is suppressing TSV Hartberg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 27 TSV Hartberg games / 27 Rapid Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 39% | Draw 26% | Rapid Vienna 35%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 2.56 | Draw 3.85 | Rapid Vienna 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.64 / 1.53) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, TSV Hartberg are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 3.17 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 61% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: TSV Hartberg 60% | Rapid Vienna 70% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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