Red Bull Salzburg 4-0 Austria Lustenau – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Red Bull Salzburg at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Lustenau encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Red Bull Salzburg and Austria Lustenau meet at Red Bull Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 11 February 2023 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Red Bull Salzburg's overall Bundesliga record this term: 7W 3D 0L from 10 games (2.40 PPG). Last five: W D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Red Bull Salzburg, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Red Bull Salzburg's home record at Red Bull Arena: 6W 4D 0L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Red Bull Arena.
Austria Lustenau (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 0.80 points per game. Last five: L D D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Austria Lustenau, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Austria Lustenau have posted 1W 3D 4L from 8 away outings — 0.75 PPG. Away from home they average 1.12 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 75% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form ledger tips toward Red Bull Salzburg. A 1.60 PPG lead over Austria Lustenau (2.40 vs 0.80) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Red Bull Salzburg, 0 for Austria Lustenau and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 6.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2022, ended 6–0 with Red Bull Salzburg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 6.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Red Bull Salzburg — key trading statistics (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time.
Austria Lustenau — key trading statistics (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Red Bull Salzburg 44% versus Austria Lustenau 69%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Red Bull Salzburg 50% | Austria Lustenau 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Red Bull Salzburg 1.65 xG and Austria Lustenau 0.88 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Red Bull Salzburg attack 0.992 / defence 0.715 | Austria Lustenau attack 0.814 / defence 1.189. League average goals — home 1.398 / away 1.520. Red Bull Salzburg's defence rating of 0.715 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 38 Red Bull Salzburg games / 16 Austria Lustenau games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Red Bull Salzburg 55% | Draw 24% | Austria Lustenau 20%. Fair-value odds: Red Bull Salzburg 1.82 | Draw 4.17 | Austria Lustenau 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Red Bull Salzburg (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Red Bull Salzburg at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.53 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Red Bull Salzburg 40% | Austria Lustenau 75%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Lustenau | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Red Bull Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Feb 2023, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Red Bull Salzburg 55% | Draw 24% | Austria Lustenau 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 47% | xG Red Bull Salzburg 1.65 / Austria Lustenau 0.88 • Poisson strength factors: Red Bull Salzburg attack 0.992 / def 0.715 | Austria Lustenau attack 0.814 / def 1.189 | league avg home 1.398 / away 1.520 • Poisson stance: Red Bull Salzburg (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
Red Bull Salzburg xG
Expected Goals
0.88
Austria Lustenau xG
47%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Lustenau kick off?
Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Lustenau kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 11 February 2023 at Red Bull Arena.
What was the final score in Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Lustenau?
Red Bull Salzburg 4 - 0 Austria Lustenau.
Where is Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Lustenau being played?
The match is being played at Red Bull Arena.
What competition is Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Lustenau part of?
Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Lustenau is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Lustenau?
Our statistical model gives Red Bull Salzburg a 55% chance of winning, Austria Lustenau a 20% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Red Bull Salzburg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Lustenau?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Red Bull Salzburg and Austria Lustenau will score (BTTS).
Will Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Lustenau have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Red Bull Salzburg and Austria Lustenau?
Record (1 meetings): Red Bull Salzburg 1W | Draws 0 | Austria Lustenau 0W.
What form are Red Bull Salzburg and Austria Lustenau in?
Red Bull Salzburg (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Austria Lustenau (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Red Bull Salzburg's attack at 0.99x the league average against Austria Lustenau's defence at 1.19x — combine the two and it projects 1.65 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Austria Lustenau's attack (0.81x) against Red Bull Salzburg's defence (0.71x) — and the away total comes out at 0.88.
