TSV Hartberg 0-2 Austria Klagenfurt – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Austria Klagenfurt at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 14 sees Austria Klagenfurt travel to PROfertil ARENA to take on TSV Hartberg. The game is scheduled for Saturday 6 November 2021, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, TSV Hartberg stand at 3W 5D 2L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
TSV Hartberg's form when playing at home: 1W 2D 3L across 6 games at PROfertil ARENA this term (0.83 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.83 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 83% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.83 lags behind their overall 1.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at PROfertil ARENA this season.
Austria Klagenfurt — All Games: 2W 5D 3L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W D D L D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Austria Klagenfurt, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Austria Klagenfurt have posted 1W 2D 4L from 7 away outings — 0.71 PPG. Away from home they average 1.29 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — TSV Hartberg at 1.40 PPG versus Austria Klagenfurt's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 71% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Profile
TSV Hartberg in-play tendencies (13 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Austria Klagenfurt in-play tendencies (13 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 31% of cases; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — TSV Hartberg 77% and Austria Klagenfurt 85% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (TSV Hartberg 46% | Austria Klagenfurt 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects TSV Hartberg 1.60 xG and Austria Klagenfurt 1.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: TSV Hartberg attack 1.015 / defence 1.345 | Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.862 / defence 1.261. League average goals — home 1.253 / away 1.437. Austria Klagenfurt bring a strong defensive rating of 1.261 — this is suppressing TSV Hartberg's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 13 TSV Hartberg games / 13 Austria Klagenfurt games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 35% | Draw 27% | Austria Klagenfurt 38%. Fair-value odds: TSV Hartberg 2.86 | Draw 3.70 | Austria Klagenfurt 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 67% | Total xG 3.27. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.27 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 67% reflects that both xG figures (1.60 / 1.67) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Austria Klagenfurt as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Austria Klagenfurt offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.27 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 67%. Form rates corroborate: TSV Hartberg 83% | Austria Klagenfurt 71% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: PROfertil ARENA • Kick-off: Saturday 6 Nov 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: TSV Hartberg 35% | Draw 27% | Austria Klagenfurt 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 63% | BTTS 67% | xG TSV Hartberg 1.60 / Austria Klagenfurt 1.67 • Poisson strength factors: TSV Hartberg attack 1.015 / def 1.345 | Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.862 / def 1.261 | league avg home 1.253 / away 1.437 • Poisson stance: Austria Klagenfurt (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
TSV Hartberg xG
Expected Goals
1.67
Austria Klagenfurt xG
67%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
63%
Over 2.5
41%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt kick off?
TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 6 November 2021 at PROfertil ARENA.
What was the final score in TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt?
TSV Hartberg 0 - 2 Austria Klagenfurt.
Where is TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt being played?
The match is being played at PROfertil ARENA.
What competition is TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt part of?
TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our statistical model gives TSV Hartberg a 35% chance of winning, Austria Klagenfurt a 38% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Austria Klagenfurt the favourite.
Will both teams score in TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our model estimates a 67% probability that both TSV Hartberg and Austria Klagenfurt will score (BTTS).
Will TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 63%.
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Austria Klagenfurt?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are TSV Hartberg and Austria Klagenfurt in?
TSV Hartberg (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-D-D-W. Austria Klagenfurt (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
TSV Hartberg's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against Austria Klagenfurt's defensive record (1.26x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.60. The same calculation in reverse, Austria Klagenfurt's attack versus TSV Hartberg's defence, projects 1.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.5%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Klagenfurt Win
35%
2.84
27%
3.69
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.5%
Away win
2 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
TSV Hartberg xG
Total xG
3.27
1.67
Austria Klagenfurt xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.69
27%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
63%
Over 2.5
1.59
37%
Under 2.5
2.70
41%
Over 3.5
2.44
59%
Under 3.5
1.69
23%
Over 4.5
4.35
77%
Under 4.5
1.30
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
67%
BTTS Yes
1.50
33%
BTTS No
3.01
Clean Sheet
19%
5.29
20%
4.98
Win to Nil
7%
15.05
8%
13.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.8 | 6.3 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 6.1 | 10.2 | 8.5 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 8.1 | 6.8 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are TSV Hartberg and Austria Klagenfurt expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for TSV Hartberg and 1.67 for Austria Klagenfurt, a combined total of 3.27.
