SCR Altach 2-2 Austria Lustenau – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates SCR Altach at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this SCR Altach vs Austria Lustenau fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Relegation Round - 10 as SCR Altach welcome Austria Lustenau to CASHPOINT Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 18 May 2024 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, SCR Altach stand at 2W 6D 2L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L D L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
SCR Altach's home record at CASHPOINT Arena: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Austria Lustenau — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Bundesliga fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L D W W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Austria Lustenau's form when playing away from home: 1W 5D 4L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.20 PPG (SCR Altach) versus 1.30 (Austria Lustenau). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 7 previous meetings, SCR Altach have won 3, Austria Lustenau 3, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Apr 2024, ended 1–0 with SCR Altach winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
SCR Altach in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Austria Lustenau in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — SCR Altach 48% versus Austria Lustenau 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (SCR Altach 44% | Austria Lustenau 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects SCR Altach 1.39 xG and Austria Lustenau 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: SCR Altach attack 0.838 / defence 0.988 | Austria Lustenau attack 0.887 / defence 1.235. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 1.013. Austria Lustenau bring a strong defensive rating of 1.235 — this is suppressing SCR Altach's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 SCR Altach games / 44 Austria Lustenau games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: SCR Altach 47% | Draw 30% | Austria Lustenau 23%. Fair-value odds: SCR Altach 2.13 | Draw 3.33 | Austria Lustenau 4.35. SCR Altach hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.27. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.27 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates SCR Altach as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SCR Altach offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.27 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 40% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates corroborate: SCR Altach 40% | Austria Lustenau 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: SCR Altach vs Austria Lustenau | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 10 | Venue: CASHPOINT Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 18 May 2024, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: SCR Altach 47% | Draw 30% | Austria Lustenau 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 45% | xG SCR Altach 1.39 / Austria Lustenau 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: SCR Altach attack 0.838 / def 0.988 | Austria Lustenau attack 0.887 / def 1.235 | league avg home 1.340 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: SCR Altach (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.39
SCR Altach xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Austria Lustenau xG
45%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does SCR Altach vs Austria Lustenau kick off?
SCR Altach vs Austria Lustenau kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 18 May 2024 at CASHPOINT Arena.
What was the final score in SCR Altach vs Austria Lustenau?
SCR Altach 2 - 2 Austria Lustenau.
Where is SCR Altach vs Austria Lustenau being played?
The match is being played at CASHPOINT Arena.
What competition is SCR Altach vs Austria Lustenau part of?
SCR Altach vs Austria Lustenau is a Relegation Round - 10 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win SCR Altach vs Austria Lustenau?
Our statistical model gives SCR Altach a 47% chance of winning, Austria Lustenau a 23% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making SCR Altach the favourite.
Will both teams score in SCR Altach vs Austria Lustenau?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both SCR Altach and Austria Lustenau will score (BTTS).
Will SCR Altach vs Austria Lustenau have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and Austria Lustenau?
Record (7 meetings): SCR Altach 3W | Draws 1 | Austria Lustenau 3W.
What form are SCR Altach and Austria Lustenau in?
SCR Altach (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-D-L-W. Austria Lustenau (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-L-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates SCR Altach's attack at 0.84x the league average against Austria Lustenau's defence at 1.24x — combine the two and it projects 1.39 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Austria Lustenau's attack versus SCR Altach's defence, projects 0.89 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.6%), 0-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
SCR Altach Win
47%
2.12
30%
3.33
23%
4.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
0 – 0
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.39
SCR Altach xG
Total xG
2.27
0.89
Austria Lustenau xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.33
30%
Draw
4.40
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
41%
2.43
25%
4.00
Win to Nil
19%
5.15
6%
17.62
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.3 | 9.1 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 14.3 | 12.7 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 8.8 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 4.6 | 4.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for SCR Altach vs Austria Lustenau?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are SCR Altach and Austria Lustenau expected to score?
The model projects 1.39 expected goals for SCR Altach and 0.89 for Austria Lustenau, a combined total of 2.27.
How confident is the prediction model for SCR Altach vs Austria Lustenau?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
SCR Altach come into this having played 63 games, going 12W 22D 29L for 0.92 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-L-W.
On the other side, Austria Lustenau sit at 1.00 PPG from 63 outings (15W 18D 30L), a run that reads D-L-D-W-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: SCR Altach on 0.92 PPG, Austria Lustenau on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
SCR Altach's home form reads 6W 11D 14L across 31 games on their own ground, a 0.94 PPG return.
Away from home, Austria Lustenau have taken 1.00 points per game from 31 outings (6W 13D 12L).
The Goals Picture
SCR Altach are averaging 0.86 goals scored and 1.44 conceded per game recently; Austria Lustenau are on 1.11 scored and 1.81 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
SCR Altach
Current Season
Austria Lustenau
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are SCR Altach and Austria Lustenau in coming into this match?
SCR Altach have gone 12W 22D 29L in their last 63 games (0.92 PPG), while Austria Lustenau have gone 15W 18D 30L in their last 63 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — SCR Altach at home or Austria Lustenau away?
Austria Lustenau's away record (1.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — SCR Altach at home: 0.94 PPG; Austria Lustenau away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between SCR Altach and Austria Lustenau runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Nov 2022, when Austria Lustenau won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
SCR Altach's record when hosting Austria Lustenau specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
SCR Altach
2
Draws
3
Austria Lustenau
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between SCR Altach and Austria Lustenau?
From 8 meetings on record, SCR Altach have won 3, Austria Lustenau have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did SCR Altach and Austria Lustenau last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2024, when SCR Altach 2-2 Austria Lustenau.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Austria Lustenau see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — SCR Altach 48%, Austria Lustenau 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (SCR Altach) and 39% (Austria Lustenau).
On the defensive side: SCR Altach have failed to score in 39% of games; Austria Lustenau in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = SCR Altach home games / Austria Lustenau away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when SCR Altach play Austria Lustenau?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of SCR Altach's recent matches and 45% of Austria Lustenau's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is SCR Altach vs Austria Lustenau usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of SCR Altach's recent games and 39% of Austria Lustenau's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do SCR Altach and Austria Lustenau tend to score early?
SCR Altach have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Austria Lustenau in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
SCR Altach and Austria Lustenau share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at CASHPOINT Arena, Relegation Round - 10, as SCR Altach and Austria Lustenau drew 2-2 in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting SCR Altach 1.39 xG and Austria Lustenau 0.89 xG, a combined 2.27. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Austria Lustenau outscored their 0.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of SCR Altach attack 0.84 / defence 0.99 against Austria Lustenau attack 0.89 / defence 1.24, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it SCR Altach 47% | Draw 30% | Austria Lustenau 23%, with SCR Altach to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (SCR Altach 44%, Austria Lustenau 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
SCR Altach's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Austria Lustenau's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — SCR Altach 0.92 PPG, Austria Lustenau 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. SCR Altach (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.87 average — above their attacking norm. Austria Lustenau (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.