TSV Hartberg 0-1 Austria Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Austria Vienna at 39% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
TSV Hartberg host Austria Vienna at Stadion Hartberg in Bundesliga, Championship Group - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 22 March 2026 at 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, TSV Hartberg have gone 3W 6D 1L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D W D D D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
TSV Hartberg at Stadion Hartberg this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Austria Vienna stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L D W L. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.40. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Austria Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Austria Vienna have gone 6W 0D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.80 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (TSV Hartberg) versus 1.70 (Austria Vienna). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, TSV Hartberg have won 2, Austria Vienna 4, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2025, ended 2–1 with TSV Hartberg winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
TSV Hartberg in-play and half-time data (55 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Austria Vienna in-play and half-time data (55 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — TSV Hartberg 53% versus Austria Vienna 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 44% | Austria Vienna 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.08 xG and Austria Vienna 1.24 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 0.867 / defence 0.862 | Austria Vienna attack 1.251 / defence 0.926. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.147. Austria Vienna have an above-average attack strength of 1.251 — the away xG of 1.24 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 44 TSV Hartberg games / 44 Austria Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 31% | Draw 30% | Austria Vienna 39%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 3.23 | Draw 3.33 | Austria Vienna 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.32. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.32 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Austria Vienna at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Austria Vienna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.32 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 41% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. This conflicts with form data: TSV Hartberg 50% | Austria Vienna 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Championship Group - 24 | Venue: Stadion Hartberg • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Mar 2026, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 31% | Draw 30% | Austria Vienna 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 48% | xG TSV Hartberg 1.08 / Austria Vienna 1.24 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 0.867 / def 0.862 | Austria Vienna attack 1.251 / def 0.926 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Austria Vienna (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
1.24
Austria Vienna xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 22 March 2026 at Stadion Hartberg.
What was the final score in TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna?
TSV Hartberg 0 - 1 Austria Vienna.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Hartberg.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna part of?
TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna is a Championship Group - 24 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 31% chance of winning, Austria Vienna a 39% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Austria Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both TSV Hartberg and Austria Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Austria Vienna?
Record (7 meetings): TSV Hartberg 2W | Draws 1 | Austria Vienna 4W.
What form are TSV Hartberg and Austria Vienna in?
TSV Hartberg (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-D-D-D. Austria Vienna (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
TSV Hartberg's attacking strength (0.87x league average) is weighed against Austria Vienna's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.08. The same calculation in reverse, Austria Vienna's attack versus TSV Hartberg's defence, projects 1.24 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.6%), 0-1 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Vienna Win
31%
3.19
30%
3.36
39%
2.56
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.2%
Away win
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
2.32
1.24
Austria Vienna xG
3.19
31%
Home win
3.36
30%
Draw
2.56
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
29%
3.45
34%
2.94
Win to Nil
9%
11.01
13%
7.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 12.2 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 13.2 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 7.1 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.1 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and Austria Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 1.24 for Austria Vienna, a combined total of 2.32.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
TSV Hartberg come into this having played 55 games, going 19W 21D 15L for 1.42 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-D-D-D. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Austria Vienna sit at 1.75 PPG from 55 outings (29W 9D 17L), a run that reads W-L-D-W-L across their last five. The sample for Austria Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: TSV Hartberg on 1.42 PPG, Austria Vienna on 1.75. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
TSV Hartberg's home form reads 10W 9D 7L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Austria Vienna have taken 1.77 points per game from 26 outings (14W 4D 8L).
The Goals Picture
TSV Hartberg are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.16 conceded per game recently; Austria Vienna are on 1.51 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Last 55 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Blended
Austria Vienna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are TSV Hartberg and Austria Vienna in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 19W 21D 15L in their last 55 games (1.42 PPG), while Austria Vienna have gone 29W 9D 17L in their last 55 (1.75 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — TSV Hartberg at home or Austria Vienna away?
Austria Vienna's away record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — TSV Hartberg at home: 1.50 PPG; Austria Vienna away: 1.77 PPG.
Have TSV Hartberg or Austria Vienna been keeping clean sheets recently?
TSV Hartberg have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Austria Vienna in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between TSV Hartberg and Austria Vienna runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 16 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Austria Vienna go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
TSV Hartberg's record when hosting Austria Vienna specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
TSV Hartberg
1
Draws
7
Austria Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Austria Vienna?
From 10 meetings on record, TSV Hartberg have won 2, Austria Vienna have won 7, and 1 have been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and Austria Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 16 August 2026, when TSV Hartberg 0-2 Austria Vienna.
Who has won more matches between TSV Hartberg and Austria Vienna?
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — TSV Hartberg 62%, Austria Vienna 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (TSV Hartberg) and 50% (Austria Vienna).
On the defensive side: Austria Vienna in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / Austria Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when TSV Hartberg play Austria Vienna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of TSV Hartberg's games and 58% of Austria Vienna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is TSV Hartberg vs Austria Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of TSV Hartberg's recent games and 50% of Austria Vienna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do TSV Hartberg and Austria Vienna tend to score early?
TSV Hartberg have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Austria Vienna in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Austria Vienna edge out TSV Hartberg 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Vienna beat TSV Hartberg 0-1 at Stadion Hartberg, Championship Group - 24, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.08 xG and Austria Vienna 1.24 xG, a combined 2.32. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. TSV Hartberg fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 0.87 / defence 0.86 against Austria Vienna attack 1.25 / defence 0.93, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 31% | Draw 30% | Austria Vienna 39%, with Austria Vienna to win its most likely call at 39%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 44%, Austria Vienna 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (55 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Austria Vienna's trading profile (55 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — TSV Hartberg 1.42 PPG, Austria Vienna 1.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Austria Vienna win broke the near-deadlock. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.27 scoring average — below par going forward. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.