TSV Hartberg 2-3 Austria Klagenfurt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Austria Klagenfurt at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Austria Klagenfurt travel to PROfertil ARENA to take on TSV Hartberg. The game is scheduled for Sunday 2 October 2022, 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, TSV Hartberg stand at 2W 2D 6L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
TSV Hartberg's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at PROfertil ARENA this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Austria Klagenfurt — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Austria Klagenfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Austria Klagenfurt have posted 3W 4D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — TSV Hartberg at 0.80 PPG versus Austria Klagenfurt's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
TSV Hartberg in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Austria Klagenfurt in-play tendencies (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 91% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — TSV Hartberg 58% and Austria Klagenfurt 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 50% | Austria Klagenfurt 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.42 xG and Austria Klagenfurt 1.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 0.838 / defence 1.003 | Austria Klagenfurt attack 1.193 / defence 1.233. League average goals — home 1.378 / away 1.620. Austria Klagenfurt bring a strong defensive rating of 1.233 — this is suppressing TSV Hartberg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 30 TSV Hartberg games / 31 Austria Klagenfurt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 26% | Draw 28% | Austria Klagenfurt 47%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 3.85 | Draw 3.57 | Austria Klagenfurt 2.13. Austria Klagenfurt hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.36. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.36 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.42 / 1.94) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Austria Klagenfurt as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Austria Klagenfurt offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.36 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate: TSV Hartberg 30% | Austria Klagenfurt 90% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: PROfertil ARENA • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Oct 2022, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 26% | Draw 28% | Austria Klagenfurt 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 68% | xG TSV Hartberg 1.42 / Austria Klagenfurt 1.94 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 0.838 / def 1.003 | Austria Klagenfurt attack 1.193 / def 1.233 | league avg home 1.378 / away 1.620 • Poisson stance: Austria Klagenfurt (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
1.94
Austria Klagenfurt xG
68%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 2 October 2022 at PROfertil ARENA.
What was the final score in TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt?
TSV Hartberg 2 - 3 Austria Klagenfurt.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt being played?
The match is being played at PROfertil ARENA.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt part of?
TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 26% chance of winning, Austria Klagenfurt a 47% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Austria Klagenfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both TSV Hartberg and Austria Klagenfurt will score (BTTS).
Will TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Austria Klagenfurt?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are TSV Hartberg and Austria Klagenfurt in?
TSV Hartberg (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 2.00 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Austria Klagenfurt (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
TSV Hartberg's attacking strength (0.84x league average) is weighed against Austria Klagenfurt's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. The same calculation in reverse, Austria Klagenfurt's attack versus TSV Hartberg's defence, projects 1.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/31 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.8%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.3%), 2-1 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Klagenfurt Win
26%
3.92
28%
3.61
47%
2.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.3%
Away win
2 – 1
6.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
3.36
1.94
Austria Klagenfurt xG
3.92
26%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
2.14
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.11
Clean Sheet
14%
6.95
24%
4.15
Win to Nil
4%
27.25
11%
8.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.5 | 6.7 | 6.5 | 4.2 | 2.0 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 9.6 | 9.3 | 6.0 | 2.9 | 1.1 |
| 2 | 3.5 | 6.8 | 6.6 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.8 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.8%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and Austria Klagenfurt expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 1.94 for Austria Klagenfurt, a combined total of 3.36.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 40 outings, TSV Hartberg have picked up 1.00 PPG on a 9W 13D 18L record — L-W-D-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Austria Klagenfurt's form line: 11W 13D 16L from 40 games, 1.15 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-W. The sample for Austria Klagenfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: TSV Hartberg on 1.00 PPG, Austria Klagenfurt on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, TSV Hartberg have posted 1.05 PPG from 20 outings (5W 6D 9L).
On the road, Austria Klagenfurt have gone 6W 7D 7L from 20 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
TSV Hartberg are averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; Austria Klagenfurt are on 1.42 scored and 1.82 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Austria Klagenfurt in 68%.
Last 40 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Blended
Austria Klagenfurt
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are TSV Hartberg and Austria Klagenfurt in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 9W 13D 18L in their last 40 games (1.00 PPG), while Austria Klagenfurt have gone 11W 13D 16L in their last 40 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — TSV Hartberg at home or Austria Klagenfurt away?
Austria Klagenfurt's away record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — TSV Hartberg at home: 1.05 PPG; Austria Klagenfurt away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between TSV Hartberg and Austria Klagenfurt runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Aug 2023, when Austria Klagenfurt won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
TSV Hartberg's record when hosting Austria Klagenfurt specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
TSV Hartberg
4
Draws
4
Austria Klagenfurt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Austria Klagenfurt?
From 10 meetings on record, TSV Hartberg have won 2, Austria Klagenfurt have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and Austria Klagenfurt last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2025, when Austria Klagenfurt 0-1 TSV Hartberg.
Who has won more matches between TSV Hartberg and Austria Klagenfurt?
Austria Klagenfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Austria Klagenfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — TSV Hartberg at 55%, Austria Klagenfurt at 75%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (TSV Hartberg) and 65% (Austria Klagenfurt). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 45% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: TSV Hartberg have failed to score in 35% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / Austria Klagenfurt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when TSV Hartberg play Austria Klagenfurt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of TSV Hartberg's games and 75% of Austria Klagenfurt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 45% of TSV Hartberg's matches and 65% of Austria Klagenfurt's.
Do TSV Hartberg and Austria Klagenfurt tend to score early?
TSV Hartberg have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Austria Klagenfurt in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Austria Klagenfurt edge out TSV Hartberg 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Klagenfurt beat TSV Hartberg 2-3 at PROfertil ARENA, Regular Season - 10, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.42 xG and Austria Klagenfurt 1.94 xG, a combined 3.36. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Austria Klagenfurt outscored their 1.94 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 0.84 / defence 1.00 against Austria Klagenfurt attack 1.19 / defence 1.23, drawn from 30/31 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 26% | Draw 28% | Austria Klagenfurt 47%, with Austria Klagenfurt to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 50%, Austria Klagenfurt 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Austria Klagenfurt's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — TSV Hartberg 1.00 PPG, Austria Klagenfurt 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Austria Klagenfurt win broke the near-deadlock. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.20 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Austria Klagenfurt (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.