Grazer AK 0-0 Wolfsberger AC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Grazer AK at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Grazer AK vs Wolfsberger AC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Grazer AK host Wolfsberger AC at Merkur-Arena in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 29 August 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Grazer AK have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W L W L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Grazer AK have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
In front of their own supporters this season, Grazer AK have posted 6W 3D 1L at Merkur-Arena — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Grazer AK are significantly better at Merkur-Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Wolfsberger AC stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W L W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Wolfsberger AC have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Wolfsberger AC away from home this season: 2W 0D 8L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Wolfsberger AC — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Grazer AK register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant matches, Wolfsberger AC in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
The previous 6 encounters between these sides heavily favour Wolfsberger AC, who boast 4 victories compared to 1 for Grazer AK.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 25 Apr 2026, ended 0–1 with Wolfsberger AC winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Wolfsberger AC have won 4 of 6 previous encounters, and at 4.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
Grazer AK in-play and half-time data (36 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 76% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Wolfsberger AC in-play and half-time data (36 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Grazer AK 56% versus Wolfsberger AC 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Grazer AK 61% | Wolfsberger AC 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Grazer AK 1.76 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grazer AK attack 1.057 / defence 1.003 | Wolfsberger AC attack 0.918 / defence 1.148. League average goals — home 1.454 / away 1.160. Data: 26 Grazer AK games / 25 Wolfsberger AC games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Grazer AK 53% | Draw 26% | Wolfsberger AC 22%. Fair-value odds: Grazer AK 1.89 | Draw 3.85 | Wolfsberger AC 4.55. Grazer AK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Grazer AK are the pick at 53% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Wolfsberger AC (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Grazer AK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.83 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Grazer AK 80% | Wolfsberger AC 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (25 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Grazer AK vs Wolfsberger AC | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Merkur-Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 29 Aug 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Grazer AK 53% | Draw 26% | Wolfsberger AC 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG Grazer AK 1.76 / Wolfsberger AC 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Grazer AK attack 1.057 / def 1.003 | Wolfsberger AC attack 0.918 / def 1.148 | league avg home 1.454 / away 1.160 • Poisson stance: Grazer AK (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Grazer AK xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Wolfsberger AC xG
56%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Grazer AK vs Wolfsberger AC kick off?
Grazer AK vs Wolfsberger AC kicked off at 15:00 on Saturday 29 August 2026 at Merkur-Arena.
What was the final score in Grazer AK vs Wolfsberger AC?
Grazer AK 0 - 0 Wolfsberger AC.
Where is Grazer AK vs Wolfsberger AC being played?
The match is being played at Merkur-Arena.
What competition is Grazer AK vs Wolfsberger AC part of?
Grazer AK vs Wolfsberger AC is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Grazer AK vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our statistical model gives Grazer AK a 53% chance of winning, Wolfsberger AC a 22% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Grazer AK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Grazer AK vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Grazer AK and Wolfsberger AC will score (BTTS).
Will Grazer AK vs Wolfsberger AC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Grazer AK and Wolfsberger AC?
Record (6 meetings): Grazer AK 1W | Draws 1 | Wolfsberger AC 4W.
What form are Grazer AK and Wolfsberger AC in?
Grazer AK (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-L-W-L-L. Wolfsberger AC (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Grazer AK's attack rating (1.06) and Wolfsberger AC's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.76 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Wolfsberger AC's attack versus Grazer AK's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (26/25 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.5%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Grazer AK Win
53%
1.90
26%
3.88
22%
4.61
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Grazer AK xG
Total xG
2.83
1.07
Wolfsberger AC xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
4.61
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.80
44%
BTTS No
2.25
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
17%
5.84
Win to Nil
18%
5.54
4%
26.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 6.3 | 3.4 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.4 | 11.1 | 5.9 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.8 | 5.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.8 | 3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Grazer AK vs Wolfsberger AC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Grazer AK and Wolfsberger AC expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Grazer AK and 1.07 for Wolfsberger AC, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Grazer AK vs Wolfsberger AC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 36 outings, Grazer AK have picked up 1.11 PPG on a 10W 10D 16L record — W-L-W-L-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Grazer AK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Wolfsberger AC's form line: 12W 9D 15L from 36 games, 1.25 PPG, last five W-L-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for Wolfsberger AC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Grazer AK on 1.11 PPG, Wolfsberger AC on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Grazer AK have posted 1.65 PPG from 17 outings (7W 7D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.11 PPG overall — Grazer AK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Wolfsberger AC have gone 4W 2D 11L from 17 away games — 0.82 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.25 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Wolfsberger AC's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Grazer AK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Grazer AK are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Wolfsberger AC are on 1.31 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Grazer AK
Early Season
Wolfsberger AC
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Grazer AK and Wolfsberger AC in coming into this match?
Grazer AK have gone 10W 10D 16L in their last 36 games (1.11 PPG), while Wolfsberger AC have gone 12W 9D 15L in their last 36 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Grazer AK at home or Wolfsberger AC away?
Grazer AK's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Grazer AK at home: 1.65 PPG; Wolfsberger AC away: 0.82 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Grazer AK and Wolfsberger AC runs to 7 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 29 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
Grazer AK's record when hosting Wolfsberger AC specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
Grazer AK
2
Draws
4
Wolfsberger AC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Grazer AK and Wolfsberger AC?
From 7 meetings on record, Grazer AK have won 1, Wolfsberger AC have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Grazer AK and Wolfsberger AC last play each other?
They last met on 29 August 2026, when Grazer AK 0-0 Wolfsberger AC.
Who has won more matches between Grazer AK and Wolfsberger AC?
Wolfsberger AC have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Grazer AK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
Wolfsberger AC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Grazer AK at 76%, Wolfsberger AC at 71%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Grazer AK and 71% for Wolfsberger AC. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 35% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Grazer AK home games / Wolfsberger AC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Grazer AK play Wolfsberger AC?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 76% of Grazer AK's games and 71% of Wolfsberger AC's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Grazer AK vs Wolfsberger AC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Grazer AK's matches and 71% of Wolfsberger AC's.
Do Grazer AK and Wolfsberger AC tend to score early?
Grazer AK have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Wolfsberger AC in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Grazer AK's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Merkur-Arena, Regular Season - 5, as Grazer AK and Wolfsberger AC drew 0-0 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Grazer AK 1.76 xG and Wolfsberger AC 1.07 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Grazer AK fell 1.8 short of their projected output. Wolfsberger AC landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Grazer AK attack 1.06 / defence 1.00 against Wolfsberger AC attack 0.92 / defence 1.15, drawn from 26/25 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Grazer AK 53% | Draw 26% | Wolfsberger AC 22%, with Grazer AK to win its most likely call at 53%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Grazer AK 61%, Wolfsberger AC 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Grazer AK's trading profile (36 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Wolfsberger AC's trading profile (36 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Grazer AK 1.11 PPG, Wolfsberger AC 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Grazer AK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.65 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line. Wolfsberger AC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.24 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.82 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.