Red Bull Salzburg 3-3 Austria Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Red Bull Salzburg at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Vienna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Austria Vienna make the trip to Red Bull Arena to face Red Bull Salzburg in Bundesliga, Championship Round - 2. The match kicks off on Sunday 9 April 2023 at 13:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Red Bull Salzburg have collected 2.80 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 9W 1D 0L. Last five: W W W D W. They are averaging 2.30 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Red Bull Salzburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Red Bull Salzburg's home record at Red Bull Arena: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Red Bull Arena. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.20 lags behind their overall 2.80 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Red Bull Arena this season.
Austria Vienna (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.70 points per game. Last five: W W L W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Austria Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Austria Vienna have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.50 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Red Bull Salzburg. A 1.10 PPG lead over Austria Vienna (2.80 vs 1.70) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading Data
Red Bull Salzburg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time.
Austria Vienna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Red Bull Salzburg 47% versus Austria Vienna 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Red Bull Salzburg 56% | Austria Vienna 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Red Bull Salzburg 1.67 xG and Austria Vienna 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.117 / defence 0.724 | Austria Vienna attack 1.042 / defence 1.085. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 1.335. Red Bull Salzburg's defence rating of 0.724 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 44 Red Bull Salzburg games / 44 Austria Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Red Bull Salzburg 53% | Draw 24% | Austria Vienna 23%. Fair-value odds: Red Bull Salzburg 1.89 | Draw 4.17 | Austria Vienna 4.35. Red Bull Salzburg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Red Bull Salzburg at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Red Bull Salzburg if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Red Bull Salzburg 40% | Austria Vienna 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Championship Round - 2 | Venue: Red Bull Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Apr 2023, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Red Bull Salzburg 53% | Draw 24% | Austria Vienna 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 52% | xG Red Bull Salzburg 1.67 / Austria Vienna 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.117 / def 0.724 | Austria Vienna attack 1.042 / def 1.085 | league avg home 1.380 / away 1.335 • Poisson stance: Red Bull Salzburg (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Red Bull Salzburg xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Austria Vienna xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Vienna kick off?
Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Vienna kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 9 April 2023 at Red Bull Arena.
What was the final score in Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Vienna?
Red Bull Salzburg 3 - 3 Austria Vienna.
Where is Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Red Bull Arena.
What competition is Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Vienna part of?
Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Vienna is a Championship Round - 2 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Vienna?
Our statistical model gives Red Bull Salzburg a 53% chance of winning, Austria Vienna a 23% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Red Bull Salzburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Vienna?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Red Bull Salzburg and Austria Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Red Bull Salzburg and Austria Vienna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Red Bull Salzburg and Austria Vienna in?
Red Bull Salzburg (all comps): 9W-1D-0L in 10 | 2.80 PPG | GF 2.30 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-D-W. Austria Vienna (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Red Bull Salzburg's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Austria Vienna's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.67. Flip it around — Austria Vienna's attack (1.04x) against Red Bull Salzburg's defence (0.72x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.0%), 2-1 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Red Bull Salzburg Win
53%
1.89
24%
4.12
23%
4.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Red Bull Salzburg xG
Total xG
2.68
1.01
Austria Vienna xG
1.89
53%
Home win
4.12
24%
Draw
4.39
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
36%
2.74
19%
5.33
Win to Nil
19%
5.17
4%
23.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 6.9 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 11.6 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.6 | 9.7 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.3 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Red Bull Salzburg and Austria Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Red Bull Salzburg and 1.01 for Austria Vienna, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 55 outings, Red Bull Salzburg have picked up 2.51 PPG on a 43W 9D 3L record — W-W-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Red Bull Salzburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Austria Vienna's form line: 21W 19D 15L from 55 games, 1.49 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-D. The sample for Austria Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Red Bull Salzburg are the form team by 1.02 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Austria Vienna.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Red Bull Salzburg have posted 2.56 PPG from 27 outings (21W 6D 0L).
On the road, Austria Vienna have gone 9W 9D 9L from 27 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Red Bull Salzburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Red Bull Salzburg are averaging 2.35 goals scored and 0.58 conceded per game recently; Austria Vienna are on 1.51 scored and 1.31 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Austria Vienna in 64%.
Defensively: Red Bull Salzburg have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Red Bull Salzburg
Blended
Austria Vienna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Red Bull Salzburg and Austria Vienna in coming into this match?
Red Bull Salzburg have gone 43W 9D 3L in their last 55 games (2.51 PPG), while Austria Vienna have gone 21W 19D 15L in their last 55 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Red Bull Salzburg at home or Austria Vienna away?
Red Bull Salzburg's home record (2.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Red Bull Salzburg at home: 2.56 PPG; Austria Vienna away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Red Bull Salzburg or Austria Vienna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Red Bull Salzburg have kept a clean sheet in 53% of their recent games, Austria Vienna in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 22 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Red Bull Salzburg have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Red Bull Salzburg won 0-3 on 26 Oct 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Red Bull Salzburg have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Austria Vienna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Red Bull Salzburg
1
Draws
1
Austria Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Red Bull Salzburg and Austria Vienna?
From 10 meetings on record, Red Bull Salzburg have won 8, Austria Vienna have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Red Bull Salzburg and Austria Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 22 April 2026, when Red Bull Salzburg 3-1 Austria Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Red Bull Salzburg and Austria Vienna?
Red Bull Salzburg have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Red Bull Salzburg see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Red Bull Salzburg 41%, Austria Vienna 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Red Bull Salzburg) and 56% (Austria Vienna).
On the defensive side: Red Bull Salzburg keep a clean sheet in 59% of their matches; Austria Vienna in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Red Bull Salzburg home games / Austria Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Red Bull Salzburg play Austria Vienna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Red Bull Salzburg's recent matches and 59% of Austria Vienna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Red Bull Salzburg's recent games and 56% of Austria Vienna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Red Bull Salzburg and Austria Vienna tend to score early?
Red Bull Salzburg have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Austria Vienna in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Red Bull Salzburg and Austria Vienna share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Red Bull Salzburg and Austria Vienna finished level at 3-3 at Red Bull Arena, Championship Round - 2, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Red Bull Salzburg 1.67 xG and Austria Vienna 1.01 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Red Bull Salzburg beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Austria Vienna outscored their 1.01 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Red Bull Salzburg attack 1.12 / defence 0.72 against Austria Vienna attack 1.04 / defence 1.08, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Red Bull Salzburg 53% | Draw 24% | Austria Vienna 23%, with Red Bull Salzburg to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Red Bull Salzburg 56%, Austria Vienna 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and conceded here.
Austria Vienna's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Red Bull Salzburg arrived the stronger side — 2.51 PPG against 1.49. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Red Bull Salzburg (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.41 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.37 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.44 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.