TSV Hartberg 0-1 Lask Linz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lask Linz at 35% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
PROfertil ARENA plays host to TSV Hartberg versus Lask Linz in Bundesliga (Relegation Round - 3). Kick-off: Saturday 12 April 2025 at 17:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
TSV Hartberg have collected 1.20 PPG across their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
TSV Hartberg's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Lask Linz's record over their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Lask Linz away from home: 5W 2D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Lask Linz arrive in superior form — a 0.50 PPG advantage (1.70 vs 1.20) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (from TSV Hartberg's last 10 home games and Lask Linz's last 10 away games) — both teams have scored in 70% of TSV Hartberg's games and 70% of Lask Linz's. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, Lask Linz edge it 1 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 2 Nov 2024, ended TSV Hartberg 1–1 Lask Linz — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading
TSV Hartberg half-time and goal-timing data (last 56 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 15 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).
Lask Linz half-time and goal-timing data (last 56 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 59% versus Lask Linz 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 61% | Lask Linz 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.31 xG and Lask Linz 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 0.843 / defence 1.072 | Lask Linz attack 1.050 / defence 0.977. League average goals — home 1.597 / away 1.200. Data: built from TSV Hartberg's last 44 games and Lask Linz's last 44.
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 33% | Draw 32% | Lask Linz 35%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 3.01 | Draw 3.13 | Lask Linz 2.87. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 57% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 57% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Lask Linz as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lask Linz if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: TSV Hartberg 70% (last 10 home games) | Lask Linz 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 3 | Venue: PROfertil ARENA • Kick-off: Saturday 12 April 2025 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 33% | Draw 32% | Lask Linz 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 57% (No 43%) | xG TSV Hartberg 1.31 / Lask Linz 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 0.843 / def 1.072 | Lask Linz attack 1.050 / def 0.977 | league avg home 1.597 / away 1.200 • Poisson stance: Lask Linz (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Lask Linz xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz FAQs
What time does TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 12 April 2025 at PROfertil ARENA.
What was the final score in TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz?
TSV Hartberg 0 - 1 Lask Linz.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz being played?
The match is being played at PROfertil ARENA.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz part of?
TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz is a Bundesliga fixture (Relegation Round - 3) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 33% chance of winning, Lask Linz a 35% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Lask Linz the favourite.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both TSV Hartberg and Lask Linz will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates TSV Hartberg's attack at 0.84x the league average against Lask Linz's defence at 0.98x — combine the two and it projects 1.31 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Lask Linz's attack (1.05x) against TSV Hartberg's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from TSV Hartberg's last 44 games and Lask Linz's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.6%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lask Linz Win
33%
3.01
32%
3.13
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
2.67
1.35
Lask Linz xG
3.01
33%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
26%
3.86
27%
3.72
Win to Nil
9%
11.61
9%
10.69
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.4 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.1 | 5.5 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and Lask Linz expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 1.35 for Lask Linz, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
TSV Hartberg's recent record stands at 19W 15D 22L from 56 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-W in the last five.
Lask Linz, meanwhile, have gone 25W 14D 17L across 56 games — 1.59 PPG, with W-W-L-W-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.29 PPG for TSV Hartberg against 1.59 for Lask Linz. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, TSV Hartberg have managed 10W 7D 11L from their last 28 home games — 1.32 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Lask Linz's away record stands at 11W 8D 9L across their last 28 away games, a 1.46 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
TSV Hartberg are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.52 conceded per game recently; Lask Linz are on 1.39 scored and 1.18 conceded.
Last 56 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Blended
Lask Linz
Blended
TSV Hartberg (Home) vs Lask Linz (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
TSV Hartberg
Blended
Lask Linz
Blended
❓ TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz Form FAQs
What form are TSV Hartberg and Lask Linz in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 19W 15D 22L in their last 56 games (1.29 PPG), while Lask Linz have gone 25W 14D 17L in their last 56 (1.59 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — TSV Hartberg at home or Lask Linz away?
Lask Linz's away record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — TSV Hartberg at home: 1.32 PPG; Lask Linz away: 1.46 PPG.
Have TSV Hartberg or Lask Linz been keeping clean sheets recently?
TSV Hartberg have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Lask Linz in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2024 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 20 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lask Linz won TSV Hartberg 1-5 Lask Linz on 26 Apr 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, TSV Hartberg have gone 0W 2D 3L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Lask Linz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
0
TSV Hartberg
6
Draws
4
Lask Linz
Recent Meetings
❓ TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Lask Linz?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, TSV Hartberg have won 0, Lask Linz have won 4, and 6 have been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and Lask Linz last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 September 2026: TSV Hartberg 3-3 Lask Linz.
Who has won more matches between TSV Hartberg and Lask Linz?
Lask Linz have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Lask Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — TSV Hartberg 61%, Lask Linz 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (TSV Hartberg) and 50% (Lask Linz).
On the defensive side: Lask Linz in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / Lask Linz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ TSV Hartberg vs Lask Linz Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in TSV Hartberg and Lask Linz matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of TSV Hartberg's games and 57% of Lask Linz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are TSV Hartberg and Lask Linz matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of TSV Hartberg's recent games and 50% of Lask Linz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do TSV Hartberg and Lask Linz matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 75% of TSV Hartberg's recent matches and 75% of Lask Linz's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lask Linz edge out TSV Hartberg 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lask Linz beat TSV Hartberg 0-1 at PROfertil ARENA, Relegation Round - 3, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.31 xG and Lask Linz 1.35 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. TSV Hartberg fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 0.84 / defence 1.07 against Lask Linz attack 1.05 / defence 0.98, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 33% | Draw 32% | Lask Linz 35%, with Lask Linz to win its most likely call at 35%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 61%, Lask Linz 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Lask Linz's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — TSV Hartberg 1.29 PPG, Lask Linz 1.59 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lask Linz win broke the near-deadlock. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.21 scoring average — below par going forward. Lask Linz (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.