SCR Altach 1-1 Red Bull Salzburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SCR Altach at 37%, yet in-form Red Bull Salzburg provide a compelling counter-argument — this SCR Altach vs Red Bull Salzburg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 15 as SCR Altach welcome Red Bull Salzburg to Cashpoint-Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 30 November 2025 at 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, SCR Altach have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.90 PPG return. Last five: D D L L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for SCR Altach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, SCR Altach have posted 4W 5D 1L at Cashpoint-Arena — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.90 — SCR Altach are significantly better at Cashpoint-Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Red Bull Salzburg stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W W D L. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.60. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Red Bull Salzburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Red Bull Salzburg's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.70 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Red Bull Salzburg are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.50 vs 0.90), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Red Bull Salzburg have the better historical record — 5 wins from 9 previous contests against 0 for SCR Altach.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Red Bull Salzburg have won 5 of 9 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
SCR Altach in-play and half-time data (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 63% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Red Bull Salzburg in-play and half-time data (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SCR Altach 48% versus Red Bull Salzburg 61%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SCR Altach 39% | Red Bull Salzburg 63%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SCR Altach 1.38 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SCR Altach attack 1.038 / defence 0.900 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.141 / defence 0.963. League average goals — home 1.382 / away 1.344. Data: 36 SCR Altach games / 36 Red Bull Salzburg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SCR Altach 37% | Draw 25% | Red Bull Salzburg 37%. Fair-value odds: SCR Altach 2.70 | Draw 4.00 | Red Bull Salzburg 2.70. The draw (25%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.76. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.76 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 25% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 37% and away win at 37% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.76 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 52% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 56% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: SCR Altach 50% | Red Bull Salzburg 90% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 37% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SCR Altach vs Red Bull Salzburg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Cashpoint-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Nov 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SCR Altach 37% | Draw 25% | Red Bull Salzburg 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 56% | xG SCR Altach 1.38 / Red Bull Salzburg 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: SCR Altach attack 1.038 / def 0.900 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.141 / def 0.963 | league avg home 1.382 / away 1.344 • Poisson stance: Draw (25%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
SCR Altach xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Red Bull Salzburg xG
56%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SCR Altach vs Red Bull Salzburg kick off?
SCR Altach vs Red Bull Salzburg kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 30 November 2025 at Cashpoint-Arena.
What was the final score in SCR Altach vs Red Bull Salzburg?
SCR Altach 1 - 1 Red Bull Salzburg.
Where is SCR Altach vs Red Bull Salzburg being played?
The match is being played at Cashpoint-Arena.
What competition is SCR Altach vs Red Bull Salzburg part of?
SCR Altach vs Red Bull Salzburg is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win SCR Altach vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our statistical model gives SCR Altach a 37% chance of winning, Red Bull Salzburg a 37% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in SCR Altach vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both SCR Altach and Red Bull Salzburg will score (BTTS).
Will SCR Altach vs Red Bull Salzburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and Red Bull Salzburg?
Record (9 meetings): SCR Altach 0W | Draws 4 | Red Bull Salzburg 5W.
What form are SCR Altach and Red Bull Salzburg in?
SCR Altach (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-L-W. Red Bull Salzburg (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates SCR Altach's attack at 1.04x the league average against Red Bull Salzburg's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.38 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Red Bull Salzburg's attack versus SCR Altach's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.3%), 2-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SCR Altach Win
37%
2.68
25%
3.92
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.7%
Away win
1 – 0
8.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
SCR Altach xG
Total xG
2.76
1.38
Red Bull Salzburg xG
2.68
37%
Home win
3.92
25%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
25%
3.97
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
9%
10.67
9%
10.67
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.3 | 8.7 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.7 | 12.1 | 8.3 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.3 | 5.7 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 3.8 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SCR Altach vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are SCR Altach and Red Bull Salzburg expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for SCR Altach and 1.38 for Red Bull Salzburg, a combined total of 2.76.
How confident is the prediction model for SCR Altach vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 46 outings, SCR Altach have picked up 0.93 PPG on a 9W 16D 21L record — D-D-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for SCR Altach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Red Bull Salzburg's form line: 23W 13D 10L from 46 games, 1.78 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-L. The sample for Red Bull Salzburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Red Bull Salzburg are the form team by 0.85 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against SCR Altach.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, SCR Altach have posted 1.18 PPG from 22 outings (5W 11D 6L).
On the road, Red Bull Salzburg have gone 9W 7D 6L from 22 away games — 1.55 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
SCR Altach are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.33 conceded per game recently; Red Bull Salzburg are on 1.83 scored and 1.20 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Red Bull Salzburg in 61%.
Last 46 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SCR Altach
Blended
Red Bull Salzburg
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SCR Altach and Red Bull Salzburg in coming into this match?
SCR Altach have gone 9W 16D 21L in their last 46 games (0.93 PPG), while Red Bull Salzburg have gone 23W 13D 10L in their last 46 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SCR Altach at home or Red Bull Salzburg away?
Red Bull Salzburg's away record (1.55 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SCR Altach at home: 1.18 PPG; Red Bull Salzburg away: 1.55 PPG.
Have SCR Altach or Red Bull Salzburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
SCR Altach have kept a clean sheet in 20% of their recent games, Red Bull Salzburg in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SCR Altach and Red Bull Salzburg runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 30 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The last 3 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Mar 2022, when Red Bull Salzburg won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SCR Altach's record when hosting Red Bull Salzburg specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
SCR Altach
5
Draws
5
Red Bull Salzburg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and Red Bull Salzburg?
From 10 meetings on record, SCR Altach have won 0, Red Bull Salzburg have won 5, and 5 have been drawn.
When did SCR Altach and Red Bull Salzburg last play each other?
They last met on 30 November 2025, when SCR Altach 1-1 Red Bull Salzburg.
Who has won more matches between SCR Altach and Red Bull Salzburg?
Red Bull Salzburg have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SCR Altach see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Red Bull Salzburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SCR Altach 54%, Red Bull Salzburg 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (SCR Altach) and 54% (Red Bull Salzburg).
On the defensive side: Red Bull Salzburg in 32%; SCR Altach have failed to score in 27% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SCR Altach home games / Red Bull Salzburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SCR Altach play Red Bull Salzburg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of SCR Altach's games and 59% of Red Bull Salzburg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is SCR Altach vs Red Bull Salzburg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of SCR Altach's recent games and 54% of Red Bull Salzburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SCR Altach and Red Bull Salzburg tend to score early?
SCR Altach have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Red Bull Salzburg in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SCR Altach and Red Bull Salzburg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
SCR Altach and Red Bull Salzburg finished level at 1-1 at Cashpoint-Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SCR Altach 1.38 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 1.38 xG, a combined 2.76. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SCR Altach attack 1.04 / defence 0.90 against Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.14 / defence 0.96, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SCR Altach 37% | Draw 25% | Red Bull Salzburg 37%, with SCR Altach to win its most likely call at 37%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SCR Altach 39%, Red Bull Salzburg 63%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SCR Altach's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Red Bull Salzburg arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.