SCR Altach 1-1 Red Bull Salzburg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 40% as SCR Altach take on Red Bull Salzburg.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
SCR Altach welcome Red Bull Salzburg to CASHPOINT Arena in Bundesliga (matchday 21). Kick-off is Sunday 9 March 2025 at 16:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, SCR Altach have gone 1W 3D 6L — a 0.60 PPG return. Last five: L L W D L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).
In front of their own supporters, SCR Altach have posted 1W 4D 5L from their last 10 home games — 0.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Red Bull Salzburg stand at 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Red Bull Salzburg's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Red Bull Salzburg are 1.00 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.60), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Head to Head
Despite the home advantage, Red Bull Salzburg have the better record in our head-to-head data — 5 wins from 6 H2H matches against 0 for SCR Altach.
The 6 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.2 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 19 Oct 2024, ended SCR Altach 1–2 Red Bull Salzburg — a Red Bull Salzburg win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Red Bull Salzburg have won 5 of 6 H2H matches, and at 3.2 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
Trading Patterns
SCR Altach in-play and half-time data (last 52 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; of the 7 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Red Bull Salzburg in-play and half-time data (last 52 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; of the 7 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 57%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SCR Altach 48% versus Red Bull Salzburg 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SCR Altach 44% | Red Bull Salzburg 50%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: SCR Altach surrender their half-time lead 29% of the time, while Red Bull Salzburg have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 57% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SCR Altach 0.84 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SCR Altach attack 0.725 / defence 0.983 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 0.774 / defence 0.759. League average goals — home 1.521 / away 1.205. SCR Altach's attack rating of 0.725 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.84. Red Bull Salzburg bring a tight defence (rating 0.759, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling SCR Altach's projected output down. Red Bull Salzburg's attack rating of 0.774 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.92. Data: built from SCR Altach's last 42 games and Red Bull Salzburg's last 42.
Result probabilities: SCR Altach 28% | Draw 40% | Red Bull Salzburg 32%. Fair-value odds: SCR Altach 3.62 | Draw 2.47 | Red Bull Salzburg 3.12. The draw (40%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS Yes probability 38% | Total xG 1.75. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.75 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 62% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 40% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 28% and away win at 32% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.75 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 74% — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (SCR Altach's last 10 home games and Red Bull Salzburg's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 3.2 goals per game across 6 H2H matches points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on No. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: SCR Altach 60% (last 10 home games) | Red Bull Salzburg 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SCR Altach vs Red Bull Salzburg | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 21 | Venue: CASHPOINT Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 9 March 2025 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SCR Altach 28% | Draw 40% | Red Bull Salzburg 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% (Under 74%) | BTTS Yes 38% (No 62%) | xG SCR Altach 0.84 / Red Bull Salzburg 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: SCR Altach attack 0.725 / def 0.983 | Red Bull Salzburg attack 0.774 / def 0.759 | league avg home 1.521 / away 1.205 • Poisson stance: Draw (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.84
SCR Altach xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Red Bull Salzburg xG
38%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ SCR Altach vs Red Bull Salzburg FAQs
What time does SCR Altach vs Red Bull Salzburg kick off?
SCR Altach vs Red Bull Salzburg kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 9 March 2025 at CASHPOINT Arena.
What was the final score in SCR Altach vs Red Bull Salzburg?
SCR Altach 1 - 1 Red Bull Salzburg.
Where is SCR Altach vs Red Bull Salzburg being played?
The match is being played at CASHPOINT Arena.
What competition is SCR Altach vs Red Bull Salzburg part of?
SCR Altach vs Red Bull Salzburg is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 21) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win SCR Altach vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our statistical model gives SCR Altach a 28% chance of winning, Red Bull Salzburg a 32% chance, and a 40% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in SCR Altach vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both SCR Altach and Red Bull Salzburg will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (62%).
Will SCR Altach vs Red Bull Salzburg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (74%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates SCR Altach's attack at 0.72x the league average against Red Bull Salzburg's defence at 0.76x — combine the two and it projects 0.84 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Red Bull Salzburg's attack versus SCR Altach's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from SCR Altach's last 42 games and Red Bull Salzburg's last 42 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 19.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
28%
3.62
40%
2.47
32%
3.12
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
17.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
15.9%
Away win
1 – 0
14.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.84
SCR Altach xG
Total xG
1.75
0.92
Red Bull Salzburg xG
3.62
28%
Home win
2.47
40%
Draw
3.12
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
52%
Over 1.5
1.92
48%
Under 1.5
2.08
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.66
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
43%
2.31
Win to Nil
11%
9.07
14%
7.22
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.3 | 15.9 | 7.3 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.5 | 13.3 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.1 | 5.6 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ SCR Altach vs Red Bull Salzburg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for SCR Altach vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.0%.