How confident is the prediction model for TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 13 outings, TSV Hartberg have picked up 1.31 PPG on a 4W 5D 4L record — L-W-D-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for TSV Hartberg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Austria Klagenfurt's form line: 3W 6D 4L from 13 games, 1.15 PPG, last five W-D-D-L-D. The sample for Austria Klagenfurt is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: TSV Hartberg on 1.31 PPG, Austria Klagenfurt on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, TSV Hartberg have posted 0.83 PPG from 6 outings (1W 2D 3L). That actually lags their 1.31 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
On the road, Austria Klagenfurt have gone 1W 2D 3L from 6 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
TSV Hartberg are averaging 1.77 goals scored and 1.54 conceded per game recently; Austria Klagenfurt are on 1.62 scored and 1.77 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: TSV Hartberg have seen both teams score in 77% of their recent games; Austria Klagenfurt in 85%.
Last 13 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
TSV Hartberg
Blended
Austria Klagenfurt
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are TSV Hartberg and Austria Klagenfurt in coming into this match?
TSV Hartberg have gone 4W 5D 4L in their last 13 games (1.31 PPG), while Austria Klagenfurt have gone 3W 6D 4L in their last 13 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — TSV Hartberg at home or Austria Klagenfurt away?
TSV Hartberg's home record (0.83 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — TSV Hartberg at home: 0.83 PPG; Austria Klagenfurt away: 0.83 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between TSV Hartberg and Austria Klagenfurt runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 May 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 27 Aug 2023, when Austria Klagenfurt won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
TSV Hartberg's record when hosting Austria Klagenfurt specifically: 1W 1D 3L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
TSV Hartberg
4
Draws
4
Austria Klagenfurt
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between TSV Hartberg and Austria Klagenfurt?
From 10 meetings on record, TSV Hartberg have won 2, Austria Klagenfurt have won 4, and 4 have been drawn.
When did TSV Hartberg and Austria Klagenfurt last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2025, when Austria Klagenfurt 0-1 TSV Hartberg.
Who has won more matches between TSV Hartberg and Austria Klagenfurt?
Austria Klagenfurt have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Austria Klagenfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — TSV Hartberg at 83%, Austria Klagenfurt at 83%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (TSV Hartberg) and 67% (Austria Klagenfurt). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = TSV Hartberg home games / Austria Klagenfurt away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when TSV Hartberg play Austria Klagenfurt?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 83% of TSV Hartberg's games and 83% of Austria Klagenfurt's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is TSV Hartberg vs Austria Klagenfurt usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of TSV Hartberg's matches and 67% of Austria Klagenfurt's.
Do TSV Hartberg and Austria Klagenfurt tend to score early?
TSV Hartberg have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Austria Klagenfurt in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Austria Klagenfurt cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over TSV Hartberg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Klagenfurt beat TSV Hartberg 0-2 at PROfertil ARENA, Regular Season - 14, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting TSV Hartberg 1.60 xG and Austria Klagenfurt 1.67 xG, a combined 3.27. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. TSV Hartberg fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of TSV Hartberg attack 1.01 / defence 1.34 against Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.86 / defence 1.26, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it TSV Hartberg 35% | Draw 27% | Austria Klagenfurt 38%, with Austria Klagenfurt to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 67% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (TSV Hartberg 46%, Austria Klagenfurt 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 81%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 77% of their matches — today it did not.
Austria Klagenfurt's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 85% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — TSV Hartberg 1.31 PPG, Austria Klagenfurt 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Austria Klagenfurt win broke the near-deadlock. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward. Austria Klagenfurt (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.