Sturm Graz vs WSG Wattens – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates WSG Wattens at 35%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sturm Graz vs WSG Wattens fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sturm Graz host WSG Wattens at Merkur-Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 29 November 2026 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sturm Graz stand at 4W 5D 1L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Sturm Graz have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sturm Graz's form when playing at home: 5W 5D 0L across 10 games at Merkur-Arena this term (2.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Merkur-Arena.
WSG Wattens — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. WSG Wattens have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
WSG Wattens's form when playing away from home: 3W 1D 6L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Sturm Graz are in the better shape of the two on current Bundesliga data — 0.50 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: Sturm Graz have dominated this rivalry, winning 6 of 10 past contests while WSG Wattens have managed just 2 wins.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 10 meetings have averaged 2.8 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 1 Aug 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Sturm Graz and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 10 meetings, combined with an average of 2.8 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Sturm Graz trading profile (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (home games).
WSG Wattens trading profile (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sturm Graz 57% versus WSG Wattens 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sturm Graz 38% | WSG Wattens 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sturm Graz 1.31 xG and WSG Wattens 1.34 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sturm Graz attack 0.853 / defence 0.888 | WSG Wattens attack 1.279 / defence 0.975. League average goals — home 1.576 / away 1.177. WSG Wattens have an above-average attack strength of 1.279 — the away xG of 1.34 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 27 Sturm Graz games / 26 WSG Wattens games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sturm Graz 34% | Draw 32% | WSG Wattens 35%. Fair-value odds: Sturm Graz 2.94 | Draw 3.12 | WSG Wattens 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.65. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.65 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates WSG Wattens as the most likely outcome at 35% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sturm Graz (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on WSG Wattens offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.65 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Sturm Graz 40% | WSG Wattens 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sturm Graz vs WSG Wattens | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Merkur-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Nov 2026, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sturm Graz 34% | Draw 32% | WSG Wattens 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 57% | xG Sturm Graz 1.31 / WSG Wattens 1.34 • Poisson strength factors: Sturm Graz attack 0.853 / def 0.888 | WSG Wattens attack 1.279 / def 0.975 | league avg home 1.576 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: WSG Wattens (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.31
Sturm Graz xG
Expected Goals
1.34
WSG Wattens xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sturm Graz vs WSG Wattens kick off?
Sturm Graz vs WSG Wattens is scheduled to kick off at 13:30 on Sunday 29 November 2026 at Merkur-Arena.
Where is Sturm Graz vs WSG Wattens being played?
The match is being played at Merkur-Arena.
What competition is Sturm Graz vs WSG Wattens part of?
Sturm Graz vs WSG Wattens is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Sturm Graz vs WSG Wattens?
Our statistical model gives Sturm Graz a 34% chance of winning, WSG Wattens a 35% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making WSG Wattens the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sturm Graz vs WSG Wattens?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Sturm Graz and WSG Wattens will score (BTTS).
Will Sturm Graz vs WSG Wattens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and WSG Wattens?
Record (10 meetings): Sturm Graz 6W | Draws 2 | WSG Wattens 2W.
What form are Sturm Graz and WSG Wattens in?
Sturm Graz (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-D-L. WSG Wattens (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sturm Graz's attack rating (0.85) and WSG Wattens's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.31 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, WSG Wattens's attack versus Sturm Graz's defence, projects 1.34 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
WSG Wattens Win
34%
2.98
32%
3.17
35%
2.87
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.5%
Away win
1 – 0
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.31
Sturm Graz xG
Total xG
2.65
1.34
WSG Wattens xG
2.98
34%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
2.87
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
26%
3.81
27%
3.71
Win to Nil
9%
11.34
9%
10.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.1 | 9.5 | 6.3 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.3 | 12.4 | 8.3 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 8.1 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.7 | 3.5 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sturm Graz vs WSG Wattens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Sturm Graz and WSG Wattens expected to score?
The model projects 1.31 expected goals for Sturm Graz and 1.34 for WSG Wattens, a combined total of 2.65.
How confident is the prediction model for Sturm Graz vs WSG Wattens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sturm Graz's recent record stands at 18W 10D 9L from 37 games, a 1.73 PPG return, with D-W-W-D-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Sturm Graz, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
WSG Wattens, meanwhile, have gone 12W 11D 14L across 37 games — 1.27 PPG, with D-L-L-W-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for WSG Wattens, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sturm Graz by 0.46 — a real, if not enormous, edge over WSG Wattens heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sturm Graz have managed 7W 6D 5L from 18 games — 1.50 PPG in front of their own supporters.
WSG Wattens's away record stands at 5W 4D 9L across 18 trips, a 1.06 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sturm Graz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sturm Graz are averaging 1.54 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; WSG Wattens are on 1.27 scored and 1.59 conceded.
Defensively: Sturm Graz have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sturm Graz
Early Season
WSG Wattens
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sturm Graz and WSG Wattens in coming into this match?
Sturm Graz have gone 18W 10D 9L in their last 37 games (1.73 PPG), while WSG Wattens have gone 12W 11D 14L in their last 37 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sturm Graz at home or WSG Wattens away?
Sturm Graz's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sturm Graz at home: 1.50 PPG; WSG Wattens away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Sturm Graz or WSG Wattens been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sturm Graz have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, WSG Wattens in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sturm Graz and WSG Wattens runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Dec 2024, when Sturm Graz won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sturm Graz's record when hosting WSG Wattens specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Sturm Graz
2
Draws
2
WSG Wattens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and WSG Wattens?
From 10 meetings on record, Sturm Graz have won 6, WSG Wattens have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sturm Graz and WSG Wattens last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when WSG Wattens 1-1 Sturm Graz.
Who has won more matches between Sturm Graz and WSG Wattens?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sturm Graz see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sturm Graz 56%, WSG Wattens 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 28% (Sturm Graz) and 56% (WSG Wattens).
On the defensive side: Sturm Graz keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; WSG Wattens in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sturm Graz home games / WSG Wattens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sturm Graz play WSG Wattens?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Sturm Graz's recent matches and 44% of WSG Wattens's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sturm Graz vs WSG Wattens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 28% of Sturm Graz's recent games and 56% of WSG Wattens's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sturm Graz and WSG Wattens tend to score early?
Sturm Graz have had a goal before half-time in 44% of their recent matches, WSG Wattens in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.