Sturm Graz 5-0 WSG Wattens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sturm Graz at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sturm Graz vs WSG Wattens encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sturm Graz host WSG Wattens at Merkur Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 19 September 2021 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sturm Graz stand at 4W 2D 1L from 7 Bundesliga matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W D D W. They are averaging 2.29 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Sturm Graz have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sturm Graz's form when playing at home: 2W 1D 1L across 4 games at Merkur Arena this term (1.75 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
WSG Wattens — All Games: 0W 5D 2L from 7 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.71 PPG. Last five: D D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.43 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 7 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 86% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. WSG Wattens have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
WSG Wattens's form when playing away from home: 0W 2D 1L across 3 road games this term (0.67 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 1.67 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Sturm Graz are in the better shape of the two on current Bundesliga data — 1.29 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.71). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
Both teams score in over 100% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
In-Play Data
Sturm Graz trading profile (7 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures; they lead at the break 57% of the time; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games; Over 3.5 in 71%.
WSG Wattens trading profile (7 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 29% of the time; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sturm Graz 100% and WSG Wattens 86% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sturm Graz 86% | WSG Wattens 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sturm Graz 1.72 xG and WSG Wattens 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sturm Graz attack 1.209 / defence 1.298 | WSG Wattens attack 0.840 / defence 1.258. League average goals — home 1.131 / away 1.341. WSG Wattens bring a strong defensive rating of 1.258 — this is suppressing Sturm Graz's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 7 Sturm Graz games / 7 WSG Wattens games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sturm Graz 41% | Draw 30% | WSG Wattens 30%. Fair-value odds: Sturm Graz 2.44 | Draw 3.33 | WSG Wattens 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.18. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.18 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.72 / 1.46) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sturm Graz as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sturm Graz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.18 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 66% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sturm Graz 100% | WSG Wattens 100% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sturm Graz vs WSG Wattens | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Merkur Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Sep 2021, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sturm Graz 41% | Draw 30% | WSG Wattens 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 62% | BTTS 66% | xG Sturm Graz 1.72 / WSG Wattens 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Sturm Graz attack 1.209 / def 1.298 | WSG Wattens attack 0.840 / def 1.258 | league avg home 1.131 / away 1.341 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Sturm Graz xG
Expected Goals
1.46
WSG Wattens xG
66%
BTTS
86%
Over 1.5
62%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sturm Graz vs WSG Wattens kick off?
Sturm Graz vs WSG Wattens kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 19 September 2021 at Merkur Arena.
What was the final score in Sturm Graz vs WSG Wattens?
Sturm Graz 5 - 0 WSG Wattens.
Where is Sturm Graz vs WSG Wattens being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Arena.
What competition is Sturm Graz vs WSG Wattens part of?
Sturm Graz vs WSG Wattens is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Sturm Graz vs WSG Wattens?
Our statistical model gives Sturm Graz a 41% chance of winning, WSG Wattens a 30% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sturm Graz vs WSG Wattens?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Sturm Graz and WSG Wattens will score (BTTS).
Will Sturm Graz vs WSG Wattens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 62%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and WSG Wattens?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sturm Graz and WSG Wattens in?
Sturm Graz (all comps): 4W-2D-1L in 7 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.29 / GA 1.43 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. WSG Wattens (all comps): 0W-5D-2L in 7 | 0.71 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.43 | L5 D-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sturm Graz's attack rating (1.21) and WSG Wattens's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 1.72 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, WSG Wattens's attack versus Sturm Graz's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 7/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.0%), 1-2 (7.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
41%
2.46
30%
3.38
30%
3.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
1 – 2
7.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Sturm Graz xG
Total xG
3.18
1.46
WSG Wattens xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
3.36
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
83%
Over 1.5
1.20
17%
Under 1.5
5.88
62%
Over 2.5
1.61
38%
Under 2.5
2.63
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
22%
Over 4.5
4.55
78%
Under 4.5
1.28
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.96
Clean Sheet
23%
4.32
18%
5.58
Win to Nil
9%
10.61
5%
18.76
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 6.1 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 7.1 | 10.4 | 7.6 | 3.7 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 9.0 | 6.6 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 5.1 | 3.8 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 2.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sturm Graz vs WSG Wattens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Sturm Graz and WSG Wattens expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Sturm Graz and 1.46 for WSG Wattens, a combined total of 3.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Sturm Graz vs WSG Wattens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sturm Graz's recent record stands at 4W 2D 1L from 7 games, a 2.00 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Sturm Graz, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
WSG Wattens, meanwhile, have gone 0W 5D 2L across 7 games — 0.71 PPG, with D-D-D-L-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for WSG Wattens, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sturm Graz by 1.29 — a real, if not enormous, edge over WSG Wattens heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sturm Graz have managed 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — 2.33 PPG in front of their own supporters.
WSG Wattens's away record stands at 0W 2D 1L across 3 trips, a 0.67 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sturm Graz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sturm Graz are averaging 2.29 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; WSG Wattens are on 1.00 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sturm Graz have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; WSG Wattens in 86%.
Last 7 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sturm Graz
Early Season
WSG Wattens
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sturm Graz and WSG Wattens in coming into this match?
Sturm Graz have gone 4W 2D 1L in their last 7 games (2.00 PPG), while WSG Wattens have gone 0W 5D 2L in their last 7 (0.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sturm Graz at home or WSG Wattens away?
Sturm Graz's home record (2.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sturm Graz at home: 2.33 PPG; WSG Wattens away: 0.67 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sturm Graz and WSG Wattens runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Dec 2024, when Sturm Graz won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sturm Graz's record when hosting WSG Wattens specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Sturm Graz
2
Draws
2
WSG Wattens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and WSG Wattens?
From 10 meetings on record, Sturm Graz have won 6, WSG Wattens have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sturm Graz and WSG Wattens last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when WSG Wattens 1-1 Sturm Graz.
Who has won more matches between Sturm Graz and WSG Wattens?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Sturm Graz at 100%, WSG Wattens at 100%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Sturm Graz and 67% for WSG Wattens. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 67% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sturm Graz home games / WSG Wattens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sturm Graz play WSG Wattens?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Sturm Graz's games and 100% of WSG Wattens's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sturm Graz vs WSG Wattens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Sturm Graz's matches and 67% of WSG Wattens's.
Do Sturm Graz and WSG Wattens tend to score early?
Sturm Graz have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, WSG Wattens in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sturm Graz run riot with a 5-0 hammering of WSG Wattens.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sturm Graz beat WSG Wattens 5-0 at Merkur Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sturm Graz 1.72 xG and WSG Wattens 1.46 xG, a combined 3.18. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Sturm Graz beat their projection by 3.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. WSG Wattens landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sturm Graz attack 1.21 / defence 1.30 against WSG Wattens attack 0.84 / defence 1.26, drawn from 7/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sturm Graz 41% | Draw 30% | WSG Wattens 30%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 41%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 86% and landed. Over 3.5 was 39% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sturm Graz 86%, WSG Wattens 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 93%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sturm Graz's trading profile (7 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 100% of their matches — today it did not.
WSG Wattens's trading profile (7 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 86% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.71. Form held, and they took the win. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 2.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.