Sturm Graz 0-2 Red Bull Salzburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Red Bull Salzburg at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Merkur Arena plays host to Sturm Graz versus Red Bull Salzburg in Bundesliga, Championship Round - 4. Kick-off: Sunday 23 April 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sturm Graz have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.80 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Sturm Graz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sturm Graz have posted 7W 1D 2L at Merkur Arena — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Red Bull Salzburg (all games): 7W 3D 0L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 2.40 points per game. Last five: W D W D D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.30 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Red Bull Salzburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Red Bull Salzburg's form when playing away from home: 10W 0D 0L across 10 road games this term (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 3.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 3.00 exceeds their overall 2.40 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.20 for Sturm Graz, 2.40 for Red Bull Salzburg — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Sturm Graz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games).
Red Bull Salzburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 35%; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sturm Graz 63% versus Red Bull Salzburg 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sturm Graz 63% | Red Bull Salzburg 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sturm Graz 1.28 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 1.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sturm Graz attack 1.106 / defence 0.885 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.441 / defence 0.841. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.336. Red Bull Salzburg have an above-average attack strength of 1.441 — the away xG of 1.71 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 44 Sturm Graz games / 44 Red Bull Salzburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sturm Graz 29% | Draw 24% | Red Bull Salzburg 47%. Fair-value odds: Sturm Graz 3.45 | Draw 4.17 | Red Bull Salzburg 2.13. Red Bull Salzburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Red Bull Salzburg as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Red Bull Salzburg if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.99 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 57% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sturm Graz 60% | Red Bull Salzburg 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Championship Round - 4 | Venue: Merkur Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Apr 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sturm Graz 29% | Draw 24% | Red Bull Salzburg 47% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 59% | xG Sturm Graz 1.28 / Red Bull Salzburg 1.71 • Poisson strength factors: Sturm Graz attack 1.106 / def 0.885 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.441 / def 0.841 | league avg home 1.380 / away 1.336 • Poisson stance: Red Bull Salzburg (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Sturm Graz xG
Expected Goals
1.71
Red Bull Salzburg xG
59%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg kick off?
Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 23 April 2023 at Merkur Arena.
What was the final score in Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Sturm Graz 0 - 2 Red Bull Salzburg.
Where is Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Arena.
What competition is Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg part of?
Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg is a Championship Round - 4 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our statistical model gives Sturm Graz a 29% chance of winning, Red Bull Salzburg a 47% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Red Bull Salzburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Sturm Graz and Red Bull Salzburg will score (BTTS).
Will Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and Red Bull Salzburg?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sturm Graz and Red Bull Salzburg in?
Sturm Graz (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Red Bull Salzburg (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Sturm Graz's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against Red Bull Salzburg's defensive record (0.84x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.28. Flip it around — Red Bull Salzburg's attack (1.44x) against Sturm Graz's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 1.71.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.5%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-2 (7.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Red Bull Salzburg Win
29%
3.46
24%
4.21
47%
2.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Sturm Graz xG
Total xG
2.99
1.71
Red Bull Salzburg xG
3.46
29%
Home win
4.21
24%
Draw
2.11
47%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
18%
5.50
28%
3.61
Win to Nil
5%
19.04
13%
7.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 8.6 | 7.3 | 4.2 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 6.5 | 11.0 | 9.4 | 5.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 7.1 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 3.0 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Sturm Graz and Red Bull Salzburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Sturm Graz and 1.71 for Red Bull Salzburg, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sturm Graz's recent record stands at 32W 14D 11L from 57 games, a 1.93 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-W in the last five. The sample for Sturm Graz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Red Bull Salzburg, meanwhile, have gone 43W 11D 3L across 57 games — 2.46 PPG, with W-D-W-D-D in their last five. The sample for Red Bull Salzburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Red Bull Salzburg by 0.53 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Sturm Graz heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Sturm Graz have managed 18W 5D 5L from 28 games — 2.11 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Red Bull Salzburg's away record stands at 22W 3D 3L across 28 trips, a 2.46 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Sturm Graz are averaging 1.84 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Red Bull Salzburg are on 2.32 scored and 0.61 conceded. Sturm Graz's scoring rate against Red Bull Salzburg's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Sturm Graz have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Defensively: Red Bull Salzburg in 53% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sturm Graz
Blended
Red Bull Salzburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sturm Graz and Red Bull Salzburg in coming into this match?
Sturm Graz have gone 32W 14D 11L in their last 57 games (1.93 PPG), while Red Bull Salzburg have gone 43W 11D 3L in their last 57 (2.46 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sturm Graz at home or Red Bull Salzburg away?
Red Bull Salzburg's away record (2.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sturm Graz at home: 2.11 PPG; Red Bull Salzburg away: 2.46 PPG.
Have Sturm Graz or Red Bull Salzburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sturm Graz have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Red Bull Salzburg in 53%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to March 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sturm Graz won 5-0 on 6 Oct 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sturm Graz have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Red Bull Salzburg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Sturm Graz
4
Draws
2
Red Bull Salzburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and Red Bull Salzburg?
From 10 meetings on record, Sturm Graz have won 4, Red Bull Salzburg have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sturm Graz and Red Bull Salzburg last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Red Bull Salzburg 1-1 Sturm Graz.
Who has won more matches between Sturm Graz and Red Bull Salzburg?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Red Bull Salzburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sturm Graz 64%, Red Bull Salzburg 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Sturm Graz and 64% for Red Bull Salzburg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 43% and 36% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Red Bull Salzburg in 46%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sturm Graz home games / Red Bull Salzburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sturm Graz play Red Bull Salzburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Sturm Graz's games and 54% of Red Bull Salzburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sturm Graz vs Red Bull Salzburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Sturm Graz's matches and 64% of Red Bull Salzburg's.
Do Sturm Graz and Red Bull Salzburg tend to score early?
Sturm Graz have had a goal before half-time in 82% of their recent matches, Red Bull Salzburg in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Red Bull Salzburg cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Sturm Graz.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Red Bull Salzburg beat Sturm Graz 0-2 at Merkur Arena, Championship Round - 4, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sturm Graz 1.28 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 1.71 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Sturm Graz fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sturm Graz attack 1.11 / defence 0.89 against Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.44 / defence 0.84, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sturm Graz 29% | Draw 24% | Red Bull Salzburg 47%, with Red Bull Salzburg to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sturm Graz 63%, Red Bull Salzburg 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sturm Graz's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Red Bull Salzburg arrived the stronger side — 2.46 PPG against 1.93. That form edge translated into the three points. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.96 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.