Lask Linz 2-2 Austria Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Austria Vienna at 51%, yet other data sources diverge — this Lask Linz vs Austria Vienna fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Lask Linz host Austria Vienna at Raiffeisen Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 23 October 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Lask Linz — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.80 points per game. Last five: D L D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Lask Linz, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Lask Linz's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Raiffeisen Arena this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Austria Vienna stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Austria Vienna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Austria Vienna have posted 4W 2D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Lask Linz at 1.80 PPG versus Austria Vienna's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Lask Linz register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Austria Vienna in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
In-Play Profile
Lask Linz in-play tendencies (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Austria Vienna in-play tendencies (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Lask Linz 64% and Austria Vienna 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lask Linz 52% | Austria Vienna 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lask Linz 1.58 xG and Austria Vienna 2.19 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lask Linz attack 1.069 / defence 1.141 | Austria Vienna attack 1.071 / defence 1.126. League average goals — home 1.311 / away 1.788. Data: 34 Lask Linz games / 34 Austria Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lask Linz 27% | Draw 22% | Austria Vienna 51%. Fair-value odds: Lask Linz 3.70 | Draw 4.55 | Austria Vienna 1.96. Austria Vienna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (22%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 73% | BTTS probability 71% | Total xG 3.76. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 73% — a total xG of 3.76 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 71% reflects that both xG figures (1.58 / 2.19) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Austria Vienna are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. With a 22% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Austria Vienna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 3.76 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 73% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 71%. Form rates corroborate: Lask Linz 80% | Austria Vienna 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lask Linz vs Austria Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Raiffeisen Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Oct 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lask Linz 27% | Draw 22% | Austria Vienna 51% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 73% | BTTS 71% | xG Lask Linz 1.58 / Austria Vienna 2.19 • Poisson strength factors: Lask Linz attack 1.069 / def 1.141 | Austria Vienna attack 1.071 / def 1.126 | league avg home 1.311 / away 1.788 • Poisson stance: Austria Vienna (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.58
Lask Linz xG
Expected Goals
2.19
Austria Vienna xG
71%
BTTS
90%
Over 1.5
73%
Over 2.5
52%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lask Linz vs Austria Vienna kick off?
Lask Linz vs Austria Vienna kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 23 October 2022 at Raiffeisen Arena.
What was the final score in Lask Linz vs Austria Vienna?
Lask Linz 2 - 2 Austria Vienna.
Where is Lask Linz vs Austria Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Raiffeisen Arena.
What competition is Lask Linz vs Austria Vienna part of?
Lask Linz vs Austria Vienna is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Lask Linz vs Austria Vienna?
Our statistical model gives Lask Linz a 27% chance of winning, Austria Vienna a 51% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Austria Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lask Linz vs Austria Vienna?
Our model estimates a 71% probability that both Lask Linz and Austria Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will Lask Linz vs Austria Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 73%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and Austria Vienna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Lask Linz and Austria Vienna in?
Lask Linz (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-L-W. Austria Vienna (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Lask Linz's attack at 1.07x the league average against Austria Vienna's defence at 1.13x — combine the two and it projects 1.58 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Austria Vienna's attack versus Lask Linz's defence, projects 2.19 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-2 (6.9%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Vienna Win
27%
3.70
22%
4.52
51%
1.97
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.0%
Draw
2 – 2
6.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.58
Lask Linz xG
Total xG
3.76
2.19
Austria Vienna xG
3.70
27%
Home win
4.52
22%
Draw
1.97
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
73%
Over 2.5
1.37
27%
Under 2.5
3.70
52%
Over 3.5
1.92
48%
Under 3.5
2.08
33%
Over 4.5
3.03
67%
Under 4.5
1.49
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
71%
BTTS Yes
1.40
29%
BTTS No
3.48
Clean Sheet
11%
8.90
21%
4.85
Win to Nil
3%
32.94
10%
9.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.3 | 5.1 | 5.5 | 4.0 | 2.2 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 3.7 | 8.0 | 8.7 | 6.4 | 3.5 | 1.5 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 6.3 | 6.9 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.2 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lask Linz vs Austria Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.0%.
How many goals are Lask Linz and Austria Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.58 expected goals for Lask Linz and 2.19 for Austria Vienna, a combined total of 3.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Lask Linz vs Austria Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Lask Linz come into this having played 44 games, going 14W 16D 14L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-L-W. The sample for Lask Linz is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Austria Vienna sit at 1.45 PPG from 44 outings (16W 16D 12L), a run that reads W-W-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Austria Vienna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Lask Linz on 1.32 PPG, Austria Vienna on 1.45. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Lask Linz's home form reads 9W 6D 7L across 22 games on their own ground, a 1.50 PPG return.
Away from home, Austria Vienna have taken 1.41 points per game from 22 outings (8W 7D 7L).
Goals in Recent Form
Lask Linz are averaging 1.52 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Austria Vienna are on 1.48 scored and 1.36 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Lask Linz have seen both teams score in 64% of their recent games; Austria Vienna in 66%.
Last 44 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lask Linz
Blended
Austria Vienna
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lask Linz and Austria Vienna in coming into this match?
Lask Linz have gone 14W 16D 14L in their last 44 games (1.32 PPG), while Austria Vienna have gone 16W 16D 12L in their last 44 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lask Linz at home or Austria Vienna away?
Lask Linz's home record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lask Linz at home: 1.50 PPG; Austria Vienna away: 1.41 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Lask Linz go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Apr 2026, when Lask Linz won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lask Linz's record when hosting Austria Vienna specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Lask Linz
3
Draws
2
Austria Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lask Linz and Austria Vienna?
From 10 meetings on record, Lask Linz have won 5, Austria Vienna have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Lask Linz and Austria Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Austria Vienna 0-3 Lask Linz.
Who has won more matches between Lask Linz and Austria Vienna?
Lask Linz have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Lask Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 46% of the time.
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lask Linz 59%, Austria Vienna 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Lask Linz) and 54% (Austria Vienna). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 23% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Lask Linz have failed to score in 27% of games; Austria Vienna in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lask Linz home games / Austria Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lask Linz play Austria Vienna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Lask Linz's games and 59% of Austria Vienna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Lask Linz vs Austria Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Lask Linz's matches and 54% of Austria Vienna's.
Do Lask Linz and Austria Vienna tend to score early?
Lask Linz have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Austria Vienna in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Lask Linz and Austria Vienna share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Raiffeisen Arena, Regular Season - 13, as Lask Linz and Austria Vienna drew 2-2 in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lask Linz 1.58 xG and Austria Vienna 2.19 xG, a combined 3.76. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lask Linz attack 1.07 / defence 1.14 against Austria Vienna attack 1.07 / defence 1.13, drawn from 34/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lask Linz 27% | Draw 22% | Austria Vienna 51%, with Austria Vienna to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 73%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 52% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 71% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lask Linz 52%, Austria Vienna 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 65%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lask Linz's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Austria Vienna's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Lask Linz 1.32 PPG, Austria Vienna 1.45 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.