Rapid Vienna 1-1 Sturm Graz – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Rapid Vienna at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Sturm Graz make the trip to Allianz Stadion to face Rapid Vienna in Bundesliga, Championship Round - 6. The match kicks off on Sunday 24 April 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Rapid Vienna (all games): 5W 2D 3L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Rapid Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rapid Vienna at Allianz Stadion this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Sturm Graz have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: L W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Sturm Graz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Sturm Graz have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 2.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
Rapid Vienna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (home games).
Sturm Graz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (27 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 69% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 48%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rapid Vienna 70% and Sturm Graz 63% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Rapid Vienna 63% | Sturm Graz 74%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rapid Vienna 1.61 xG and Sturm Graz 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rapid Vienna attack 1.138 / defence 1.117 | Sturm Graz attack 1.055 / defence 1.230. League average goals — home 1.150 / away 1.238. Sturm Graz bring a strong defensive rating of 1.230 — this is suppressing Rapid Vienna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Rapid Vienna games / 22 Sturm Graz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 41% | Draw 24% | Sturm Graz 35%. Fair-value odds: Rapid Vienna 2.44 | Draw 4.17 | Sturm Graz 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 61% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% reflects that both xG figures (1.61 / 1.46) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Rapid Vienna as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rapid Vienna if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.07 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 61%. Form rates corroborate: Rapid Vienna 70% | Sturm Graz 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz | Competition: Bundesliga, Championship Round - 6 | Venue: Allianz Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 24 Apr 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 41% | Draw 24% | Sturm Graz 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 61% | xG Rapid Vienna 1.61 / Sturm Graz 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Rapid Vienna attack 1.138 / def 1.117 | Sturm Graz attack 1.055 / def 1.230 | league avg home 1.150 / away 1.238 • Poisson stance: Rapid Vienna (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.61
Rapid Vienna xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Sturm Graz xG
61%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz kick off?
Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 24 April 2022 at Allianz Stadion.
What was the final score in Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz?
Rapid Vienna 1 - 1 Sturm Graz.
Where is Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Stadion.
What competition is Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz part of?
Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz is a Championship Round - 6 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz?
Our statistical model gives Rapid Vienna a 41% chance of winning, Sturm Graz a 35% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Rapid Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Rapid Vienna and Sturm Graz will score (BTTS).
Will Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rapid Vienna and Sturm Graz?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rapid Vienna and Sturm Graz in?
Rapid Vienna (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Sturm Graz (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Rapid Vienna's attack at 1.14x the league average against Sturm Graz's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 1.61 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sturm Graz's attack (1.05x) against Rapid Vienna's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.46.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Rapid Vienna Win
41%
2.42
24%
4.18
35%
2.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.9%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.61
Rapid Vienna xG
Total xG
3.07
1.46
Sturm Graz xG
2.42
41%
Home win
4.18
24%
Draw
2.88
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
23%
4.30
20%
5.01
Win to Nil
10%
10.39
7%
14.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 6.8 | 4.9 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 10.9 | 8.0 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 6.0 | 8.8 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 4.7 | 3.4 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.9 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Rapid Vienna and Sturm Graz expected to score?
The model projects 1.61 expected goals for Rapid Vienna and 1.46 for Sturm Graz, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rapid Vienna's recent record stands at 10W 8D 9L from 27 games, a 1.41 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Rapid Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Sturm Graz, meanwhile, have gone 14W 7D 6L across 27 games — 1.81 PPG, with L-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for Sturm Graz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sturm Graz by 0.40 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Rapid Vienna heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Rapid Vienna have managed 7W 2D 4L from 13 games — 1.77 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sturm Graz's away record stands at 6W 3D 4L across 13 trips, a 1.62 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rapid Vienna are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Sturm Graz are on 2.00 scored and 1.30 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rapid Vienna have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; Sturm Graz in 63%.
Last 27 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rapid Vienna
Blended
Sturm Graz
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rapid Vienna and Sturm Graz in coming into this match?
Rapid Vienna have gone 10W 8D 9L in their last 27 games (1.41 PPG), while Sturm Graz have gone 14W 7D 6L in their last 27 (1.81 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rapid Vienna at home or Sturm Graz away?
Rapid Vienna's home record (1.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rapid Vienna at home: 1.77 PPG; Sturm Graz away: 1.62 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Sturm Graz have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rapid Vienna have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sturm Graz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Rapid Vienna
1
Draws
5
Sturm Graz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rapid Vienna and Sturm Graz?
From 10 meetings on record, Rapid Vienna have won 4, Sturm Graz have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Rapid Vienna and Sturm Graz last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Sturm Graz 2-0 Rapid Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Rapid Vienna and Sturm Graz?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rapid Vienna 54%, Sturm Graz 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 69% for Rapid Vienna and 69% for Sturm Graz. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 15% and 46% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rapid Vienna keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Sturm Graz in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rapid Vienna home games / Sturm Graz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rapid Vienna play Sturm Graz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Rapid Vienna's games and 62% of Sturm Graz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Rapid Vienna vs Sturm Graz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 69% of Rapid Vienna's matches and 69% of Sturm Graz's.
Do Rapid Vienna and Sturm Graz tend to score early?
Rapid Vienna have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Sturm Graz in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rapid Vienna and Sturm Graz share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Allianz Stadion, Championship Round - 6, as Rapid Vienna and Sturm Graz drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rapid Vienna 1.61 xG and Sturm Graz 1.46 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rapid Vienna attack 1.14 / defence 1.12 against Sturm Graz attack 1.05 / defence 1.23, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rapid Vienna 41% | Draw 24% | Sturm Graz 35%, with Rapid Vienna to win its most likely call at 41%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 61% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rapid Vienna 63%, Sturm Graz 74%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Sturm Graz's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.41. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Rapid Vienna (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.92 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.