Sturm Graz 4-0 SCR Altach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sturm Graz at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 4 sees SCR Altach travel to Merkur Arena to take on Sturm Graz. The game is scheduled for Saturday 13 August 2022, 18:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Sturm Graz — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: L L D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Sturm Graz have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Sturm Graz's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Merkur Arena this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, SCR Altach have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W W L D W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.40. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. SCR Altach have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
SCR Altach away from home this season: 3W 0D 7L from 10 away games — 0.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Sturm Graz at 1.80 PPG versus SCR Altach's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Sturm Graz, 0 for SCR Altach and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Dec 2021, ended 1–0 with Sturm Graz winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Sturm Graz trading profile (35 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 82% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 43%.
SCR Altach trading profile (35 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (away games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sturm Graz 71% versus SCR Altach 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sturm Graz 71% | SCR Altach 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sturm Graz 1.95 xG and SCR Altach 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sturm Graz attack 1.144 / defence 0.969 | SCR Altach attack 0.901 / defence 1.133. League average goals — home 1.505 / away 1.198. Data: 25 Sturm Graz games / 25 SCR Altach games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sturm Graz 58% | Draw 23% | SCR Altach 19%. Fair-value odds: Sturm Graz 1.72 | Draw 4.35 | SCR Altach 5.26. The model has a clear lean to Sturm Graz (58%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 58% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 3.00. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 58% — the 3.00 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sturm Graz as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.00 combined xG gives a 58% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sturm Graz 80% | SCR Altach 40% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (25 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Merkur Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 13 Aug 2022, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sturm Graz 58% | Draw 23% | SCR Altach 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 58% | BTTS 56% | xG Sturm Graz 1.95 / SCR Altach 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Sturm Graz attack 1.144 / def 0.969 | SCR Altach attack 0.901 / def 1.133 | league avg home 1.505 / away 1.198 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
Sturm Graz xG
Expected Goals
1.05
SCR Altach xG
56%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
58%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach kick off?
Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach kicked off at 18:30 on Saturday 13 August 2022 at Merkur Arena.
What was the final score in Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach?
Sturm Graz 4 - 0 SCR Altach.
Where is Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Arena.
What competition is Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach part of?
Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach?
Our statistical model gives Sturm Graz a 58% chance of winning, SCR Altach a 19% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Sturm Graz and SCR Altach will score (BTTS).
Will Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 58%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and SCR Altach?
Record (2 meetings): Sturm Graz 2W | Draws 0 | SCR Altach 0W.
What form are Sturm Graz and SCR Altach in?
Sturm Graz (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-W-D. SCR Altach (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Sturm Graz's attack rating (1.14) and SCR Altach's defence rating (1.13), the model arrives at 1.95 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, SCR Altach's attack versus Sturm Graz's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (25/25 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
58%
1.72
23%
4.44
19%
5.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
Sturm Graz xG
Total xG
3.00
1.05
SCR Altach xG
1.72
58%
Home win
4.44
23%
Draw
5.14
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
58%
Over 2.5
1.72
42%
Under 2.5
2.38
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
14%
7.04
Win to Nil
20%
4.91
3%
36.19
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 9.7 | 10.2 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.9 | 5.2 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.2 | 6.5 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.0 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are Sturm Graz and SCR Altach expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for Sturm Graz and 1.05 for SCR Altach, a combined total of 3.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Sturm Graz's recent record stands at 17W 10D 8L from 35 games, a 1.74 PPG return, with L-L-D-W-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Sturm Graz, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
SCR Altach, meanwhile, have gone 8W 9D 18L across 35 games — 0.94 PPG, with W-W-L-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for SCR Altach, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sturm Graz by 0.80 — a real, if not enormous, edge over SCR Altach heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Sturm Graz have managed 10W 4D 3L from 17 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
SCR Altach's away record stands at 5W 2D 10L across 17 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sturm Graz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Sturm Graz are averaging 1.89 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; SCR Altach are on 0.86 scored and 1.57 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sturm Graz have seen both teams score in 71% of their recent games.
Last 35 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sturm Graz
Early Season
SCR Altach
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sturm Graz and SCR Altach in coming into this match?
Sturm Graz have gone 17W 10D 8L in their last 35 games (1.74 PPG), while SCR Altach have gone 8W 9D 18L in their last 35 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sturm Graz at home or SCR Altach away?
Sturm Graz's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sturm Graz at home: 2.00 PPG; SCR Altach away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Sturm Graz and SCR Altach runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 8 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sturm Graz have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 13 Aug 2022, when Sturm Graz won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sturm Graz's record when hosting SCR Altach specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Sturm Graz
2
Draws
0
SCR Altach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and SCR Altach?
From 10 meetings on record, Sturm Graz have won 8, SCR Altach have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sturm Graz and SCR Altach last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2026, when Sturm Graz 2-0 SCR Altach.
Who has won more matches between Sturm Graz and SCR Altach?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sturm Graz 71%, SCR Altach 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 82% for Sturm Graz and 65% for SCR Altach. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 47% and 18% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: SCR Altach in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sturm Graz home games / SCR Altach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sturm Graz play SCR Altach?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 71% of Sturm Graz's recent matches and 35% of SCR Altach's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sturm Graz vs SCR Altach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 82% of Sturm Graz's matches and 65% of SCR Altach's.
Do Sturm Graz and SCR Altach tend to score early?
Sturm Graz have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, SCR Altach in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Sturm Graz run riot with a 4-0 hammering of SCR Altach.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sturm Graz beat SCR Altach 4-0 at Merkur Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sturm Graz 1.95 xG and SCR Altach 1.05 xG, a combined 3.00. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Sturm Graz beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SCR Altach landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sturm Graz attack 1.14 / defence 0.97 against SCR Altach attack 0.90 / defence 1.13, drawn from 25/25 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Sturm Graz 58% | Draw 23% | SCR Altach 19%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 58%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 35% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 63% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sturm Graz 71%, SCR Altach 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sturm Graz's trading profile (35 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did not.
SCR Altach's trading profile (35 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 49% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 1.74 PPG against 0.94. That form edge translated into the three points. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 2.00 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.41 average — tighter than their form line. SCR Altach (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.