Grazer AK vs Sturm Graz – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates Grazer AK at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Grazer AK vs Sturm Graz fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Bundesliga encounter, Regular Season - 16 sees Sturm Graz travel to Merkur-Arena to take on Grazer AK. The game is scheduled for Sunday 13 December 2026, 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Bundesliga games this season, Grazer AK have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: L W L L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Grazer AK have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Grazer AK's form when playing at home: 5W 4D 1L across 10 games at Merkur-Arena this term (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Grazer AK are significantly better at Merkur-Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sturm Graz stand at 4W 5D 1L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Sturm Graz have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Sturm Graz have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Sturm Graz are 0.60 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The previous 4 encounters between these sides heavily favour Sturm Graz, who boast 4 victories compared to 0 for Grazer AK.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 4 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 7 Dec 2025, ended 1–2 with Sturm Graz winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Sturm Graz have won 4 of 4 previous encounters, and at 4.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Grazer AK trading profile (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Sturm Graz trading profile (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Grazer AK 54% versus Sturm Graz 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Grazer AK 60% | Sturm Graz 38%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Grazer AK 1.24 xG and Sturm Graz 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Grazer AK attack 0.851 / defence 0.870 | Sturm Graz attack 1.040 / defence 0.924. League average goals — home 1.576 / away 1.177. Data: 27 Grazer AK games / 27 Sturm Graz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Grazer AK 37% | Draw 34% | Sturm Graz 29%. Fair-value odds: Grazer AK 2.70 | Draw 2.94 | Sturm Graz 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 34% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Grazer AK as the most likely outcome at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sturm Graz (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Grazer AK offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.31 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging only 4.0 goals per meeting point in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. This conflicts with form data: Grazer AK 70% | Sturm Graz 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Grazer AK vs Sturm Graz | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Merkur-Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 13 Dec 2026, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Grazer AK 37% | Draw 34% | Sturm Graz 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 49% | xG Grazer AK 1.24 / Sturm Graz 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Grazer AK attack 0.851 / def 0.870 | Sturm Graz attack 1.040 / def 0.924 | league avg home 1.576 / away 1.177 • Poisson stance: Grazer AK (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.24
Grazer AK xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Sturm Graz xG
49%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Grazer AK vs Sturm Graz kick off?
Grazer AK vs Sturm Graz is scheduled to kick off at 13:30 on Sunday 13 December 2026 at Merkur-Arena.
Where is Grazer AK vs Sturm Graz being played?
The match is being played at Merkur-Arena.
What competition is Grazer AK vs Sturm Graz part of?
Grazer AK vs Sturm Graz is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Grazer AK vs Sturm Graz?
Our statistical model gives Grazer AK a 37% chance of winning, Sturm Graz a 29% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Grazer AK the favourite.
Will both teams score in Grazer AK vs Sturm Graz?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Grazer AK and Sturm Graz will score (BTTS).
Will Grazer AK vs Sturm Graz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Grazer AK and Sturm Graz?
Record (4 meetings): Grazer AK 0W | Draws 0 | Sturm Graz 4W.
What form are Grazer AK and Sturm Graz in?
Grazer AK (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-L-D. Sturm Graz (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Grazer AK's attacking strength (0.85x league average) is weighed against Sturm Graz's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.24. The same calculation in reverse, Sturm Graz's attack versus Grazer AK's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 27/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.7%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Grazer AK Win
37%
2.68
34%
2.94
29%
3.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
10.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.24
Grazer AK xG
Total xG
2.31
1.07
Sturm Graz xG
2.68
37%
Home win
2.94
34%
Draw
3.48
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.02
51%
BTTS No
1.98
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
29%
3.45
Win to Nil
13%
7.79
8%
12.02
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 10.6 | 5.7 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.2 | 7.0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 8.2 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.4 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Grazer AK vs Sturm Graz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Grazer AK and Sturm Graz expected to score?
The model projects 1.24 expected goals for Grazer AK and 1.07 for Sturm Graz, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for Grazer AK vs Sturm Graz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Grazer AK's recent record stands at 10W 11D 16L from 37 games, a 1.11 PPG return, with L-W-L-L-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Grazer AK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Sturm Graz, meanwhile, have gone 18W 10D 9L across 37 games — 1.73 PPG, with D-W-W-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Sturm Graz, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sturm Graz by 0.62 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Grazer AK heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Grazer AK have managed 7W 8D 3L from 18 games — 1.61 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.11 PPG overall — Grazer AK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Sturm Graz's away record stands at 10W 4D 4L across 18 trips, a 1.89 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Grazer AK are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Sturm Graz are on 1.54 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: Sturm Graz in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Grazer AK
Early Season
Sturm Graz
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Grazer AK and Sturm Graz in coming into this match?
Grazer AK have gone 10W 11D 16L in their last 37 games (1.11 PPG), while Sturm Graz have gone 18W 10D 9L in their last 37 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Grazer AK at home or Sturm Graz away?
Sturm Graz's away record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Grazer AK at home: 1.61 PPG; Sturm Graz away: 1.89 PPG.
Have Grazer AK or Sturm Graz been keeping clean sheets recently?
Grazer AK have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, Sturm Graz in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Grazer AK and Sturm Graz runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. They last met on 7 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Sturm Graz have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 Oct 2024, when Sturm Graz won 5-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Grazer AK's record when hosting Sturm Graz specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Grazer AK
0
Draws
4
Sturm Graz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Grazer AK and Sturm Graz?
From 4 meetings on record, Grazer AK have won 0, Sturm Graz have won 4, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Grazer AK and Sturm Graz last play each other?
They last met on 7 December 2025, when Sturm Graz 2-1 Grazer AK.
Who has won more matches between Grazer AK and Sturm Graz?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Grazer AK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Grazer AK at 72%, Sturm Graz at 61%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Grazer AK) and 50% (Sturm Graz). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 33% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Sturm Graz in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Grazer AK home games / Sturm Graz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Grazer AK play Sturm Graz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 72% of Grazer AK's games and 61% of Sturm Graz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Grazer AK vs Sturm Graz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Grazer AK's matches and 50% of Sturm Graz's.
Do Grazer AK and Sturm Graz tend to score early?
Grazer AK have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Sturm Graz in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.