Sturm Graz 2-0 Austria Lustenau – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Sturm Graz (49%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Sturm Graz face Austria Lustenau.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Austria Lustenau make the trip to Merkur Arena to face Sturm Graz in Bundesliga (matchday 15). The match kicks off on Saturday 25 November 2023 at 16:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
Sturm Graz have collected 2.00 PPG across their last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W W L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
In front of their own supporters, Sturm Graz have posted 7W 2D 1L from their last 10 home games — 2.30 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Austria Lustenau (all games): 0W 1D 9L across their last 10 — 0.10 points per game. Last five: L D L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.60 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling, Austria Lustenau have posted 1W 5D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 exceeds their overall 0.10 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 1.90 in Sturm Graz's favour (2.00 vs 0.10) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Across the 3 H2H matches in our data, Sturm Graz have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins, with Austria Lustenau managing 0 and 0 draws. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 3 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.7 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 19 Aug 2023, ended Sturm Graz 1–0 Austria Lustenau — a Sturm Graz win.
The head-to-head data gives Sturm Graz an edge — 3 wins from 3 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading
Sturm Graz half-time and goal-timing data (last 46 games, 22 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 77% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 6 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 67%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Austria Lustenau half-time and goal-timing data (last 46 games, 22 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 13 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 54%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 46%; they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sturm Graz 56% versus Austria Lustenau 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sturm Graz 54% | Austria Lustenau 56%). Note also that Austria Lustenau surrender HT leads in 54% of cases while Sturm Graz recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 67% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sturm Graz 1.27 xG and Austria Lustenau 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sturm Graz attack 1.062 / defence 0.801 | Austria Lustenau attack 0.693 / defence 0.911. League average goals — home 1.318 / away 1.313. Austria Lustenau's attack rating of 0.693 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.73. Data: built from Sturm Graz's last 36 games and Austria Lustenau's last 36.
Result probabilities: Sturm Graz 49% | Draw 31% | Austria Lustenau 21%. Fair-value odds: Sturm Graz 2.05 | Draw 3.27 | Austria Lustenau 4.85. Sturm Graz hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS Yes probability 38% | Total xG 2.00. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.00 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 62% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sturm Graz at 49% — moderate model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sturm Graz if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.00 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 68% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Sturm Graz 50% (last 10 home games) | Austria Lustenau 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 15 | Venue: Merkur Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 25 November 2023 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sturm Graz 49% | Draw 31% | Austria Lustenau 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% (Under 68%) | BTTS Yes 38% (No 62%) | xG Sturm Graz 1.27 / Austria Lustenau 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Sturm Graz attack 1.062 / def 0.801 | Austria Lustenau attack 0.693 / def 0.911 | league avg home 1.318 / away 1.313 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.27
Sturm Graz xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Austria Lustenau xG
38%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau FAQs
What time does Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau kick off?
Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 25 November 2023 at Merkur Arena.
What was the final score in Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau?
Sturm Graz 2 - 0 Austria Lustenau.
Where is Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Arena.
What competition is Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau part of?
Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 15) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau?
Our statistical model gives Sturm Graz a 49% chance of winning, Austria Lustenau a 21% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Sturm Graz and Austria Lustenau will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (62%).
Will Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (68%).
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Sturm Graz's attack at 1.06x the league average against Austria Lustenau's defence at 0.91x — combine the two and it projects 1.27 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Austria Lustenau's attack (0.69x) against Sturm Graz's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 0.73.
These ratings are built from Sturm Graz's last 36 games and Austria Lustenau's last 36 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (15.1%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 45% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
49%
2.05
31%
3.27
21%
4.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.2%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.27
Sturm Graz xG
Total xG
2.00
0.73
Austria Lustenau xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
4.85
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.63
62%
BTTS No
1.61
Clean Sheet
48%
2.07
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
24%
4.25
6%
17.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 9.8 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.2 | 12.5 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.0 | 8.0 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.6%.
How many goals are Sturm Graz and Austria Lustenau expected to score?
The model projects 1.27 expected goals for Sturm Graz and 0.73 for Austria Lustenau, a combined total of 2.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 46 outings, Sturm Graz have picked up 2.09 PPG on a 29W 9D 8L record — W-W-L-L-W across the most recent five.
Austria Lustenau's form line: 11W 13D 22L from 46 games, 1.00 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-L.
Put side by side, Sturm Graz are the form team by 1.09 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Austria Lustenau.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Sturm Graz have posted 2.18 PPG from their last 22 home games (15W 3D 4L).
On the road, Austria Lustenau have gone 5W 8D 9L from their last 22 away games — 1.05 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sturm Graz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sturm Graz are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; Austria Lustenau are on 1.24 scored and 1.96 conceded.
Defensively: Sturm Graz have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 46 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sturm Graz
Blended
Austria Lustenau
Blended
Sturm Graz (Home) vs Austria Lustenau (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Sturm Graz
Blended
Austria Lustenau
Blended
❓ Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau Form FAQs
What form are Sturm Graz and Austria Lustenau in coming into this match?
Sturm Graz have gone 29W 9D 8L in their last 46 games (2.09 PPG), while Austria Lustenau have gone 11W 13D 22L in their last 46 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sturm Graz at home or Austria Lustenau away?
Sturm Graz's home record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sturm Graz at home: 2.18 PPG; Austria Lustenau away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Sturm Graz or Austria Lustenau been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sturm Graz have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Austria Lustenau in 17%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 5 H2H matches between Sturm Graz and Austria Lustenau, the earliest from September 2022. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 22 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sturm Graz have gone 2W 1D 0L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Austria Lustenau — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
4
Sturm Graz
1
Draws
0
Austria Lustenau
Recent Meetings
❓ Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and Austria Lustenau?
Across the 5 head-to-head matches in our data, Sturm Graz have won 4, Austria Lustenau have won 0, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Sturm Graz and Austria Lustenau last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 22 August 2026: Sturm Graz 1-1 Austria Lustenau.
Who has won more matches between Sturm Graz and Austria Lustenau?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 5 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 75% of those situations.
Austria Lustenau see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sturm Graz 50%, Austria Lustenau 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (Sturm Graz) and 46% (Austria Lustenau).
On the defensive side: Sturm Graz keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Austria Lustenau in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sturm Graz home games / Austria Lustenau away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Sturm Graz vs Austria Lustenau Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Sturm Graz and Austria Lustenau matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Sturm Graz's recent matches and 50% of Austria Lustenau's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Sturm Graz and Austria Lustenau matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of Sturm Graz's recent games and 46% of Austria Lustenau's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sturm Graz and Austria Lustenau matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 77% of Sturm Graz's recent matches and 59% of Austria Lustenau's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sturm Graz cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Austria Lustenau.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sturm Graz beat Austria Lustenau 2-0 at Merkur Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sturm Graz 1.27 xG and Austria Lustenau 0.73 xG, a combined 2.00. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sturm Graz attack 1.06 / defence 0.80 against Austria Lustenau attack 0.69 / defence 0.91, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sturm Graz 49% | Draw 31% | Austria Lustenau 21%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 49%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sturm Graz 54%, Austria Lustenau 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sturm Graz's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and duly kept one.
Austria Lustenau's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 1.00. Form held, and they took the win. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Austria Lustenau (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.09 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.