Lask Linz 3-1 Sturm Graz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lask Linz at 36% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Lask Linz face Sturm Graz.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lask Linz host Sturm Graz at Raiffeisen Arena in Bundesliga (matchday 13). Kick-off is Sunday 5 November 2023 at 16:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Lask Linz have gone 6W 3D 1L — a 2.10 PPG return. Last five: D L W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home, Lask Linz have gone 7W 2D 1L in their last 10 home games (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Sturm Graz — last 10 games: 6W 3D 1L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Sturm Graz's away record over their last 10 away games: 6W 1D 3L (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Lask Linz at 2.10 PPG versus Sturm Graz's 2.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Lask Linz in-play tendencies (last 44 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 48% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 10 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 50%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Sturm Graz in-play tendencies (last 44 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 80%; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lask Linz 61% versus Sturm Graz 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lask Linz 43% | Sturm Graz 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lask Linz 0.98 xG and Sturm Graz 0.87 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lask Linz attack 1.008 / defence 0.604 | Sturm Graz attack 1.066 / defence 0.796. League average goals — home 1.224 / away 1.354. Sturm Graz bring a tight defence (rating 0.796, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling Lask Linz's projected output down. Lask Linz have a tight defence (rating 0.604), which is pulling Sturm Graz's projected output down. Data: built from Lask Linz's last 34 games and Sturm Graz's last 34.
Result probabilities: Lask Linz 36% | Draw 35% | Sturm Graz 30%. Fair-value odds: Lask Linz 2.81 | Draw 2.88 | Sturm Graz 3.37. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS Yes probability 38% | Total xG 1.85. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.85 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 62% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lask Linz at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 35% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lask Linz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.85 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 72% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 62%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Lask Linz 30% (last 10 home games) | Sturm Graz 70% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 13 | Venue: Raiffeisen Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 5 November 2023 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lask Linz 36% | Draw 35% | Sturm Graz 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% (Under 72%) | BTTS Yes 38% (No 62%) | xG Lask Linz 0.98 / Sturm Graz 0.87 • Poisson strength factors: Lask Linz attack 1.008 / def 0.604 | Sturm Graz attack 1.066 / def 0.796 | league avg home 1.224 / away 1.354 • Poisson stance: Lask Linz (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Lask Linz xG
Expected Goals
0.87
Sturm Graz xG
38%
BTTS
57%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz FAQs
What time does Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz kick off?
Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 5 November 2023 at Raiffeisen Arena.
What was the final score in Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz?
Lask Linz 3 - 1 Sturm Graz.
Where is Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz being played?
The match is being played at Raiffeisen Arena.
What competition is Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz part of?
Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 13) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz?
Our statistical model gives Lask Linz a 36% chance of winning, Sturm Graz a 30% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making Lask Linz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Lask Linz and Sturm Graz will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (62%).
Will Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (72%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lask Linz's attack at 1.01x the league average against Sturm Graz's defence at 0.80x — combine the two and it projects 0.98 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Sturm Graz's attack versus Lask Linz's defence, projects 0.87 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Lask Linz's last 34 games and Sturm Graz's last 34 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.2%), 1-0 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lask Linz Win
36%
2.81
35%
2.88
30%
3.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
15.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
0 – 1
13.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Lask Linz xG
Total xG
1.85
0.87
Sturm Graz xG
2.81
36%
Home win
2.88
35%
Draw
3.37
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.65
62%
BTTS No
1.60
Clean Sheet
42%
2.39
37%
2.67
Win to Nil
15%
6.72
11%
9.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.7 | 13.7 | 6.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.4 | 13.4 | 5.8 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 6.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.5 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.4%.
How many goals are Lask Linz and Sturm Graz expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Lask Linz and 0.87 for Sturm Graz, a combined total of 1.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 44 outings, Lask Linz have picked up 1.73 PPG on a 20W 16D 8L record — D-L-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Sturm Graz's form line: 28W 9D 7L from 44 games, 2.11 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lask Linz on 1.73 PPG, Sturm Graz on 2.11. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Lask Linz have posted 1.95 PPG from their last 21 home games (12W 5D 4L).
On the road, Sturm Graz have gone 12W 6D 3L from their last 21 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Lask Linz are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 1.09 conceded per game recently; Sturm Graz are on 1.75 scored and 0.84 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lask Linz have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Sturm Graz in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lask Linz
Blended
Sturm Graz
Blended
Lask Linz (Home) vs Sturm Graz (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Lask Linz
Blended
Sturm Graz
Blended
❓ Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz Form FAQs
What form are Lask Linz and Sturm Graz in coming into this match?
Lask Linz have gone 20W 16D 8L in their last 44 games (1.73 PPG), while Sturm Graz have gone 28W 9D 7L in their last 44 (2.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lask Linz at home or Sturm Graz away?
Sturm Graz's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lask Linz at home: 1.95 PPG; Sturm Graz away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Lask Linz or Sturm Graz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lask Linz have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, Sturm Graz in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from November 2023. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 13 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Lask Linz's record when hosting Sturm Graz specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Lask Linz
3
Draws
5
Sturm Graz
Recent Meetings
❓ Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and Sturm Graz?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Lask Linz have won 2, Sturm Graz have won 5, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lask Linz and Sturm Graz last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 13 September 2026: Sturm Graz 2-1 Lask Linz.
Who has won more matches between Lask Linz and Sturm Graz?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lask Linz see a goal before the break in 48% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 29% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 100% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lask Linz 52%, Sturm Graz 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Lask Linz) and 48% (Sturm Graz).
On the defensive side: Lask Linz keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Sturm Graz in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lask Linz home games / Sturm Graz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Lask Linz vs Sturm Graz Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Lask Linz and Sturm Graz matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 52% of Lask Linz's games and 62% of Sturm Graz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Lask Linz and Sturm Graz matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Lask Linz's recent games and 48% of Sturm Graz's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lask Linz and Sturm Graz matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 48% of Lask Linz's recent matches and 62% of Sturm Graz's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lask Linz cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Sturm Graz.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lask Linz beat Sturm Graz 3-1 at Raiffeisen Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lask Linz 0.98 xG and Sturm Graz 0.87 xG, a combined 1.85. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Lask Linz beat their projection by 2.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lask Linz attack 1.01 / defence 0.60 against Sturm Graz attack 1.07 / defence 0.80, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lask Linz 36% | Draw 35% | Sturm Graz 30%, with Lask Linz to win its most likely call at 36%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 57% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lask Linz 43%, Sturm Graz 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lask Linz's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Sturm Graz's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lask Linz 1.73 PPG, Sturm Graz 2.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lask Linz win broke the near-deadlock. Lask Linz (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm. Sturm Graz (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.81 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.