Rapid Vienna 1-1 Lask Linz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Rapid Vienna at 53% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Rapid Vienna vs Lask Linz encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Rapid Vienna host Lask Linz at Allianz Stadion in Bundesliga (matchday 8). Kick-off is Saturday 28 September 2024 at 17:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Rapid Vienna — last 10 games: 6W 2D 2L, averaging 2.00 points per game. Last five: W L W D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Rapid Vienna at home: 5W 3D 2L from their last 10 home games — 1.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across their last 10 games, Lask Linz have recorded 3W 1D 6L — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 2.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.30 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Lask Linz's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 3D 4L (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Rapid Vienna are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.00 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 0 wins for Rapid Vienna, 1 for Lask Linz and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 1 H2H match in our data averaged 5.0 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 28 Apr 2024, ended Rapid Vienna 0–5 Lask Linz — a Lask Linz win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 5.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Rapid Vienna in-play and half-time data (last 39 games, 19 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 74% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Lask Linz in-play and half-time data (last 39 games, 19 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 79% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 44% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rapid Vienna 44% versus Lask Linz 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rapid Vienna 38% | Lask Linz 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rapid Vienna 1.68 xG and Lask Linz 0.99 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rapid Vienna attack 1.164 / defence 0.884 | Lask Linz attack 0.942 / defence 0.893. League average goals — home 1.615 / away 1.195. Data: built from Rapid Vienna's last 29 games and Lask Linz's last 29.
Result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 53% | Draw 25% | Lask Linz 22%. Fair-value odds: Rapid Vienna 1.88 | Draw 4.03 | Lask Linz 4.53. Rapid Vienna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Rapid Vienna at 53% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Rapid Vienna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Rapid Vienna 50% (last 10 home games) | Lask Linz 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rapid Vienna vs Lask Linz | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 8 | Venue: Allianz Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 28 September 2024 at 17:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 53% | Draw 25% | Lask Linz 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG Rapid Vienna 1.68 / Lask Linz 0.99 • Poisson strength factors: Rapid Vienna attack 1.164 / def 0.884 | Lask Linz attack 0.942 / def 0.893 | league avg home 1.615 / away 1.195 • Poisson stance: Rapid Vienna (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.68
Rapid Vienna xG
Expected Goals
0.99
Lask Linz xG
52%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Rapid Vienna vs Lask Linz FAQs
What time does Rapid Vienna vs Lask Linz kick off?
Rapid Vienna vs Lask Linz kicked off at 17:00 UK time on Saturday 28 September 2024 at Allianz Stadion.
What was the final score in Rapid Vienna vs Lask Linz?
Rapid Vienna 1 - 1 Lask Linz.
Where is Rapid Vienna vs Lask Linz being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Stadion.
What competition is Rapid Vienna vs Lask Linz part of?
Rapid Vienna vs Lask Linz is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 8) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Rapid Vienna vs Lask Linz?
Our statistical model gives Rapid Vienna a 53% chance of winning, Lask Linz a 22% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Rapid Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rapid Vienna vs Lask Linz?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Rapid Vienna and Lask Linz will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Rapid Vienna vs Lask Linz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Rapid Vienna's attacking strength (1.16x league average) is weighed against Lask Linz's defensive record (0.89x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.68. The same calculation in reverse, Lask Linz's attack versus Rapid Vienna's defence, projects 0.99 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Rapid Vienna's last 29 games and Lask Linz's last 29 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 2-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rapid Vienna Win
53%
1.88
25%
4.03
22%
4.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
2 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.68
Rapid Vienna xG
Total xG
2.67
0.99
Lask Linz xG
1.88
53%
Home win
4.03
25%
Draw
4.53
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
37%
2.70
19%
5.35
Win to Nil
20%
5.09
4%
24.25
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 6.9 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 11.5 | 5.7 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.7 | 9.7 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.4 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Rapid Vienna vs Lask Linz Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Rapid Vienna vs Lask Linz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Rapid Vienna and Lask Linz expected to score?
The model projects 1.68 expected goals for Rapid Vienna and 0.99 for Lask Linz, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Rapid Vienna vs Lask Linz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Rapid Vienna come into this having played 39 games, going 15W 14D 10L for 1.51 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-W.
On the other side, Lask Linz sit at 1.49 PPG from 39 outings (16W 10D 13L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Rapid Vienna on 1.51 PPG, Lask Linz on 1.49. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Rapid Vienna's home form reads 7W 7D 5L across their last 19 home games, a 1.47 PPG return.
Away from home, Lask Linz have taken 1.26 points per game from their last 19 away games (6W 6D 7L).
The Goals Picture
Rapid Vienna are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Lask Linz are on 1.33 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Defensively: Rapid Vienna have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Lask Linz in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rapid Vienna
Early Season
Lask Linz
Early Season
Rapid Vienna (Home) vs Lask Linz (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Rapid Vienna
Early Season
Lask Linz
Early Season
❓ Rapid Vienna vs Lask Linz Form FAQs
What form are Rapid Vienna and Lask Linz in coming into this match?
Rapid Vienna have gone 15W 14D 10L in their last 39 games (1.51 PPG), while Lask Linz have gone 16W 10D 13L in their last 39 (1.49 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rapid Vienna at home or Lask Linz away?
Rapid Vienna's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rapid Vienna at home: 1.47 PPG; Lask Linz away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Rapid Vienna or Lask Linz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Rapid Vienna have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Lask Linz in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 10 H2H matches in our data, going back to April 2024. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 11 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 28 Apr 2024, when Lask Linz won Lask Linz 5-0 Rapid Vienna.
Rapid Vienna's record when hosting Lask Linz specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Rapid Vienna
1
Draws
6
Lask Linz
Recent Meetings
❓ Rapid Vienna vs Lask Linz H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Rapid Vienna and Lask Linz?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Rapid Vienna have won 3, Lask Linz have won 6, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Rapid Vienna and Lask Linz last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 11 October 2026: Lask Linz 0-2 Rapid Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Rapid Vienna and Lask Linz?
Lask Linz have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 50% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Lask Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rapid Vienna 53%, Lask Linz 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Rapid Vienna) and 42% (Lask Linz).
On the defensive side: Rapid Vienna keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Lask Linz in 32%; Lask Linz in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rapid Vienna home games / Lask Linz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Rapid Vienna vs Lask Linz Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Rapid Vienna and Lask Linz matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Rapid Vienna's recent matches and 47% of Lask Linz's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Rapid Vienna and Lask Linz matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Rapid Vienna's recent games and 42% of Lask Linz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Rapid Vienna and Lask Linz matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 74% of Rapid Vienna's recent matches and 79% of Lask Linz's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rapid Vienna and Lask Linz share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rapid Vienna and Lask Linz finished level at 1-1 at Allianz Stadion, Regular Season - 8, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rapid Vienna 1.68 xG and Lask Linz 0.99 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rapid Vienna attack 1.16 / defence 0.88 against Lask Linz attack 0.94 / defence 0.89, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rapid Vienna 53% | Draw 25% | Lask Linz 22%, with Rapid Vienna to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 25% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rapid Vienna 38%, Lask Linz 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (39 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Lask Linz's trading profile (39 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rapid Vienna 1.51 PPG, Lask Linz 1.49 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.