Sturm Graz 1-0 WSG Wattens – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sturm Graz (54%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Sturm Graz face WSG Wattens.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Sturm Graz host WSG Wattens at Merkur Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 1 October 2023 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sturm Graz stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Sturm Graz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sturm Graz's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Merkur Arena this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
WSG Wattens — All Games: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D D L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for WSG Wattens, so this record blends games from this season and last.
WSG Wattens's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Sturm Graz are in the better shape of the two on current Bundesliga data — 1.50 PPG ahead (2.10 vs 0.60). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Sturm Graz, 0 for WSG Wattens and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Mar 2023, ended 2–0 with Sturm Graz winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Sturm Graz trading profile (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (home games).
WSG Wattens trading profile (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%; they fail to score in 32% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sturm Graz 58% and WSG Wattens 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sturm Graz 52% | WSG Wattens 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sturm Graz 1.86 xG and WSG Wattens 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sturm Graz attack 1.289 / defence 0.765 | WSG Wattens attack 0.896 / defence 1.163. League average goals — home 1.244 / away 1.528. Sturm Graz carry an above-average attack strength of 1.289 — their λ of 1.86 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Sturm Graz's defence rating of 0.765 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 30 Sturm Graz games / 30 WSG Wattens games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sturm Graz 54% | Draw 28% | WSG Wattens 18%. Fair-value odds: Sturm Graz 1.85 | Draw 3.57 | WSG Wattens 5.56. Sturm Graz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 56% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.91. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 56% — the 2.91 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sturm Graz as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sturm Graz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.91 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Sturm Graz 60% | WSG Wattens 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sturm Graz vs WSG Wattens | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Merkur Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Oct 2023, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sturm Graz 54% | Draw 28% | WSG Wattens 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 56% | BTTS 57% | xG Sturm Graz 1.86 / WSG Wattens 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Sturm Graz attack 1.289 / def 0.765 | WSG Wattens attack 0.896 / def 1.163 | league avg home 1.244 / away 1.528 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.86
Sturm Graz xG
Expected Goals
1.05
WSG Wattens xG
57%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
56%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sturm Graz vs WSG Wattens kick off?
Sturm Graz vs WSG Wattens kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 1 October 2023 at Merkur Arena.
What was the final score in Sturm Graz vs WSG Wattens?
Sturm Graz 1 - 0 WSG Wattens.
Where is Sturm Graz vs WSG Wattens being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Arena.
What competition is Sturm Graz vs WSG Wattens part of?
Sturm Graz vs WSG Wattens is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Sturm Graz vs WSG Wattens?
Our statistical model gives Sturm Graz a 54% chance of winning, WSG Wattens a 18% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sturm Graz vs WSG Wattens?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Sturm Graz and WSG Wattens will score (BTTS).
Will Sturm Graz vs WSG Wattens have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 56%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and WSG Wattens?
Record (3 meetings): Sturm Graz 2W | Draws 1 | WSG Wattens 0W.
What form are Sturm Graz and WSG Wattens in?
Sturm Graz (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-D-D. WSG Wattens (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-D-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sturm Graz's attack rating (1.29) and WSG Wattens's defence rating (1.16), the model arrives at 1.86 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, WSG Wattens's attack versus Sturm Graz's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 30/30 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
54%
1.85
28%
3.62
18%
5.42
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.86
Sturm Graz xG
Total xG
2.91
1.05
WSG Wattens xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.62
28%
Draw
5.42
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
56%
Over 2.5
1.79
44%
Under 2.5
2.27
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.74
43%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
15%
6.46
Win to Nil
19%
5.29
3%
34.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.4 | 5.7 | 3.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 10.6 | 5.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.4 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 6.2 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sturm Graz vs WSG Wattens?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Sturm Graz and WSG Wattens expected to score?
The model projects 1.86 expected goals for Sturm Graz and 1.05 for WSG Wattens, a combined total of 2.91.
How confident is the prediction model for Sturm Graz vs WSG Wattens?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sturm Graz's recent record stands at 25W 9D 6L from 40 games, a 2.10 PPG return, with W-W-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for Sturm Graz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
WSG Wattens, meanwhile, have gone 11W 10D 19L across 40 games — 1.08 PPG, with D-D-L-W-L in their last five. The sample for WSG Wattens is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sturm Graz by 1.02 — a real, if not enormous, edge over WSG Wattens heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sturm Graz have managed 14W 3D 3L from 20 games — 2.25 PPG in front of their own supporters.
WSG Wattens's away record stands at 7W 3D 10L across 20 trips, a 1.20 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sturm Graz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sturm Graz are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.85 conceded per game recently; WSG Wattens are on 1.35 scored and 1.78 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: WSG Wattens in 62%.
Defensively: Sturm Graz have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sturm Graz
Blended
WSG Wattens
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sturm Graz and WSG Wattens in coming into this match?
Sturm Graz have gone 25W 9D 6L in their last 40 games (2.10 PPG), while WSG Wattens have gone 11W 10D 19L in their last 40 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sturm Graz at home or WSG Wattens away?
Sturm Graz's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sturm Graz at home: 2.25 PPG; WSG Wattens away: 1.20 PPG.
Have Sturm Graz or WSG Wattens been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sturm Graz have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, WSG Wattens in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sturm Graz and WSG Wattens runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to February 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 1 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Dec 2024, when Sturm Graz won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sturm Graz's record when hosting WSG Wattens specifically: 3W 0D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Sturm Graz
2
Draws
2
WSG Wattens
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and WSG Wattens?
From 10 meetings on record, Sturm Graz have won 6, WSG Wattens have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sturm Graz and WSG Wattens last play each other?
They last met on 1 August 2026, when WSG Wattens 1-1 Sturm Graz.
Who has won more matches between Sturm Graz and WSG Wattens?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
WSG Wattens are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sturm Graz 55%, WSG Wattens 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 60% for Sturm Graz and 60% for WSG Wattens. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sturm Graz keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; WSG Wattens in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sturm Graz home games / WSG Wattens away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sturm Graz play WSG Wattens?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Sturm Graz's games and 60% of WSG Wattens's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sturm Graz vs WSG Wattens usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 60% of Sturm Graz's matches and 60% of WSG Wattens's.
Do Sturm Graz and WSG Wattens tend to score early?
Sturm Graz have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, WSG Wattens in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sturm Graz edge out WSG Wattens 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sturm Graz beat WSG Wattens 1-0 at Merkur Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sturm Graz 1.86 xG and WSG Wattens 1.05 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sturm Graz fell 0.9 short of their projected output. WSG Wattens landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sturm Graz attack 1.29 / defence 0.77 against WSG Wattens attack 0.90 / defence 1.16, drawn from 30/30 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sturm Graz 54% | Draw 28% | WSG Wattens 18%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 54%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sturm Graz 52%, WSG Wattens 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sturm Graz's trading profile (40 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
WSG Wattens's trading profile (40 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line. WSG Wattens (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.40 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.