Lask Linz 3-0 Grazer AK – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lask Linz at 44% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lask Linz vs Grazer AK encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Lask Linz and Grazer AK meet at Raiffeisen Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 1. This fixture gets under way on Friday 31 July 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Form
Lask Linz (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Lask Linz haven't played a Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Lask Linz's form when playing at home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 games at Raiffeisen Arena this term (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Grazer AK have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Bundesliga outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: L L W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Grazer AK haven't played a Bundesliga game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Grazer AK's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Bundesliga this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.10 vs 1.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Across 6 previous meetings, Lask Linz are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 1, with 1 draws in between.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Dec 2025, ended 2–1 with Lask Linz winning.
The historical record gives Lask Linz a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Lask Linz — key trading statistics (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 41%.
Grazer AK — key trading statistics (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lask Linz 59% versus Grazer AK 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lask Linz 59% | Grazer AK 59%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lask Linz 1.47 xG and Grazer AK 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lask Linz attack 1.039 / defence 1.042 | Grazer AK attack 0.950 / defence 1.032. League average goals — home 1.375 / away 1.145. Data: 22 Lask Linz games / 22 Grazer AK games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Lask Linz 44% | Draw 27% | Grazer AK 29%. Fair-value odds: Lask Linz 2.27 | Draw 3.70 | Grazer AK 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.61. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.61 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lask Linz at 44% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Lask Linz if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.61 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 53% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Lask Linz 60% | Grazer AK 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (22 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lask Linz vs Grazer AK | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Raiffeisen Arena • Kick-off: Friday 31 Jul 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lask Linz 44% | Draw 27% | Grazer AK 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 53% | xG Lask Linz 1.47 / Grazer AK 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Lask Linz attack 1.039 / def 1.042 | Grazer AK attack 0.950 / def 1.032 | league avg home 1.375 / away 1.145 • Poisson stance: Lask Linz (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Lask Linz xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Grazer AK xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lask Linz vs Grazer AK kick off?
Lask Linz vs Grazer AK kicked off at 17:30 on Friday 31 July 2026 at Raiffeisen Arena.
What was the final score in Lask Linz vs Grazer AK?
Lask Linz 3 - 0 Grazer AK.
Where is Lask Linz vs Grazer AK being played?
The match is being played at Raiffeisen Arena.
What competition is Lask Linz vs Grazer AK part of?
Lask Linz vs Grazer AK is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Lask Linz vs Grazer AK?
Our statistical model gives Lask Linz a 44% chance of winning, Grazer AK a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Lask Linz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lask Linz vs Grazer AK?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Lask Linz and Grazer AK will score (BTTS).
Will Lask Linz vs Grazer AK have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and Grazer AK?
Record (6 meetings): Lask Linz 4W | Draws 1 | Grazer AK 1W.
What form are Lask Linz and Grazer AK in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Lask Linz (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Lask Linz's attack rating (1.04) and Grazer AK's defence rating (1.03), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Grazer AK's attack (0.95x) against Lask Linz's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 1.13.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.3%), 2-1 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lask Linz Win
44%
2.25
27%
3.70
29%
3.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Lask Linz xG
Total xG
2.61
1.13
Grazer AK xG
2.25
44%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
3.50
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
23%
4.37
Win to Nil
14%
6.99
7%
15.29
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.4 | 8.4 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 12.3 | 7.0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 9.1 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lask Linz vs Grazer AK?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Lask Linz and Grazer AK expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Lask Linz and 1.13 for Grazer AK, a combined total of 2.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Lask Linz vs Grazer AK?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 32 outings, Lask Linz have picked up 1.81 PPG on a 17W 7D 8L record — D-W-W-W-W across the most recent five. Lask Linz haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Grazer AK's form line: 9W 10D 13L from 32 games, 1.16 PPG, last five L-L-W-D-W. Grazer AK haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Put side by side, Lask Linz are the form team by 0.65 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Grazer AK.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Lask Linz have posted 2.06 PPG from 16 outings (10W 3D 3L).
On the road, Grazer AK have gone 3W 3D 10L from 16 away games — 0.75 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.16 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Grazer AK's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Lask Linz come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Lask Linz are averaging 1.75 goals scored and 1.31 conceded per game recently; Grazer AK are on 1.31 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Last 32 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lask Linz
Pre-Season
Grazer AK
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lask Linz and Grazer AK in coming into this match?
Lask Linz have gone 17W 7D 8L in their last 32 games (1.81 PPG), while Grazer AK have gone 9W 10D 13L in their last 32 (1.16 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lask Linz at home or Grazer AK away?
Lask Linz's home record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lask Linz at home: 2.06 PPG; Grazer AK away: 0.75 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since September 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 31 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Lask Linz have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Lask Linz won 3-0 on 31 Jul 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Lask Linz have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Grazer AK — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
5
Lask Linz
1
Draws
1
Grazer AK
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and Grazer AK?
From 7 meetings on record, Lask Linz have won 5, Grazer AK have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Lask Linz and Grazer AK last play each other?
They last met on 31 July 2026, when Lask Linz 3-0 Grazer AK.
Who has won more matches between Lask Linz and Grazer AK?
Lask Linz have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Lask Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Grazer AK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lask Linz 56%, Grazer AK 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Lask Linz) and 56% (Grazer AK). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 19% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lask Linz keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Grazer AK in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lask Linz home games / Grazer AK away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lask Linz play Grazer AK?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Lask Linz's recent matches and 44% of Grazer AK's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lask Linz vs Grazer AK usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Lask Linz's matches and 56% of Grazer AK's.
Do Lask Linz and Grazer AK tend to score early?
Lask Linz have had a goal before half-time in 81% of their recent matches, Grazer AK in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Lask Linz run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Grazer AK.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Lask Linz beat Grazer AK 3-0 at Raiffeisen Arena, Regular Season - 1, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lask Linz 1.47 xG and Grazer AK 1.13 xG, a combined 2.61. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Lask Linz beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Grazer AK landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lask Linz attack 1.04 / defence 1.04 against Grazer AK attack 0.95 / defence 1.03, drawn from 22/22 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lask Linz 44% | Draw 27% | Grazer AK 29%, with Lask Linz to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lask Linz 59%, Grazer AK 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lask Linz's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Grazer AK's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Lask Linz arrived the stronger side — 1.81 PPG against 1.16. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Lask Linz (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. Grazer AK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.56 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.