These ratings are built from 38/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 2-0 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Red Bull Salzburg Win
55%
1.80
24%
4.08
20%
4.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.1%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
2 – 0
10.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
Red Bull Salzburg xG
Total xG
2.53
0.88
Austria Lustenau xG
1.80
55%
Home win
4.08
24%
Draw
4.98
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
41%
2.42
19%
5.20
Win to Nil
23%
4.37
4%
25.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 7.0 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.1 | 11.6 | 5.1 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.8 | 9.5 | 4.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 5.9 | 5.2 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.2 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Lustenau?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Red Bull Salzburg and Austria Lustenau expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for Red Bull Salzburg and 0.88 for Austria Lustenau, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Lustenau?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Red Bull Salzburg come into this having played 16 games, going 12W 3D 1L for 2.44 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-W. The sample for Red Bull Salzburg is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Austria Lustenau sit at 1.12 PPG from 16 outings (4W 6D 6L), a run that reads L-D-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Austria Lustenau is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Red Bull Salzburg carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.32 PPG clear of Austria Lustenau — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Red Bull Salzburg's home form reads 5W 3D 0L across 8 games on their own ground, a 2.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Austria Lustenau have taken 0.75 points per game from 8 outings (1W 3D 4L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Red Bull Salzburg come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Red Bull Salzburg are averaging 2.06 goals scored and 0.56 conceded per game recently; Austria Lustenau are on 1.44 scored and 1.75 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Austria Lustenau in 69%.
Defensively: Red Bull Salzburg have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 16 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Red Bull Salzburg
Blended
Austria Lustenau
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Red Bull Salzburg and Austria Lustenau in coming into this match?
Red Bull Salzburg have gone 12W 3D 1L in their last 16 games (2.44 PPG), while Austria Lustenau have gone 4W 6D 6L in their last 16 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Red Bull Salzburg at home or Austria Lustenau away?
Red Bull Salzburg's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Red Bull Salzburg at home: 2.25 PPG; Austria Lustenau away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Red Bull Salzburg or Austria Lustenau been keeping clean sheets recently?
Red Bull Salzburg have kept a clean sheet in 56% of their recent games, Austria Lustenau in 12%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since August 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 February 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Red Bull Salzburg have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Red Bull Salzburg won 7-0 on 24 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Red Bull Salzburg have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Austria Lustenau — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
4
Red Bull Salzburg
0
Draws
0
Austria Lustenau
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Red Bull Salzburg and Austria Lustenau?
From 4 meetings on record, Red Bull Salzburg have won 4, Austria Lustenau have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Red Bull Salzburg and Austria Lustenau last play each other?
They last met on 24 February 2024, when Red Bull Salzburg 7-0 Austria Lustenau.
Who has won more matches between Red Bull Salzburg and Austria Lustenau?
Red Bull Salzburg have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Red Bull Salzburg see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Austria Lustenau are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Red Bull Salzburg 38%, Austria Lustenau 75% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 25% (Red Bull Salzburg) and 50% (Austria Lustenau).
On the defensive side: Red Bull Salzburg keep a clean sheet in 62% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Red Bull Salzburg home games / Austria Lustenau away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Red Bull Salzburg play Austria Lustenau?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 38% of Red Bull Salzburg's games and 75% of Austria Lustenau's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Red Bull Salzburg vs Austria Lustenau usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Red Bull Salzburg's recent games and 50% of Austria Lustenau's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Red Bull Salzburg and Austria Lustenau tend to score early?
Red Bull Salzburg have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Austria Lustenau in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Red Bull Salzburg run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Austria Lustenau.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Red Bull Salzburg beat Austria Lustenau 4-0 at Red Bull Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Red Bull Salzburg 1.65 xG and Austria Lustenau 0.88 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Red Bull Salzburg beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Austria Lustenau landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Red Bull Salzburg attack 0.99 / defence 0.71 against Austria Lustenau attack 0.81 / defence 1.19, drawn from 38/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Red Bull Salzburg 55% | Draw 24% | Austria Lustenau 20%, with Red Bull Salzburg to win its most likely call at 55%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Red Bull Salzburg 50%, Austria Lustenau 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Red Bull Salzburg's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and duly kept one.
Austria Lustenau's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Red Bull Salzburg arrived the stronger side — 2.44 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Red Bull Salzburg (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm. Austria Lustenau (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.