TSV Hartberg 3-3 Lask Linz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Lask Linz (48%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as TSV Hartberg face Lask Linz.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Profertil Arena plays host to TSV Hartberg versus Lask Linz in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Sunday 20 September 2026 at 12:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
TSV Hartberg have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: L L W W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. TSV Hartberg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
TSV Hartberg's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at Profertil Arena this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Lask Linz's overall Bundesliga record this term: 9W 0D 1L from 10 games (2.70 PPG). Last five: W W W W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Lask Linz have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lask Linz away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. They are averaging 2.30 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.80 is notably below their overall 2.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Lask Linz arrive in superior form — a 1.70 PPG advantage (2.70 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — TSV Hartberg have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Lask Linz in 80%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Lask Linz hold the superior head-to-head record in this fixture, claiming 4 wins from 9 meetings. The hosts have won just 0 times in that span.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 26 Apr 2026, ended 1–5 with Lask Linz winning.
It is worth noting that Lask Linz have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
TSV Hartberg half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Lask Linz half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 53% versus Lask Linz 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 47% | Lask Linz 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.23 xG and Lask Linz 1.75 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 0.809 / defence 1.185 | Lask Linz attack 1.230 / defence 0.910. League average goals — home 1.667 / away 1.199. Lask Linz have an above-average attack strength of 1.230 — the away xG of 1.75 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 28 TSV Hartberg games / 28 Lask Linz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 25% | Draw 27% | Lask Linz 48%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 4.00 | Draw 3.70 | Lask Linz 2.08. Lask Linz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.98. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.98 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.23 / 1.75) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Lask Linz as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lask Linz if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.98 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 57% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: TSV Hartberg 60% | Lask Linz 80% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Profertil Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Sep 2026, 12:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 25% | Draw 27% | Lask Linz 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 60% | xG TSV Hartberg 1.23 / Lask Linz 1.75 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 0.809 / def 1.185 | Lask Linz attack 1.230 / def 0.910 | league avg home 1.667 / away 1.199 • Poisson stance: Lask Linz (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
1.75
Lask Linz xG
60%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz kicked off at 12:30 on Sunday 20 September 2026 at Profertil Arena.
What was the final score in TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz?
TSV Hartberg 3 - 3 Lask Linz.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz being played?
The match is being played at Profertil Arena.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz part of?
TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 25% chance of winning, Lask Linz a 48% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Lask Linz the favourite.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both TSV Hartberg and Lask Linz will score (BTTS).
Will TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Lask Linz?
Record (9 meetings): TSV Hartberg 0W | Draws 5 | Lask Linz 4W.
What form are TSV Hartberg and Lask Linz in?
TSV Hartberg (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-W-W-D. Lask Linz (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates TSV Hartberg's attack at 0.81x the league average against Lask Linz's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lask Linz's attack (1.23x) against TSV Hartberg's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.75.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.6%), 0-2 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Lask Linz Win
25%
4.00
27%
3.66
48%
2.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.6%
Away win
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
2.98
1.75
Lask Linz xG
4.00
25%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
2.10
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.66
40%
BTTS No
2.52
Clean Sheet
17%
5.74
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
4%
23.00
14%
7.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.1 | 8.9 | 7.8 | 4.5 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 6.3 | 10.9 | 9.6 | 5.6 | 2.4 | 0.9 |
| 2 | 3.8 | 6.7 | 5.9 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.4%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and Lask Linz expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 1.75 for Lask Linz, a combined total of 2.98.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
TSV Hartberg's recent record stands at 12W 13D 13L from 38 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with L-L-W-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lask Linz, meanwhile, have gone 22W 7D 9L across 38 games — 1.92 PPG, with W-W-W-W-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Lask Linz, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lask Linz by 0.63 — a real, if not enormous, edge over TSV Hartberg heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, TSV Hartberg have managed 5W 5D 9L from 19 games — 1.05 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lask Linz's away record stands at 9W 4D 6L across 19 trips, a 1.63 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lask Linz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
TSV Hartberg are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Lask Linz are on 1.89 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Early Season
Lask Linz
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are TSV Hartberg and Lask Linz in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 12W 13D 13L in their last 38 games (1.29 PPG), while Lask Linz have gone 22W 7D 9L in their last 38 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — TSV Hartberg at home or Lask Linz away?
Lask Linz's away record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — TSV Hartberg at home: 1.05 PPG; Lask Linz away: 1.63 PPG.
Have TSV Hartberg or Lask Linz been keeping clean sheets recently?
TSV Hartberg have kept a clean sheet in 26% of their recent games, Lask Linz in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since August 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 20 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lask Linz won 1-5 on 26 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, TSV Hartberg have gone 0W 2D 3L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Lask Linz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
TSV Hartberg
6
Draws
4
Lask Linz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Lask Linz?
From 10 meetings on record, TSV Hartberg have won 0, Lask Linz have won 4, and 6 have been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and Lask Linz last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2026, when TSV Hartberg 3-3 Lask Linz.
Who has won more matches between TSV Hartberg and Lask Linz?
Lask Linz have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Lask Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — TSV Hartberg 58%, Lask Linz 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (TSV Hartberg) and 63% (Lask Linz). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 32% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: TSV Hartberg have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / Lask Linz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when TSV Hartberg play Lask Linz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of TSV Hartberg's games and 63% of Lask Linz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of TSV Hartberg's matches and 63% of Lask Linz's.
Do TSV Hartberg and Lask Linz tend to score early?
TSV Hartberg have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Lask Linz in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
TSV Hartberg and Lask Linz share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Profertil Arena, Regular Season - 7, as TSV Hartberg and Lask Linz drew 3-3 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.23 xG and Lask Linz 1.75 xG, a combined 2.98. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. TSV Hartberg beat their projection by 1.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Lask Linz outscored their 1.75 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 0.81 / defence 1.19 against Lask Linz attack 1.23 / defence 0.91, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 25% | Draw 27% | Lask Linz 48%, with Lask Linz to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 47%, Lask Linz 63%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Lask Linz's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Lask Linz arrived the stronger side — 1.92 PPG against 1.29. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.16 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.63 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Lask Linz (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.79 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.37 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.