TSV Hartberg vs Grazer AK – Pre-Match Analysis

Poisson rates TSV Hartberg at 67% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this TSV Hartberg vs Grazer AK encounter.

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Pre-Match Analysis

TSV Hartberg and Grazer AK meet at Stadion Hartberg in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 5 December 2026 at 16:00 UTC.

Current Form

TSV Hartberg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 4W 2D 4L from 10 games (1.40 PPG). Last five: W D D W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 2.00 conceded. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.

TSV Hartberg's home record at Stadion Hartberg: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion Hartberg this season.

Grazer AK have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: D W D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Grazer AK, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Grazer AK's form when playing away from home: 3W 0D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game.

Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for TSV Hartberg against 1.20 for Grazer AK. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record favours TSV Hartberg, who have won 3 of the last 6 meetings against Grazer AK — a 3D 0W return for the visitors.

The 6 previous meetings have averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Feb 2026, ended 1–0 with TSV Hartberg winning.

The historical record gives TSV Hartberg a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

Trading

TSV Hartberg half-time and goal-timing data (41 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 32% of games.

Grazer AK half-time and goal-timing data (41 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 56% versus Grazer AK 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 51% | Grazer AK 61%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 2.95 xG and Grazer AK 1.44 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 1.094 / defence 1.332 | Grazer AK attack 0.827 / defence 1.493. League average goals — home 1.806 / away 1.304. Grazer AK bring a strong defensive rating of 1.493 — this is suppressing TSV Hartberg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 31 TSV Hartberg games / 31 Grazer AK games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 67% | Draw 18% | Grazer AK 15%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 1.49 | Draw 5.56 | Grazer AK 6.67. The model has a clear lean to TSV Hartberg (67%) — a 52pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 81% | BTTS probability 74% | Total xG 4.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 81% — a total xG of 4.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% reflects that both xG figures (2.95 / 1.44) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, TSV Hartberg are the pick at 67% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 4.39 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 81% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

Poisson assigns a 74% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: TSV Hartberg 70% | Grazer AK 40% BTTS from recent games.

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