Rapid Vienna 1-1 Austria Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Rapid Vienna at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Rapid Vienna vs Austria Vienna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Austria Vienna make the trip to Allianz Stadion to face Rapid Vienna in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17. The match kicks off on Sunday 5 December 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Current Form
Rapid Vienna's overall Bundesliga record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.90 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Rapid Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Rapid Vienna's home record at Allianz Stadion: 5W 0D 3L from 8 Bundesliga appearances (1.88 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.88 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Rapid Vienna are significantly better at Allianz Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Austria Vienna (all games): 4W 4D 2L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 1.60 points per game. Last five: W D L D W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Austria Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Austria Vienna's away record: 2W 3D 3L from 8 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.12 PPG). Away from home they average 1.25 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
Rapid Vienna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; when winning at HT they fail to see it out 25% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games).
Austria Vienna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 38% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Rapid Vienna 62% and Austria Vienna 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rapid Vienna 56% | Austria Vienna 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rapid Vienna 1.36 xG and Austria Vienna 1.26 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rapid Vienna attack 1.149 / defence 1.206 | Austria Vienna attack 0.804 / defence 1.001. League average goals — home 1.179 / away 1.299. Data: 16 Rapid Vienna games / 16 Austria Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 39% | Draw 26% | Austria Vienna 35%. Fair-value odds: Rapid Vienna 2.56 | Draw 3.85 | Austria Vienna 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rapid Vienna are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rapid Vienna if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.62 combined xG gives a 49% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Rapid Vienna 38% | Austria Vienna 50%.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rapid Vienna vs Austria Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Allianz Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Dec 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 39% | Draw 26% | Austria Vienna 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 53% | xG Rapid Vienna 1.36 / Austria Vienna 1.26 • Poisson strength factors: Rapid Vienna attack 1.149 / def 1.206 | Austria Vienna attack 0.804 / def 1.001 | league avg home 1.179 / away 1.299 • Poisson stance: Rapid Vienna (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.36
Rapid Vienna xG
Expected Goals
1.26
Austria Vienna xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Rapid Vienna vs Austria Vienna kick off?
Rapid Vienna vs Austria Vienna kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 5 December 2021 at Allianz Stadion.
What was the final score in Rapid Vienna vs Austria Vienna?
Rapid Vienna 1 - 1 Austria Vienna.
Where is Rapid Vienna vs Austria Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Stadion.
What competition is Rapid Vienna vs Austria Vienna part of?
Rapid Vienna vs Austria Vienna is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Rapid Vienna vs Austria Vienna?
Our statistical model gives Rapid Vienna a 39% chance of winning, Austria Vienna a 35% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Rapid Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rapid Vienna vs Austria Vienna?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Rapid Vienna and Austria Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will Rapid Vienna vs Austria Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Rapid Vienna and Austria Vienna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Rapid Vienna and Austria Vienna in?
Rapid Vienna (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-W-L-W-D. Austria Vienna (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Rapid Vienna's attack at 1.15x the league average against Austria Vienna's defence at 1.00x — combine the two and it projects 1.36 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Austria Vienna's attack (0.80x) against Rapid Vienna's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.26.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (8.9%), 2-1 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rapid Vienna Win
39%
2.56
26%
3.79
35%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.36
Rapid Vienna xG
Total xG
2.62
1.26
Austria Vienna xG
2.56
39%
Home win
3.79
26%
Draw
2.90
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
28%
3.52
26%
3.88
Win to Nil
11%
9.01
9%
11.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 9.2 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.9 | 12.5 | 7.9 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 8.5 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Rapid Vienna vs Austria Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Rapid Vienna and Austria Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.36 expected goals for Rapid Vienna and 1.26 for Austria Vienna, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Rapid Vienna vs Austria Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rapid Vienna come into this having played 16 games, going 5W 5D 6L for 1.25 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-W-D. The sample for Rapid Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Austria Vienna sit at 1.25 PPG from 16 outings (4W 8D 4L), a run that reads W-D-L-D-W across their last five. The sample for Austria Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.25 PPG for Rapid Vienna against 1.25 for Austria Vienna. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Rapid Vienna's home form reads 5W 0D 3L across 8 games on their own ground, a 1.88 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.25 PPG overall — Rapid Vienna are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Austria Vienna have taken 1.12 points per game from 8 outings (2W 3D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Rapid Vienna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rapid Vienna are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.56 conceded per game recently; Austria Vienna are on 1.31 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rapid Vienna have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Austria Vienna in 62%.
Last 16 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rapid Vienna
Blended
Austria Vienna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Rapid Vienna and Austria Vienna in coming into this match?
Rapid Vienna have gone 5W 5D 6L in their last 16 games (1.25 PPG), while Austria Vienna have gone 4W 8D 4L in their last 16 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rapid Vienna at home or Austria Vienna away?
Rapid Vienna's home record (1.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rapid Vienna at home: 1.88 PPG; Austria Vienna away: 1.12 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rapid Vienna won 3-0 on 25 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rapid Vienna have gone 3W 0D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Austria Vienna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Rapid Vienna
2
Draws
4
Austria Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Rapid Vienna and Austria Vienna?
From 10 meetings on record, Rapid Vienna have won 4, Austria Vienna have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Rapid Vienna and Austria Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Rapid Vienna 0-2 Austria Vienna.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Austria Vienna see a goal before the break in 38% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rapid Vienna 38%, Austria Vienna 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Rapid Vienna) and 38% (Austria Vienna). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Rapid Vienna keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Austria Vienna in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rapid Vienna home games / Austria Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Rapid Vienna play Austria Vienna?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 38% of Rapid Vienna's recent matches and 50% of Austria Vienna's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Rapid Vienna vs Austria Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Rapid Vienna's matches and 38% of Austria Vienna's.
Do Rapid Vienna and Austria Vienna tend to score early?
Rapid Vienna have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Austria Vienna in 38% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Rapid Vienna and Austria Vienna share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rapid Vienna and Austria Vienna finished level at 1-1 at Allianz Stadion, Regular Season - 17, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rapid Vienna 1.36 xG and Austria Vienna 1.26 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rapid Vienna attack 1.15 / defence 1.21 against Austria Vienna attack 0.80 / defence 1.00, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rapid Vienna 39% | Draw 26% | Austria Vienna 35%, with Rapid Vienna to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rapid Vienna 56%, Austria Vienna 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Austria Vienna's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rapid Vienna 1.25 PPG, Austria Vienna 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Rapid Vienna (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.