Red Bull Salzburg 5-1 TSV Hartberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Red Bull Salzburg at 64% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
TSV Hartberg travel to Red Bull Arena to take on Red Bull Salzburg in Bundesliga (Championship Round - 1). The game is scheduled for Sunday 17 March 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Red Bull Salzburg have gone 7W 3D 0L — a 2.40 PPG return. Last five: D D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.40 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters, Red Bull Salzburg have posted 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at their last 10 matches, TSV Hartberg stand at 4W 3D 3L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, TSV Hartberg have posted 4W 2D 4L from their last 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Red Bull Salzburg carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.90 PPG ahead of their opponents on 2.40 vs 1.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 1 wins for Red Bull Salzburg, 0 for TSV Hartberg and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 5.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 25 Nov 2023, ended Red Bull Salzburg 3–2 TSV Hartberg — a Red Bull Salzburg win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Red Bull Salzburg trading profile (last 54 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 60%; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time.
TSV Hartberg trading profile (last 54 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; of the 19 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 32%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Red Bull Salzburg 43% versus TSV Hartberg 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Red Bull Salzburg 46% | TSV Hartberg 59%). Note also that TSV Hartberg surrender HT leads in 27% of cases while Red Bull Salzburg recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 60% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Red Bull Salzburg 2.03 xG and TSV Hartberg 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.426 / defence 0.741 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.129 / defence 1.062. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.013. Red Bull Salzburg carry an above-average attack rating of 1.426 — their 2.03 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Red Bull Salzburg have a tight defence (rating 0.741), which is pulling TSV Hartberg's projected output down. Data: built from Red Bull Salzburg's last 44 games and TSV Hartberg's last 44.
Result probabilities: Red Bull Salzburg 64% | Draw 22% | TSV Hartberg 14%. Fair-value odds: Red Bull Salzburg 1.57 | Draw 4.46 | TSV Hartberg 7.27. The model has a clear lean to Red Bull Salzburg (64%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Red Bull Salzburg as the most likely outcome at 64% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.88 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Red Bull Salzburg 20% (last 10 home games) | TSV Hartberg 50% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Championship Round - 1 | Venue: Red Bull Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 17 March 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Red Bull Salzburg 64% | Draw 22% | TSV Hartberg 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% (Under 45%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Red Bull Salzburg 2.03 / TSV Hartberg 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.426 / def 0.741 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.129 / def 1.062 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: Red Bull Salzburg (64%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.03
Red Bull Salzburg xG
Expected Goals
0.85
TSV Hartberg xG
51%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg FAQs
What time does Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 17 March 2024 at Red Bull Arena.
What was the final score in Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg?
Red Bull Salzburg 5 - 1 TSV Hartberg.
Where is Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at Red Bull Arena.
What competition is Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg part of?
Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg is a Bundesliga fixture (Championship Round - 1) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives Red Bull Salzburg a 64% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 14% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Red Bull Salzburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Red Bull Salzburg and TSV Hartberg will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Red Bull Salzburg's attacking strength (1.43x league average) is weighed against TSV Hartberg's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.03. The same calculation in reverse, TSV Hartberg's attack versus Red Bull Salzburg's defence, projects 0.85 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Red Bull Salzburg's last 44 games and TSV Hartberg's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 11.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.0%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Red Bull Salzburg Win
64%
1.57
22%
4.46
14%
7.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.03
Red Bull Salzburg xG
Total xG
2.88
0.85
TSV Hartberg xG
1.57
64%
Home win
4.46
22%
Draw
7.27
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
13%
7.60
Win to Nil
27%
3.65
2%
55.26
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 11.4 | 9.7 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.8 | 6.6 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Red Bull Salzburg and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 2.03 expected goals for Red Bull Salzburg and 0.85 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 64%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 54 outings, Red Bull Salzburg have picked up 2.35 PPG on a 38W 13D 3L record — D-D-W-W-W across the most recent five.
TSV Hartberg's form line: 18W 13D 23L from 54 games, 1.24 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-D.
Put side by side, Red Bull Salzburg are the form team by 1.11 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against TSV Hartberg.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Red Bull Salzburg have posted 2.26 PPG from their last 27 home games (18W 7D 2L).
On the road, TSV Hartberg have gone 8W 6D 13L from their last 27 away games — 1.11 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Red Bull Salzburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Red Bull Salzburg are averaging 2.07 goals scored and 0.63 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.33 scored and 1.56 conceded.
Defensively: Red Bull Salzburg have kept a clean sheet in 54% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 54 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Red Bull Salzburg
Blended
TSV Hartberg
Blended
Red Bull Salzburg (Home) vs TSV Hartberg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Red Bull Salzburg
Blended
TSV Hartberg
Blended
❓ Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg Form FAQs
What form are Red Bull Salzburg and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
Red Bull Salzburg have gone 38W 13D 3L in their last 54 games (2.35 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 18W 13D 23L in their last 54 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Red Bull Salzburg at home or TSV Hartberg away?
Red Bull Salzburg's home record (2.26 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Red Bull Salzburg at home: 2.26 PPG; TSV Hartberg away: 1.11 PPG.
Have Red Bull Salzburg or TSV Hartberg been keeping clean sheets recently?
Red Bull Salzburg have kept a clean sheet in 54% of their recent games, TSV Hartberg in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to November 2023. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 1 August 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 17 Mar 2024, when Red Bull Salzburg won Red Bull Salzburg 5-1 TSV Hartberg.
Red Bull Salzburg's record when hosting TSV Hartberg specifically: 4W 1D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Red Bull Salzburg
2
Draws
1
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Red Bull Salzburg and TSV Hartberg?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Red Bull Salzburg have won 7, TSV Hartberg have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Red Bull Salzburg and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 August 2026: Red Bull Salzburg 1-0 TSV Hartberg.
Who has won more matches between Red Bull Salzburg and TSV Hartberg?
Red Bull Salzburg have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Red Bull Salzburg see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Red Bull Salzburg 37%, TSV Hartberg 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Red Bull Salzburg) and 59% (TSV Hartberg).
On the defensive side: Red Bull Salzburg keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; TSV Hartberg in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Red Bull Salzburg home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Red Bull Salzburg vs TSV Hartberg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Red Bull Salzburg and TSV Hartberg matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Red Bull Salzburg's recent matches and 52% of TSV Hartberg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Red Bull Salzburg and TSV Hartberg matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Red Bull Salzburg's recent games and 59% of TSV Hartberg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Red Bull Salzburg and TSV Hartberg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 59% of Red Bull Salzburg's recent matches and 70% of TSV Hartberg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Red Bull Salzburg run riot with a 5-1 hammering of TSV Hartberg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Red Bull Salzburg beat TSV Hartberg 5-1 at Red Bull Arena, Championship Round - 1, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Red Bull Salzburg 2.03 xG and TSV Hartberg 0.85 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Red Bull Salzburg beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.43 / defence 0.74 against TSV Hartberg attack 1.13 / defence 1.06, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Red Bull Salzburg 64% | Draw 22% | TSV Hartberg 14%, with Red Bull Salzburg to win its most likely call at 64%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Red Bull Salzburg 46%, TSV Hartberg 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (54 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and conceded here.
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (54 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Red Bull Salzburg arrived the stronger side — 2.35 PPG against 1.24. That form edge translated into the three points. Red Bull Salzburg (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.93 average — above their attacking norm. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.59 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.