How many goals are SCR Altach and Red Bull Salzburg expected to score?
The model projects 0.84 expected goals for SCR Altach and 0.92 for Red Bull Salzburg, a combined total of 1.75.
How confident is the prediction model for SCR Altach vs Red Bull Salzburg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 52 outings, SCR Altach have picked up 0.87 PPG on a 9W 18D 25L record — L-L-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Red Bull Salzburg's form line: 29W 14D 9L from 52 games, 1.94 PPG, last five W-D-D-W-W.
Put side by side, Red Bull Salzburg are the form team by 1.07 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against SCR Altach.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, SCR Altach have posted 0.88 PPG from their last 26 home games (4W 11D 11L).
On the road, Red Bull Salzburg have gone 12W 8D 6L from their last 26 away games — 1.69 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Red Bull Salzburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
SCR Altach are averaging 0.85 goals scored and 1.38 conceded per game recently; Red Bull Salzburg are on 2.02 scored and 0.96 conceded.
Defensively: Red Bull Salzburg in 44% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 52 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SCR Altach
Blended
Red Bull Salzburg
Blended
SCR Altach (Home) vs Red Bull Salzburg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
SCR Altach
Blended
Red Bull Salzburg
Blended
❓ SCR Altach vs Red Bull Salzburg Form FAQs
What form are SCR Altach and Red Bull Salzburg in coming into this match?
SCR Altach have gone 9W 18D 25L in their last 52 games (0.87 PPG), while Red Bull Salzburg have gone 29W 14D 9L in their last 52 (1.94 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SCR Altach at home or Red Bull Salzburg away?
Red Bull Salzburg's away record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SCR Altach at home: 0.88 PPG; Red Bull Salzburg away: 1.69 PPG.
Have SCR Altach or Red Bull Salzburg been keeping clean sheets recently?
SCR Altach have kept a clean sheet in 23% of their recent games, Red Bull Salzburg in 44%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to March 2022. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 18 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 5 Mar 2022, when Red Bull Salzburg won Red Bull Salzburg 4-0 SCR Altach.
SCR Altach's record when hosting Red Bull Salzburg specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
SCR Altach
4
Draws
6
Red Bull Salzburg
Recent Meetings
❓ SCR Altach vs Red Bull Salzburg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and Red Bull Salzburg?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, SCR Altach have won 0, Red Bull Salzburg have won 6, and 4 have been drawn.
When did SCR Altach and Red Bull Salzburg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 18 October 2026: Red Bull Salzburg 3-0 SCR Altach.
Who has won more matches between SCR Altach and Red Bull Salzburg?
Red Bull Salzburg have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 38% of those situations.
Red Bull Salzburg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SCR Altach 50%, Red Bull Salzburg 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (SCR Altach) and 42% (Red Bull Salzburg).
On the defensive side: Red Bull Salzburg in 46%; SCR Altach have failed to score in 38% of games; Red Bull Salzburg in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SCR Altach home games / Red Bull Salzburg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ SCR Altach vs Red Bull Salzburg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in SCR Altach and Red Bull Salzburg matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of SCR Altach's recent matches and 42% of Red Bull Salzburg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are SCR Altach and Red Bull Salzburg matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of SCR Altach's recent games and 42% of Red Bull Salzburg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SCR Altach and Red Bull Salzburg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 62% of SCR Altach's recent matches and 69% of Red Bull Salzburg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SCR Altach and Red Bull Salzburg share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at CASHPOINT Arena, Regular Season - 21, as SCR Altach and Red Bull Salzburg drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SCR Altach 0.84 xG and Red Bull Salzburg 0.92 xG, a combined 1.75. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SCR Altach attack 0.72 / defence 0.98 against Red Bull Salzburg attack 0.77 / defence 0.76, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SCR Altach 28% | Draw 40% | Red Bull Salzburg 32%, with the draw its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SCR Altach 44%, Red Bull Salzburg 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SCR Altach's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Red Bull Salzburg arrived the stronger side — 1.94 PPG against 0.87. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.