FC BW Linz 1-2 Grazer AK – Result & Analysis

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Poisson rates FC BW Linz at 63% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC BW Linz vs Grazer AK encounter.

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Analysis

Grazer AK make the trip to Hofmann Personal Stadion to face FC BW Linz in Bundesliga (matchday 14). The match kicks off on Sunday 24 November 2024 at 13:30 UK time.

Form

FC BW Linz (all games): 4W 1D 5L across their last 10 — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.

FC BW Linz's form when playing at home: 6W 1D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — FC BW Linz are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Grazer AK have collected 0.70 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L L D D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.

Grazer AK's away record over their last 7 away games: 0W 3D 4L (0.43 PPG). Away from home they average 1.14 goals scored and 2.29 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Form favours the hosts. FC BW Linz's 1.30 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Grazer AK's 0.70 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, the wins are level at 0 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

These two sides have produced goals at a healthy rate, averaging 4.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold. That scoring profile supports the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent of those, on 17 Aug 2024, ended FC BW Linz 2–2 Grazer AK — a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.

Trading Data

FC BW Linz goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 13 games, 6 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; of the 5 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 60%; BTTS occurs in 17% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).

Grazer AK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (last 13 games, 6 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — FC BW Linz 54% and Grazer AK 77% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC BW Linz 54% | Grazer AK 54%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FC BW Linz 1.90 xG and Grazer AK 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC BW Linz attack 0.974 / defence 0.783 | Grazer AK attack 0.933 / defence 1.260. League average goals — home 1.551 / away 1.086. Grazer AK's defence rating of 1.260 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing FC BW Linz's projected output up. FC BW Linz have a tight defence (rating 0.783), which is pulling Grazer AK's projected output down. Data: built from FC BW Linz's last 35 games and Grazer AK's last 13.

Result probabilities: FC BW Linz 63% | Draw 23% | Grazer AK 14%. Fair-value odds: FC BW Linz 1.59 | Draw 4.41 | Grazer AK 6.99. The model has a clear lean to FC BW Linz (63%) — a 40pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS Yes probability 47% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS No at 53% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates FC BW Linz as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.70 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (FC BW Linz's last 10 home games and Grazer AK's last 7 away games) averaging 2.8 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 53%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: FC BW Linz 40% (last 10 home games) | Grazer AK 71% (last 7 away games).

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