Sturm Graz 1-1 Rapid Vienna – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates Sturm Graz at 61% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sturm Graz vs Rapid Vienna encounter.

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Full Analysis

Merkur Arena plays host to Sturm Graz versus Rapid Vienna in Bundesliga (matchday 12). Kick-off: Saturday 2 November 2024 at 16:00 UK time.

Form & Momentum

Sturm Graz have collected 2.50 PPG across their last 10 games: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

Sturm Graz's form when playing at home: 8W 1D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.50 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.

Rapid Vienna's record over their last 10 games: 5W 4D 1L (1.90 PPG). Last five: W D W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

Rapid Vienna's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

The form ledger tips toward Sturm Graz. A 0.60 PPG lead over Rapid Vienna (2.50 vs 1.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.

H2H History

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 2 H2H matches in our data, the wins are level at 1 apiece, with 0 draws. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 4 Aug 2024, ended Sturm Graz 0–1 Rapid Vienna — a Rapid Vienna win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Trading Data

Sturm Graz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 43 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games).

Rapid Vienna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 43 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 44%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sturm Graz 51% versus Rapid Vienna 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sturm Graz 51% | Rapid Vienna 37%). Note also that Rapid Vienna surrender HT leads in 44% of cases while Sturm Graz recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 60% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sturm Graz 2.13 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sturm Graz attack 1.499 / defence 1.074 | Rapid Vienna attack 0.852 / defence 0.891. League average goals — home 1.592 / away 1.178. Sturm Graz carry an above-average attack rating of 1.499 — their 2.13 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Data: built from Sturm Graz's last 33 games and Rapid Vienna's last 33.

Result probabilities: Sturm Graz 61% | Draw 20% | Rapid Vienna 18%. Fair-value odds: Sturm Graz 1.63 | Draw 4.89 | Rapid Vienna 5.47. The model has a clear lean to Sturm Graz (61%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 62% | BTTS Yes probability 58% | Total xG 3.20. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 62% — the 3.20 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 58% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Sturm Graz as the most likely outcome at 61% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 20% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.20 combined xG gives a 62% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Sturm Graz's last 10 home games and Rapid Vienna's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Sturm Graz 40% (last 10 home games) | Rapid Vienna 40% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.

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