Austria Vienna 2-1 TSV Hartberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Austria Vienna at 49% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Austria Vienna face TSV Hartberg.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
TSV Hartberg travel to Generali Arena to take on Austria Vienna in Bundesliga (Conference League Play-offs - Final). The game is scheduled for Friday 24 May 2024 at 19:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Austria Vienna have gone 4W 3D 3L — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D L L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
At home, Austria Vienna have gone 4W 5D 1L in their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home.
TSV Hartberg — last 10 games: 3W 2D 5L — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W D L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.40. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
TSV Hartberg away from home: 3W 3D 4L from their last 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Austria Vienna) versus 1.10 (TSV Hartberg). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 1 H2H match, Austria Vienna have won 1, TSV Hartberg 0, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data have been high-scoring — 4.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 10 Feb 2024, ended Austria Vienna 3–1 TSV Hartberg — a Austria Vienna win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 4.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Austria Vienna trading profile (last 64 games, 32 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 66% of games (home games).
TSV Hartberg trading profile (last 64 games, 32 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 75% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; of the 16 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 31%; of the 23 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 26%; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Austria Vienna 53% versus TSV Hartberg 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Vienna 61% | TSV Hartberg 64%). Note also that TSV Hartberg surrender HT leads in 31% of cases while Austria Vienna recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 31% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Vienna 1.50 xG and TSV Hartberg 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Vienna attack 1.080 / defence 0.858 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.086 / defence 1.037. League average goals — home 1.341 / away 1.013. Data: built from Austria Vienna's last 44 games and TSV Hartberg's last 44.
Result probabilities: Austria Vienna 49% | Draw 29% | TSV Hartberg 23%. Fair-value odds: Austria Vienna 2.04 | Draw 3.51 | TSV Hartberg 4.44. Austria Vienna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Austria Vienna as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Austria Vienna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.44 combined xG gives a 56% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data — both teams scored in: Austria Vienna 40% (last 10 home games) | TSV Hartberg 80% (last 10 away games), a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Conference League Play-offs - Final | Venue: Generali Arena • Kick-off: Friday 24 May 2024 at 19:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Vienna 49% | Draw 29% | TSV Hartberg 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% (Under 56%) | BTTS Yes 49% (No 51%) | xG Austria Vienna 1.50 / TSV Hartberg 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Vienna attack 1.080 / def 0.858 | TSV Hartberg attack 1.086 / def 1.037 | league avg home 1.341 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: Austria Vienna (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Austria Vienna xG
Expected Goals
0.94
TSV Hartberg xG
49%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg FAQs
What time does Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg kicked off at 19:30 UK time on Friday 24 May 2024 at Generali Arena.
What was the final score in Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Austria Vienna 2 - 1 TSV Hartberg.
Where is Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at Generali Arena.
What competition is Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg part of?
Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg is a Bundesliga fixture (Conference League Play-offs - Final) (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives Austria Vienna a 49% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 23% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Austria Vienna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (51%).
Will Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (56%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Austria Vienna's attacking strength (1.08x league average) is weighed against TSV Hartberg's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.50. The same calculation in reverse, TSV Hartberg's attack versus Austria Vienna's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Austria Vienna's last 44 games and TSV Hartberg's last 44 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.4%), 0-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Vienna Win
49%
2.04
29%
3.51
23%
4.44
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Austria Vienna xG
Total xG
2.44
0.94
TSV Hartberg xG
2.04
49%
Home win
3.51
29%
Draw
4.44
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.05
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
22%
4.49
Win to Nil
19%
5.25
5%
19.92
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 8.2 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 12.3 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.2 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.6 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Austria Vienna and 0.94 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Austria Vienna's recent record stands at 25W 20D 19L from 64 games, a 1.48 PPG return, with D-L-L-W-W in the last five.
TSV Hartberg, meanwhile, have gone 21W 15D 28L across 64 games — 1.22 PPG, with L-W-D-L-W in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Austria Vienna on 1.48 PPG, TSV Hartberg on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Austria Vienna have managed 14W 11D 7L from their last 32 home games — 1.66 PPG in front of their own supporters.
TSV Hartberg's away record stands at 10W 8D 14L across their last 32 away games, a 1.19 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Austria Vienna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Austria Vienna are averaging 1.48 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.38 scored and 1.69 conceded.
Last 64 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Vienna
Current Season
TSV Hartberg
Current Season
Austria Vienna (Home) vs TSV Hartberg (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Austria Vienna
Current Season
TSV Hartberg
Current Season
❓ Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg Form FAQs
What form are Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
Austria Vienna have gone 25W 20D 19L in their last 64 games (1.48 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 21W 15D 28L in their last 64 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Vienna at home or TSV Hartberg away?
Austria Vienna's home record (1.66 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Vienna at home: 1.66 PPG; TSV Hartberg away: 1.19 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from February 2024. All of them came in Bundesliga. The most recent was as recently as 16 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Austria Vienna have won each of the latest 3 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
Austria Vienna's record when hosting TSV Hartberg specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
Austria Vienna
1
Draws
2
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Austria Vienna have won 7, TSV Hartberg have won 2, and 1 has been drawn.
When did Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 16 August 2026: TSV Hartberg 0-2 Austria Vienna.
Who has won more matches between Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg?
Austria Vienna have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Austria Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 40% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Austria Vienna 47%, TSV Hartberg 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 66% for Austria Vienna and 62% for TSV Hartberg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 41% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Austria Vienna keep a clean sheet in 41% of their matches; Austria Vienna have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Vienna home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Austria Vienna vs TSV Hartberg Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Austria Vienna's recent matches and 56% of TSV Hartberg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 66% of Austria Vienna's matches and 62% of TSV Hartberg's.
Do Austria Vienna and TSV Hartberg matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Austria Vienna's recent matches and 75% of TSV Hartberg's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Austria Vienna edge out TSV Hartberg 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Vienna beat TSV Hartberg 2-1 at Generali Arena, Conference League Play-offs - Final, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Vienna 1.50 xG and TSV Hartberg 0.94 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Vienna attack 1.08 / defence 0.86 against TSV Hartberg attack 1.09 / defence 1.04, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Vienna 49% | Draw 29% | TSV Hartberg 23%, with Austria Vienna to win its most likely call at 49%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Vienna 61%, TSV Hartberg 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Vienna's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Austria Vienna 1.48 PPG, TSV Hartberg 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Austria Vienna win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.