Rapid Vienna 3-3 Wolfsberger AC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rapid Vienna at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Rapid Vienna face Wolfsberger AC.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Rapid Vienna and Wolfsberger AC meet at Allianz Stadion in Bundesliga (matchday 7). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 17 September 2023 at 17:00 UK time.
Current Form
Rapid Vienna's record over their last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Last five: W L W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Rapid Vienna's home record over their last 10 home games: 4W 4D 2L (1.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Wolfsberger AC (all games): 4W 3D 3L across their last 10 — 1.50 points per game. Last five: D D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling, Wolfsberger AC have posted 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.20 PPG for Rapid Vienna against 1.50 for Wolfsberger AC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
Rapid Vienna half-time and goal-timing data (last 38 games, 18 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 10 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Wolfsberger AC half-time and goal-timing data (last 38 games, 18 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 8 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rapid Vienna 60% and Wolfsberger AC 68% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rapid Vienna 55% | Wolfsberger AC 74%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Rapid Vienna surrender their half-time lead 30% of the time, while Wolfsberger AC have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rapid Vienna 1.30 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rapid Vienna attack 1.089 / defence 0.792 | Wolfsberger AC attack 0.857 / defence 0.926. League average goals — home 1.287 / away 1.577. Rapid Vienna have a tight defence (rating 0.792), which is pulling Wolfsberger AC's projected output down. Data: built from Rapid Vienna's last 28 games and Wolfsberger AC's last 28.
Result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 38% | Draw 35% | Wolfsberger AC 27%. Fair-value odds: Rapid Vienna 2.64 | Draw 2.82 | Wolfsberger AC 3.74. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Rapid Vienna as the most likely outcome at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rapid Vienna if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.37 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 58% probability — low conviction — though recent form (Rapid Vienna's last 10 home games and Wolfsberger AC's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game points the other way.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Rapid Vienna 70% (last 10 home games) | Wolfsberger AC 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rapid Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 7 | Venue: Allianz Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 17 September 2023 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 38% | Draw 35% | Wolfsberger AC 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% (Under 58%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Rapid Vienna 1.30 / Wolfsberger AC 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Rapid Vienna attack 1.089 / def 0.792 | Wolfsberger AC attack 0.857 / def 0.926 | league avg home 1.287 / away 1.577 • Poisson stance: Rapid Vienna (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Rapid Vienna xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Wolfsberger AC xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Rapid Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC FAQs
What time does Rapid Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC kick off?
Rapid Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Sunday 17 September 2023 at Allianz Stadion.
What was the final score in Rapid Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC?
Rapid Vienna 3 - 3 Wolfsberger AC.
Where is Rapid Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Stadion.
What competition is Rapid Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC part of?
Rapid Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 7) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Rapid Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our statistical model gives Rapid Vienna a 38% chance of winning, Wolfsberger AC a 27% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Rapid Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rapid Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Rapid Vienna and Wolfsberger AC will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Rapid Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (58%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Rapid Vienna's attacking strength (1.09x league average) is weighed against Wolfsberger AC's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.30. Flip it around — Wolfsberger AC's attack (0.86x) against Rapid Vienna's defence (0.79x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from Rapid Vienna's last 28 games and Wolfsberger AC's last 28 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.0%), 1-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rapid Vienna Win
38%
2.64
35%
2.82
27%
3.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.1%
Home win
0 – 1
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Rapid Vienna xG
Total xG
2.37
1.07
Wolfsberger AC xG
2.64
38%
Home win
2.82
35%
Draw
3.74
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
27%
3.66
Win to Nil
13%
7.72
7%
13.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 10.0 | 5.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.0 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.4 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.7 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Rapid Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Rapid Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Rapid Vienna and Wolfsberger AC expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Rapid Vienna and 1.07 for Wolfsberger AC, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for Rapid Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rapid Vienna come into this having played 38 games, going 14W 8D 16L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-L.
On the other side, Wolfsberger AC sit at 1.24 PPG from 38 outings (13W 8D 17L), a run that reads D-D-D-L-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.32 PPG for Rapid Vienna against 1.24 for Wolfsberger AC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Rapid Vienna's home form reads 7W 5D 6L across their last 18 home games, a 1.44 PPG return.
Away from home, Wolfsberger AC have taken 1.72 points per game from their last 18 away games (9W 4D 5L). That's actually stronger than their 1.24 PPG overall record — Wolfsberger AC travel well.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rapid Vienna are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.37 conceded per game recently; Wolfsberger AC are on 1.50 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rapid Vienna have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Wolfsberger AC in 68%.
Last 38 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rapid Vienna
Early Season
Wolfsberger AC
Early Season
Rapid Vienna (Home) vs Wolfsberger AC (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Rapid Vienna
Early Season
Wolfsberger AC
Early Season
❓ Rapid Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC Form FAQs
What form are Rapid Vienna and Wolfsberger AC in coming into this match?
Rapid Vienna have gone 14W 8D 16L in their last 38 games (1.32 PPG), while Wolfsberger AC have gone 13W 8D 17L in their last 38 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rapid Vienna at home or Wolfsberger AC away?
Wolfsberger AC's away record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rapid Vienna at home: 1.44 PPG; Wolfsberger AC away: 1.72 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to September 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 6 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
Rapid Vienna have won each of the latest 4 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rapid Vienna won Rapid Vienna 6-0 Wolfsberger AC on 6 Nov 2026, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rapid Vienna have gone 2W 1D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Wolfsberger AC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Rapid Vienna
2
Draws
3
Wolfsberger AC
Recent Meetings
❓ Rapid Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Rapid Vienna and Wolfsberger AC?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Rapid Vienna have won 5, Wolfsberger AC have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rapid Vienna and Wolfsberger AC last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 6 November 2026: Rapid Vienna 6-0 Wolfsberger AC.
Who has won more matches between Rapid Vienna and Wolfsberger AC?
Rapid Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 57% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rapid Vienna 67%, Wolfsberger AC 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 56% for Rapid Vienna and 72% for Wolfsberger AC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 50% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Wolfsberger AC in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rapid Vienna home games / Wolfsberger AC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Rapid Vienna vs Wolfsberger AC Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Rapid Vienna and Wolfsberger AC matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Rapid Vienna's games and 61% of Wolfsberger AC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Rapid Vienna and Wolfsberger AC matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Rapid Vienna's matches and 72% of Wolfsberger AC's.
Do Rapid Vienna and Wolfsberger AC matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Rapid Vienna's recent matches and 83% of Wolfsberger AC's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rapid Vienna and Wolfsberger AC share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rapid Vienna and Wolfsberger AC finished level at 3-3 at Allianz Stadion, Regular Season - 7, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rapid Vienna 1.30 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.07 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Rapid Vienna beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Wolfsberger AC outscored their 1.07 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rapid Vienna attack 1.09 / defence 0.79 against Wolfsberger AC attack 0.86 / defence 0.93, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rapid Vienna 38% | Draw 35% | Wolfsberger AC 27%, with Rapid Vienna to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rapid Vienna 55%, Wolfsberger AC 74%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (38 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did.
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (38 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rapid Vienna 1.32 PPG, Wolfsberger AC 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Rapid Vienna (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.83 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.72 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.33 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.