Rapid Vienna 3-0 Austria Vienna – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Rapid Vienna at 39% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Rapid Vienna face Austria Vienna.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Austria Vienna make the trip to Allianz Stadion to face Rapid Vienna in Bundesliga (matchday 20). The match kicks off on Sunday 25 February 2024 at 16:00 UK time.
Current Form
Rapid Vienna's record over their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Rapid Vienna's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 4D 3L (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Austria Vienna (all games): 6W 3D 1L across their last 10 — 2.10 points per game. Last five: L D D W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.50. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Austria Vienna's away record over their last 10 away games: 3W 2D 5L (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 2.10 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Trading Data
Rapid Vienna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 51 games, 25 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Austria Vienna goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 51 games, 25 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 13 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 38%; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Rapid Vienna 57% versus Austria Vienna 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Rapid Vienna 51% | Austria Vienna 65%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Rapid Vienna surrender their half-time lead 36% of the time, while Austria Vienna have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 38% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Rapid Vienna 1.35 xG and Austria Vienna 1.23 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Rapid Vienna attack 1.054 / defence 1.090 | Austria Vienna attack 0.966 / defence 0.963. League average goals — home 1.332 / away 1.167. Data: built from Rapid Vienna's last 41 games and Austria Vienna's last 41.
Result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 39% | Draw 28% | Austria Vienna 33%. Fair-value odds: Rapid Vienna 2.57 | Draw 3.58 | Austria Vienna 3.02. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS Yes probability 53% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 53% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Rapid Vienna are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Rapid Vienna if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.58 combined xG gives a 52% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Rapid Vienna 60% (last 10 home games) | Austria Vienna 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Rapid Vienna vs Austria Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 20 | Venue: Allianz Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 25 February 2024 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Rapid Vienna 39% | Draw 28% | Austria Vienna 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% (Under 52%) | BTTS Yes 53% (No 47%) | xG Rapid Vienna 1.35 / Austria Vienna 1.23 • Poisson strength factors: Rapid Vienna attack 1.054 / def 1.090 | Austria Vienna attack 0.966 / def 0.963 | league avg home 1.332 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: Rapid Vienna (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.35
Rapid Vienna xG
Expected Goals
1.23
Austria Vienna xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Rapid Vienna vs Austria Vienna FAQs
What time does Rapid Vienna vs Austria Vienna kick off?
Rapid Vienna vs Austria Vienna kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 25 February 2024 at Allianz Stadion.
What was the final score in Rapid Vienna vs Austria Vienna?
Rapid Vienna 3 - 0 Austria Vienna.
Where is Rapid Vienna vs Austria Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Stadion.
What competition is Rapid Vienna vs Austria Vienna part of?
Rapid Vienna vs Austria Vienna is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 20) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Rapid Vienna vs Austria Vienna?
Our statistical model gives Rapid Vienna a 39% chance of winning, Austria Vienna a 33% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Rapid Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Rapid Vienna vs Austria Vienna?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Rapid Vienna and Austria Vienna will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Rapid Vienna vs Austria Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (52%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Rapid Vienna's attack at 1.05x the league average against Austria Vienna's defence at 0.96x — combine the two and it projects 1.35 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Austria Vienna's attack (0.97x) against Rapid Vienna's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 1.23.
These ratings are built from Rapid Vienna's last 41 games and Austria Vienna's last 41 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (9.2%), 1-0 (8.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Rapid Vienna Win
39%
2.57
28%
3.58
33%
3.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.2%
Home win
0 – 1
9.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.35
Rapid Vienna xG
Total xG
2.58
1.23
Austria Vienna xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
3.02
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.88
47%
BTTS No
2.14
Clean Sheet
29%
3.42
26%
3.87
Win to Nil
11%
8.78
9%
11.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 9.3 | 5.7 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 10.2 | 12.6 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.5 | 5.2 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.8 | 2.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Rapid Vienna vs Austria Vienna Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Rapid Vienna vs Austria Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Rapid Vienna and Austria Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.35 expected goals for Rapid Vienna and 1.23 for Austria Vienna, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Rapid Vienna vs Austria Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Rapid Vienna come into this having played 51 games, going 19W 13D 19L for 1.37 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-D.
On the other side, Austria Vienna sit at 1.43 PPG from 51 outings (19W 16D 16L), a run that reads L-D-D-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.37 PPG for Rapid Vienna against 1.43 for Austria Vienna. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Rapid Vienna's home form reads 9W 8D 8L across their last 25 home games, a 1.40 PPG return.
Away from home, Austria Vienna have taken 1.16 points per game from their last 25 away games (7W 8D 10L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Rapid Vienna are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 1.29 conceded per game recently; Austria Vienna are on 1.59 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Rapid Vienna
Blended
Austria Vienna
Blended
Rapid Vienna (Home) vs Austria Vienna (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Rapid Vienna
Blended
Austria Vienna
Blended
❓ Rapid Vienna vs Austria Vienna Form FAQs
What form are Rapid Vienna and Austria Vienna in coming into this match?
Rapid Vienna have gone 19W 13D 19L in their last 51 games (1.37 PPG), while Austria Vienna have gone 19W 16D 16L in their last 51 (1.43 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Rapid Vienna at home or Austria Vienna away?
Rapid Vienna's home record (1.40 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Rapid Vienna at home: 1.40 PPG; Austria Vienna away: 1.16 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 10 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to February 2024 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 1 November 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rapid Vienna won Rapid Vienna 3-0 Austria Vienna on 25 Feb 2024, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Rapid Vienna have gone 3W 0D 2L from the 5 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Austria Vienna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Rapid Vienna
1
Draws
4
Austria Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Rapid Vienna vs Austria Vienna H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Rapid Vienna and Austria Vienna?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Rapid Vienna have won 5, Austria Vienna have won 4, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Rapid Vienna and Austria Vienna last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 November 2026: Austria Vienna 0-2 Rapid Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Rapid Vienna and Austria Vienna?
Rapid Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 57% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Rapid Vienna 64%, Austria Vienna 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Rapid Vienna) and 60% (Austria Vienna). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Rapid Vienna home games / Austria Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Rapid Vienna vs Austria Vienna Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Rapid Vienna and Austria Vienna matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Rapid Vienna's games and 64% of Austria Vienna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Rapid Vienna and Austria Vienna matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 52% of Rapid Vienna's matches and 60% of Austria Vienna's.
Do Rapid Vienna and Austria Vienna matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 80% of Rapid Vienna's recent matches and 80% of Austria Vienna's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Rapid Vienna run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Austria Vienna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Rapid Vienna beat Austria Vienna 3-0 at Allianz Stadion, Regular Season - 20, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Rapid Vienna 1.35 xG and Austria Vienna 1.23 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Rapid Vienna beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Austria Vienna landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Rapid Vienna attack 1.05 / defence 1.09 against Austria Vienna attack 0.97 / defence 0.96, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Rapid Vienna 39% | Draw 28% | Austria Vienna 33%, with Rapid Vienna to win its most likely call at 39%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Rapid Vienna 51%, Austria Vienna 65%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Austria Vienna's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Rapid Vienna 1.37 PPG, Austria Vienna 1.43 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Rapid Vienna win broke the near-deadlock. Rapid Vienna (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.76 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line. Austria Vienna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.