Lask Linz 2-1 Rapid Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lask Linz at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lask Linz host Rapid Vienna at Raiffeisen Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 4. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 14 August 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Lask Linz — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Lask Linz have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lask Linz's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Raiffeisen Arena this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Lask Linz are significantly better at Raiffeisen Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rapid Vienna stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Rapid Vienna have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Rapid Vienna away from home this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 away games — 1.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Lask Linz 1.60 PPG, Rapid Vienna 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
In-Play Data
Lask Linz trading profile (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Rapid Vienna trading profile (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 82% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lask Linz 58% and Rapid Vienna 69% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lask Linz 50% | Rapid Vienna 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lask Linz 1.43 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lask Linz attack 1.103 / defence 0.952 | Rapid Vienna attack 1.030 / defence 0.822. League average goals — home 1.578 / away 1.158. Data: 25 Lask Linz games / 25 Rapid Vienna games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Lask Linz 43% | Draw 27% | Rapid Vienna 29%. Fair-value odds: Lask Linz 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | Rapid Vienna 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lask Linz as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lask Linz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.57 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.0 goals per game points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Lask Linz 50% | Rapid Vienna 80% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (25 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Raiffeisen Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 14 Aug 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lask Linz 43% | Draw 27% | Rapid Vienna 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG Lask Linz 1.43 / Rapid Vienna 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Lask Linz attack 1.103 / def 0.952 | Rapid Vienna attack 1.030 / def 0.822 | league avg home 1.578 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: Lask Linz (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Lask Linz xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Rapid Vienna xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna kick off?
Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 14 August 2022 at Raiffeisen Arena.
What was the final score in Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna?
Lask Linz 2 - 1 Rapid Vienna.
Where is Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Raiffeisen Arena.
What competition is Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna part of?
Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna?
Our statistical model gives Lask Linz a 43% chance of winning, Rapid Vienna a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Lask Linz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Lask Linz and Rapid Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and Rapid Vienna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lask Linz and Rapid Vienna in?
Lask Linz (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-D-W. Rapid Vienna (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Lask Linz's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Rapid Vienna's defensive record (0.82x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. The same calculation in reverse, Rapid Vienna's attack versus Lask Linz's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (25/25 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.1%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.4%), 0-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lask Linz Win
43%
2.31
27%
3.67
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Lask Linz xG
Total xG
2.57
1.14
Rapid Vienna xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.92
48%
BTTS No
2.09
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
24%
4.18
Win to Nil
14%
7.19
7%
14.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 8.7 | 5.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 12.5 | 7.1 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.9 | 8.9 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.3 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Lask Linz and Rapid Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Lask Linz and 1.14 for Rapid Vienna, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 36 outings, Lask Linz have picked up 1.28 PPG on a 11W 13D 12L record — W-L-W-D-W across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Lask Linz, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Rapid Vienna's form line: 14W 12D 10L from 36 games, 1.50 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-D. It's still early in the season for Rapid Vienna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lask Linz on 1.28 PPG, Rapid Vienna on 1.50. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Lask Linz have posted 1.53 PPG from 17 outings (7W 5D 5L).
On the road, Rapid Vienna have gone 5W 6D 6L from 17 away games — 1.24 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Lask Linz are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Rapid Vienna are on 1.53 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Rapid Vienna in 69%.
Last 36 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lask Linz
Early Season
Rapid Vienna
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lask Linz and Rapid Vienna in coming into this match?
Lask Linz have gone 11W 13D 12L in their last 36 games (1.28 PPG), while Rapid Vienna have gone 14W 12D 10L in their last 36 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lask Linz at home or Rapid Vienna away?
Lask Linz's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lask Linz at home: 1.53 PPG; Rapid Vienna away: 1.24 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 4 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Apr 2024, when Lask Linz won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lask Linz's record when hosting Rapid Vienna specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Lask Linz
2
Draws
2
Rapid Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and Rapid Vienna?
From 10 meetings on record, Lask Linz have won 6, Rapid Vienna have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lask Linz and Rapid Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2026, when Lask Linz 3-1 Rapid Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Lask Linz and Rapid Vienna?
Lask Linz have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lask Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 24% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Lask Linz at 53%, Rapid Vienna at 82%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Lask Linz) and 59% (Rapid Vienna). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 24% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lask Linz have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lask Linz home games / Rapid Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lask Linz play Rapid Vienna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Lask Linz's games and 82% of Rapid Vienna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 53% of Lask Linz's matches and 59% of Rapid Vienna's.
Do Lask Linz and Rapid Vienna tend to score early?
Lask Linz have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Rapid Vienna in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Lask Linz edge out Rapid Vienna 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lask Linz beat Rapid Vienna 2-1 at Raiffeisen Arena, Regular Season - 4, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lask Linz 1.43 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.14 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lask Linz attack 1.10 / defence 0.95 against Rapid Vienna attack 1.03 / defence 0.82, drawn from 25/25 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Lask Linz 43% | Draw 27% | Rapid Vienna 29%, with Lask Linz to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lask Linz 50%, Rapid Vienna 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 64%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lask Linz's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lask Linz 1.28 PPG, Rapid Vienna 1.50 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lask Linz win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.