Lask Linz 3-1 Rapid Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lask Linz at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lask Linz host Rapid Vienna at Raiffeisen Arena in Bundesliga, Championship Group - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 4 May 2026 at 19:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Lask Linz — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W W D D W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
Lask Linz's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Raiffeisen Arena this term (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Raiffeisen Arena. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Lask Linz are significantly better at Raiffeisen Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Rapid Vienna stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L D D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Rapid Vienna away from home this season: 2W 5D 3L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Lask Linz 1.60 PPG, Rapid Vienna 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
Lask Linz hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 5 wins from 9 previous encounters compared to 2 for Rapid Vienna, with 2 draws in between.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.1 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 22 Mar 2026, ended 2–4 with Rapid Vienna winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Lask Linz and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 9 meetings, combined with an average of 3.1 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Data
Lask Linz trading profile (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).
Rapid Vienna trading profile (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lask Linz 57% versus Rapid Vienna 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lask Linz 57% | Rapid Vienna 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lask Linz 1.50 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lask Linz attack 1.120 / defence 1.128 | Rapid Vienna attack 0.902 / defence 0.995. League average goals — home 1.346 / away 1.147. Data: 44 Lask Linz games / 44 Rapid Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lask Linz 44% | Draw 27% | Rapid Vienna 29%. Fair-value odds: Lask Linz 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | Rapid Vienna 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lask Linz as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lask Linz offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.67 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.1 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Lask Linz 50% | Rapid Vienna 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Championship Group - 30 | Venue: Raiffeisen Arena • Kick-off: Monday 4 May 2026, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lask Linz 44% | Draw 27% | Rapid Vienna 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Lask Linz 1.50 / Rapid Vienna 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Lask Linz attack 1.120 / def 1.128 | Rapid Vienna attack 0.902 / def 0.995 | league avg home 1.346 / away 1.147 • Poisson stance: Lask Linz (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Lask Linz xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Rapid Vienna xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna kick off?
Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna kicked off at 19:30 on Monday 4 May 2026 at Raiffeisen Arena.
What was the final score in Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna?
Lask Linz 3 - 1 Rapid Vienna.
Where is Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Raiffeisen Arena.
What competition is Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna part of?
Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna is a Championship Group - 30 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna?
Our statistical model gives Lask Linz a 44% chance of winning, Rapid Vienna a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Lask Linz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Lask Linz and Rapid Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and Rapid Vienna?
Record (9 meetings): Lask Linz 5W | Draws 2 | Rapid Vienna 2W.
What form are Lask Linz and Rapid Vienna in?
Lask Linz (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. Rapid Vienna (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Lask Linz's attacking strength (1.12x league average) is weighed against Rapid Vienna's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. The same calculation in reverse, Rapid Vienna's attack versus Lask Linz's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.1%), 1-0 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lask Linz Win
44%
2.26
27%
3.71
29%
3.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Lask Linz xG
Total xG
2.67
1.17
Rapid Vienna xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
3.46
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
22%
4.48
Win to Nil
14%
7.27
6%
15.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.1 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 12.2 | 7.1 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.1 | 5.3 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Lask Linz and Rapid Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Lask Linz and 1.17 for Rapid Vienna, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 63 outings, Lask Linz have picked up 1.68 PPG on a 31W 13D 19L record — W-W-D-D-W across the most recent five.
Rapid Vienna's form line: 25W 16D 22L from 63 games, 1.44 PPG, last five L-D-D-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lask Linz on 1.68 PPG, Rapid Vienna on 1.44. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Lask Linz have posted 1.87 PPG from 31 outings (17W 7D 7L).
On the road, Rapid Vienna have gone 7W 12D 12L from 31 away games — 1.06 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lask Linz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Lask Linz are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game recently; Rapid Vienna are on 1.30 scored and 1.25 conceded.
Last 63 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lask Linz
Current Season
Rapid Vienna
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lask Linz and Rapid Vienna in coming into this match?
Lask Linz have gone 31W 13D 19L in their last 63 games (1.68 PPG), while Rapid Vienna have gone 25W 16D 22L in their last 63 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lask Linz at home or Rapid Vienna away?
Lask Linz's home record (1.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lask Linz at home: 1.87 PPG; Rapid Vienna away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Lask Linz or Rapid Vienna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lask Linz have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Rapid Vienna in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 4 May 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Apr 2024, when Lask Linz won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lask Linz's record when hosting Rapid Vienna specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Lask Linz
2
Draws
2
Rapid Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and Rapid Vienna?
From 10 meetings on record, Lask Linz have won 6, Rapid Vienna have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Lask Linz and Rapid Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 4 May 2026, when Lask Linz 3-1 Rapid Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Lask Linz and Rapid Vienna?
Lask Linz have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lask Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lask Linz 48%, Rapid Vienna 71% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Lask Linz) and 48% (Rapid Vienna).
On the defensive side: Lask Linz keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lask Linz home games / Rapid Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lask Linz play Rapid Vienna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Lask Linz's games and 71% of Rapid Vienna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lask Linz vs Rapid Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Lask Linz's recent games and 48% of Rapid Vienna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Lask Linz and Rapid Vienna tend to score early?
Lask Linz have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Rapid Vienna in 74% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lask Linz cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Rapid Vienna.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lask Linz beat Rapid Vienna 3-1 at Raiffeisen Arena, Championship Group - 30, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lask Linz 1.50 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.17 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Lask Linz beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lask Linz attack 1.12 / defence 1.13 against Rapid Vienna attack 0.90 / defence 0.99, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lask Linz 44% | Draw 27% | Rapid Vienna 29%, with Lask Linz to win its most likely call at 44%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lask Linz 57%, Rapid Vienna 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lask Linz's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lask Linz 1.68 PPG, Rapid Vienna 1.44 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Lask Linz win broke the near-deadlock. Lask Linz (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.71 average — above their attacking norm. Rapid Vienna (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.55 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.