Sturm Graz 1-0 TSV Hartberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates TSV Hartberg at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees TSV Hartberg travel to Merkur-Arena to take on Sturm Graz. The game is scheduled for Sunday 28 September 2025, 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sturm Graz stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Sturm Graz have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sturm Graz have posted 5W 2D 3L at Merkur-Arena — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, TSV Hartberg have recorded 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W L W D. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. TSV Hartberg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
TSV Hartberg's form when playing away from home: 6W 2D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.90 PPG (Sturm Graz) versus 1.60 (TSV Hartberg). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H Record
The fixture history tells a clear story: Sturm Graz have dominated this rivalry, winning 3 of 5 past contests while TSV Hartberg have managed just 0 wins.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Nov 2024, ended 2–1 with Sturm Graz winning.
The historical record gives Sturm Graz a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 5 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Sturm Graz in-play tendencies (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
TSV Hartberg in-play tendencies (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sturm Graz 58% versus TSV Hartberg 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sturm Graz 63% | TSV Hartberg 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sturm Graz 1.18 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sturm Graz attack 0.912 / defence 1.057 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.222 / defence 0.947. League average goals — home 1.368 / away 1.194. TSV Hartberg have an above-average attack strength of 1.222 — the away xG of 1.54 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 28 Sturm Graz games / 29 TSV Hartberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sturm Graz 29% | Draw 25% | TSV Hartberg 46%. Fair-value odds: Sturm Graz 3.45 | Draw 4.00 | TSV Hartberg 2.17. TSV Hartberg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.72. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.72 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is TSV Hartberg at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.72 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Sturm Graz 60% | TSV Hartberg 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Merkur-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Sep 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sturm Graz 29% | Draw 25% | TSV Hartberg 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 54% | xG Sturm Graz 1.18 / TSV Hartberg 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Sturm Graz attack 0.912 / def 1.057 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.222 / def 0.947 | league avg home 1.368 / away 1.194 • Poisson stance: TSV Hartberg (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Sturm Graz xG
Expected Goals
1.54
TSV Hartberg xG
54%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 28 September 2025 at Merkur-Arena.
What was the final score in Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg?
Sturm Graz 1 - 0 TSV Hartberg.
Where is Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at Merkur-Arena.
What competition is Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg part of?
Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives Sturm Graz a 29% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 46% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making TSV Hartberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Sturm Graz and TSV Hartberg will score (BTTS).
Will Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and TSV Hartberg?
Record (5 meetings): Sturm Graz 3W | Draws 2 | TSV Hartberg 0W.
What form are Sturm Graz and TSV Hartberg in?
Sturm Graz (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-W-L-W. TSV Hartberg (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sturm Graz's attack at 0.91x the league average against TSV Hartberg's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.18 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, TSV Hartberg's attack versus Sturm Graz's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.2%), 0-1 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
TSV Hartberg Win
29%
3.43
25%
3.97
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Sturm Graz xG
Total xG
2.72
1.54
TSV Hartberg xG
3.43
29%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
21%
4.67
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
6%
16.02
14%
7.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.6 | 10.1 | 7.8 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 12.0 | 9.2 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 7.1 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.8 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.5%.
How many goals are Sturm Graz and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Sturm Graz and 1.54 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 2.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sturm Graz's recent record stands at 23W 6D 9L from 38 games, a 1.97 PPG return, with L-W-W-L-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Sturm Graz, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
TSV Hartberg, meanwhile, have gone 14W 12D 12L across 38 games — 1.42 PPG, with L-W-L-W-D in their last five. It's still early in the season for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sturm Graz by 0.55 — a real, if not enormous, edge over TSV Hartberg heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Sturm Graz have managed 11W 3D 4L from 18 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
TSV Hartberg's away record stands at 7W 5D 6L across 18 trips, a 1.44 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sturm Graz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Sturm Graz are averaging 2.03 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.32 scored and 1.26 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sturm Graz
Early Season
TSV Hartberg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sturm Graz and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
Sturm Graz have gone 23W 6D 9L in their last 38 games (1.97 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 14W 12D 12L in their last 38 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sturm Graz at home or TSV Hartberg away?
Sturm Graz's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sturm Graz at home: 2.00 PPG; TSV Hartberg away: 1.44 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 8 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Sturm Graz have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Sturm Graz's record when hosting TSV Hartberg specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Sturm Graz
3
Draws
0
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and TSV Hartberg?
From 10 meetings on record, Sturm Graz have won 7, TSV Hartberg have won 0, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Sturm Graz and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
They last met on 8 August 2026, when TSV Hartberg 0-2 Sturm Graz.
Who has won more matches between Sturm Graz and TSV Hartberg?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 56% of the time.
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sturm Graz 56%, TSV Hartberg 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Sturm Graz) and 44% (TSV Hartberg).
On the defensive side: TSV Hartberg in 44%; TSV Hartberg in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sturm Graz home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sturm Graz play TSV Hartberg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Sturm Graz's recent matches and 39% of TSV Hartberg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sturm Graz vs TSV Hartberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 61% of Sturm Graz's recent games and 44% of TSV Hartberg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sturm Graz and TSV Hartberg tend to score early?
Sturm Graz have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, TSV Hartberg in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Sturm Graz defy the odds to beat TSV Hartberg 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sturm Graz beat TSV Hartberg 1-0 at Merkur-Arena, Regular Season - 8, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sturm Graz 1.18 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.54 xG, a combined 2.72. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. TSV Hartberg landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sturm Graz attack 0.91 / defence 1.06 against TSV Hartberg attack 1.22 / defence 0.95, drawn from 28/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sturm Graz 29% | Draw 25% | TSV Hartberg 46%, with TSV Hartberg to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Sturm Graz win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sturm Graz 63%, TSV Hartberg 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sturm Graz's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 1.42. Form held, and they took the win. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.44 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.