Sturm Graz 1-1 Admira Wacker – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sturm Graz at 41% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sturm Graz vs Admira Wacker encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Merkur Arena plays host to Sturm Graz versus Admira Wacker in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off: Saturday 4 December 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Sturm Graz's overall Bundesliga record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: L L D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.60 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Sturm Graz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sturm Graz at Merkur Arena this season: 4W 2D 2L from 8 home games — 1.75 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.12 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 62% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Admira Wacker have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Admira Wacker, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Admira Wacker's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 3L across 8 road games this term (0.88 PPG). Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 1.88 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.60 in Sturm Graz's favour (1.60 vs 1.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Sturm Graz have seen both teams score in 62% of their games, Admira Wacker in 75%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Sturm Graz 0W, Admira Wacker 0W, 1D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Sturm Graz — key trading statistics (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 88% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 56%.
Admira Wacker — key trading statistics (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Sturm Graz 69% and Admira Wacker 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Sturm Graz 81% | Admira Wacker 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sturm Graz 1.74 xG and Admira Wacker 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sturm Graz attack 1.138 / defence 1.337 | Admira Wacker attack 0.890 / defence 1.251. League average goals — home 1.220 / away 1.336. Admira Wacker bring a strong defensive rating of 1.251 — this is suppressing Sturm Graz's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 16 Sturm Graz games / 16 Admira Wacker games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sturm Graz 41% | Draw 24% | Admira Wacker 35%. Fair-value odds: Sturm Graz 2.44 | Draw 4.17 | Admira Wacker 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 65% | BTTS probability 66% | Total xG 3.33. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 65% — a total xG of 3.33 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 66% reflects that both xG figures (1.74 / 1.59) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Sturm Graz are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sturm Graz if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.33 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 65% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 66% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sturm Graz 62% | Admira Wacker 75% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sturm Graz vs Admira Wacker | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Merkur Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 4 Dec 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sturm Graz 41% | Draw 24% | Admira Wacker 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 65% | BTTS 66% | xG Sturm Graz 1.74 / Admira Wacker 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Sturm Graz attack 1.138 / def 1.337 | Admira Wacker attack 0.890 / def 1.251 | league avg home 1.220 / away 1.336 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.74
Sturm Graz xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Admira Wacker xG
66%
BTTS
85%
Over 1.5
65%
Over 2.5
43%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sturm Graz vs Admira Wacker kick off?
Sturm Graz vs Admira Wacker kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 4 December 2021 at Merkur Arena.
What was the final score in Sturm Graz vs Admira Wacker?
Sturm Graz 1 - 1 Admira Wacker.
Where is Sturm Graz vs Admira Wacker being played?
The match is being played at Merkur Arena.
What competition is Sturm Graz vs Admira Wacker part of?
Sturm Graz vs Admira Wacker is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Sturm Graz vs Admira Wacker?
Our statistical model gives Sturm Graz a 41% chance of winning, Admira Wacker a 35% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sturm Graz vs Admira Wacker?
Our model estimates a 66% probability that both Sturm Graz and Admira Wacker will score (BTTS).
Will Sturm Graz vs Admira Wacker have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 65%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and Admira Wacker?
Record (1 meetings): Sturm Graz 0W | Draws 1 | Admira Wacker 0W.
What form are Sturm Graz and Admira Wacker in?
Sturm Graz (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Admira Wacker (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Sturm Graz's attacking strength (1.14x league average) is weighed against Admira Wacker's defensive record (1.25x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.74. Flip it around — Admira Wacker's attack (0.89x) against Sturm Graz's defence (1.34x) — and the away total comes out at 1.59.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.2%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.6%), 1-2 (7.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
41%
2.43
24%
4.18
35%
2.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.6%
Home win
1 – 2
7.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.74
Sturm Graz xG
Total xG
3.33
1.59
Admira Wacker xG
2.43
41%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
2.86
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
84%
Over 1.5
1.19
16%
Under 1.5
6.25
65%
Over 2.5
1.54
35%
Under 2.5
2.86
43%
Over 3.5
2.33
57%
Under 3.5
1.75
24%
Over 4.5
4.17
76%
Under 4.5
1.32
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
66%
BTTS Yes
1.51
34%
BTTS No
2.95
Clean Sheet
20%
4.90
18%
5.68
Win to Nil
8%
11.91
6%
16.27
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.6 | 5.7 | 4.5 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 9.9 | 7.9 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.4 | 8.6 | 6.8 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 2.2 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sturm Graz vs Admira Wacker?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Sturm Graz and Admira Wacker expected to score?
The model projects 1.74 expected goals for Sturm Graz and 1.59 for Admira Wacker, a combined total of 3.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Sturm Graz vs Admira Wacker?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Sturm Graz's recent record stands at 8W 3D 5L from 16 games, a 1.69 PPG return, with L-L-D-L-W in the last five. The sample for Sturm Graz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Admira Wacker, meanwhile, have gone 3W 6D 7L across 16 games — 0.94 PPG, with L-D-L-D-L in their last five. The sample for Admira Wacker is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sturm Graz by 0.75 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Admira Wacker heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Sturm Graz have managed 4W 2D 2L from 8 games — 1.75 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Admira Wacker's away record stands at 1W 4D 3L across 8 trips, a 0.88 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sturm Graz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sturm Graz are averaging 2.06 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Admira Wacker are on 1.19 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Sturm Graz have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games.
Last 16 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sturm Graz
Blended
Admira Wacker
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sturm Graz and Admira Wacker in coming into this match?
Sturm Graz have gone 8W 3D 5L in their last 16 games (1.69 PPG), while Admira Wacker have gone 3W 6D 7L in their last 16 (0.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sturm Graz at home or Admira Wacker away?
Sturm Graz's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sturm Graz at home: 1.75 PPG; Admira Wacker away: 0.88 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 2 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 4 December 2021, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Sturm Graz
2
Draws
0
Admira Wacker
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sturm Graz and Admira Wacker?
From 2 meetings on record, Sturm Graz have won 0, Admira Wacker have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sturm Graz and Admira Wacker last play each other?
They last met on 4 December 2021, when Sturm Graz 1-1 Admira Wacker.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Admira Wacker are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 62% for Sturm Graz, 75% for Admira Wacker — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 88% for Sturm Graz and 75% for Admira Wacker. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 62% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sturm Graz home games / Admira Wacker away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sturm Graz play Admira Wacker?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Sturm Graz's games and 75% of Admira Wacker's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sturm Graz vs Admira Wacker usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 88% of Sturm Graz's matches and 75% of Admira Wacker's.
Do Sturm Graz and Admira Wacker tend to score early?
Sturm Graz have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Admira Wacker in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Sturm Graz and Admira Wacker share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Merkur Arena, Regular Season - 17, as Sturm Graz and Admira Wacker drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sturm Graz 1.74 xG and Admira Wacker 1.59 xG, a combined 3.33. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sturm Graz attack 1.14 / defence 1.34 against Admira Wacker attack 0.89 / defence 1.25, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sturm Graz 41% | Draw 24% | Admira Wacker 35%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 65%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 85% and landed. Over 3.5 was 43% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 66% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 66% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sturm Graz 81%, Admira Wacker 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sturm Graz's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Admira Wacker's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 1.69 PPG against 0.94. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.12 scoring average — below par going forward. Admira Wacker (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.