FC BW Linz 4-1 TSV Hartberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as FC BW Linz take on TSV Hartberg.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
TSV Hartberg make the trip to Hofmann Personal Stadion to face FC BW Linz in Bundesliga (matchday 22). The match kicks off on Sunday 16 March 2025 at 16:00 UK time.
Form & Momentum
FC BW Linz have collected 1.60 PPG across their last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: D L L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
FC BW Linz's form when playing at home: 6W 0D 4L across their last 10 home games (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
TSV Hartberg's record over their last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Last five: D D D L W. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
TSV Hartberg's away record over their last 10 away games: 2W 4D 4L (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward FC BW Linz. A 0.60 PPG lead over TSV Hartberg (1.60 vs 1.00) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 3 H2H matches in our data, TSV Hartberg edge it 2 wins to 0, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.7 per game across the 3 H2H matches we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 26 Oct 2024, ended FC BW Linz 1–2 TSV Hartberg — a TSV Hartberg win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.7 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
FC BW Linz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 53 games, 26 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 43%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
TSV Hartberg goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 53 games, 26 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 73% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 29%; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 28%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC BW Linz 55% versus TSV Hartberg 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC BW Linz 51% | TSV Hartberg 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects FC BW Linz 1.19 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC BW Linz attack 0.924 / defence 1.080 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.816 / defence 0.842. League average goals — home 1.531 / away 1.210. Data: built from FC BW Linz's last 43 games and TSV Hartberg's last 43.
Result probabilities: FC BW Linz 35% | Draw 37% | TSV Hartberg 29%. Fair-value odds: FC BW Linz 2.88 | Draw 2.73 | TSV Hartberg 3.49. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS Yes probability 50% | Total xG 2.26. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.26 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS Yes at 50% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 35% and away win at 29% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.26 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Under 2.5 — low conviction — though the H2H data averaging 4.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 50%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC BW Linz 50% (last 10 home games) | TSV Hartberg 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: FC BW Linz vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, matchday 22 | Venue: Hofmann Personal Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 16 March 2025 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: FC BW Linz 35% | Draw 37% | TSV Hartberg 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% (Under 61%) | BTTS Yes 50% (No 50%) | xG FC BW Linz 1.19 / TSV Hartberg 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: FC BW Linz attack 0.924 / def 1.080 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.816 / def 0.842 | league avg home 1.531 / away 1.210 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
FC BW Linz xG
Expected Goals
1.07
TSV Hartberg xG
50%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ FC BW Linz vs TSV Hartberg FAQs
What time does FC BW Linz vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
FC BW Linz vs TSV Hartberg kicked off at 16:00 UK time on Sunday 16 March 2025 at Hofmann Personal Stadion.
What was the final score in FC BW Linz vs TSV Hartberg?
FC BW Linz 4 - 1 TSV Hartberg.
Where is FC BW Linz vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at Hofmann Personal Stadion.
What competition is FC BW Linz vs TSV Hartberg part of?
FC BW Linz vs TSV Hartberg is a Bundesliga fixture (matchday 22) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win FC BW Linz vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives FC BW Linz a 35% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 29% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw — making the draw the single most likely result.
Will both teams score in FC BW Linz vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both FC BW Linz and TSV Hartberg will score — effectively a coin flip.
Will FC BW Linz vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (61%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates FC BW Linz's attack at 0.92x the league average against TSV Hartberg's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — TSV Hartberg's attack (0.82x) against FC BW Linz's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from FC BW Linz's last 43 games and TSV Hartberg's last 43 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.2%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
35%
2.88
37%
2.73
29%
3.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.5%
Home win
0 – 1
11.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
FC BW Linz xG
Total xG
2.26
1.07
TSV Hartberg xG
2.88
35%
Home win
2.73
37%
Draw
3.49
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
34%
2.91
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
12%
8.36
9%
11.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 11.2 | 6.0 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.5 | 13.3 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 7.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ FC BW Linz vs TSV Hartberg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for FC BW Linz vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are FC BW Linz and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for FC BW Linz and 1.07 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 2.26.
How confident is the prediction model for FC BW Linz vs TSV Hartberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
FC BW Linz come into this having played 53 games, going 16W 14D 23L for 1.17 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-W-W.
On the other side, TSV Hartberg sit at 1.30 PPG from 53 outings (18W 15D 20L), a run that reads D-D-D-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.17 PPG for FC BW Linz against 1.30 for TSV Hartberg. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
FC BW Linz's home form reads 10W 8D 8L across their last 26 home games, a 1.46 PPG return.
Away from home, TSV Hartberg have taken 1.23 points per game from their last 26 away games (8W 8D 10L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
FC BW Linz are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.43 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.28 scored and 1.45 conceded.
Last 53 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
FC BW Linz
Blended
TSV Hartberg
Blended
FC BW Linz (Home) vs TSV Hartberg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
FC BW Linz
Blended
TSV Hartberg
Blended
❓ FC BW Linz vs TSV Hartberg Form FAQs
What form are FC BW Linz and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
FC BW Linz have gone 16W 14D 23L in their last 53 games (1.17 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 18W 15D 20L in their last 53 (1.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — FC BW Linz at home or TSV Hartberg away?
FC BW Linz's home record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — FC BW Linz at home: 1.46 PPG; TSV Hartberg away: 1.23 PPG.
Have FC BW Linz or TSV Hartberg been keeping clean sheets recently?
FC BW Linz have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, TSV Hartberg in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 6 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to August 2023 — enough to show some patterns. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was on 8 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: FC BW Linz won FC BW Linz 4-1 TSV Hartberg on 16 Mar 2025, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, FC BW Linz have gone 1W 1D 1L from the 3 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against TSV Hartberg — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
1
FC BW Linz
2
Draws
3
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ FC BW Linz vs TSV Hartberg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between FC BW Linz and TSV Hartberg?
Across the 6 head-to-head matches in our data, FC BW Linz have won 1, TSV Hartberg have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did FC BW Linz and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 8 March 2026: TSV Hartberg 1-1 FC BW Linz.
Who has won more matches between FC BW Linz and TSV Hartberg?
TSV Hartberg have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 6 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
FC BW Linz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — FC BW Linz 54%, TSV Hartberg 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (FC BW Linz) and 62% (TSV Hartberg). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 15% and 35% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC BW Linz keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; TSV Hartberg in 31%; TSV Hartberg in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = FC BW Linz home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ FC BW Linz vs TSV Hartberg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in FC BW Linz and TSV Hartberg matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of FC BW Linz's recent matches and 54% of TSV Hartberg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are FC BW Linz and TSV Hartberg matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of FC BW Linz's matches and 62% of TSV Hartberg's.
Do FC BW Linz and TSV Hartberg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 73% of FC BW Linz's recent matches and 73% of TSV Hartberg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant FC BW Linz run riot with a 4-1 hammering of TSV Hartberg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
FC BW Linz beat TSV Hartberg 4-1 at Hofmann Personal Stadion, Regular Season - 22, in the Bundesliga. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting FC BW Linz 1.19 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.07 xG, a combined 2.26. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. FC BW Linz beat their projection by 2.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of FC BW Linz attack 0.92 / defence 1.08 against TSV Hartberg attack 0.82 / defence 0.84, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it FC BW Linz 35% | Draw 37% | TSV Hartberg 29%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual FC BW Linz win had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (FC BW Linz 51%, TSV Hartberg 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
FC BW Linz's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — FC BW Linz 1.17 PPG, TSV Hartberg 1.30 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the FC BW Linz win broke the near-deadlock. FC BW Linz (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.23 average — above their attacking norm. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.