Austria Vienna 1-1 Rapid Vienna – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Austria Vienna take on Rapid Vienna.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Generali Arena plays host to Austria Vienna versus Rapid Vienna in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off: Sunday 29 August 2021 at 16:00 UTC.
Form
Austria Vienna (all games): 0W 3D 2L across 5 Bundesliga fixtures this term — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L D D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Austria Vienna have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Rapid Vienna have collected 1.40 PPG across 5 Bundesliga outings this season: 2W 1D 2L. Last five: L D W L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 2 clean sheets in 5 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Rapid Vienna have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Rapid Vienna are 0.80 PPG clear of Austria Vienna in recent Bundesliga fixtures (1.40 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Trading
Austria Vienna half-time and goal-timing data (5 games): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games.
Rapid Vienna half-time and goal-timing data (5 games): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Austria Vienna 80% and Rapid Vienna 40% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Vienna 40% | Rapid Vienna 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Vienna 1.25 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Vienna attack 0.805 / defence 1.117 | Rapid Vienna attack 0.786 / defence 1.232. League average goals — home 1.255 / away 1.254. Rapid Vienna bring a strong defensive rating of 1.232 — this is suppressing Austria Vienna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 5 Austria Vienna games / 5 Rapid Vienna games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Austria Vienna 36% | Draw 36% | Rapid Vienna 29%. Fair-value odds: Austria Vienna 2.78 | Draw 2.78 | Rapid Vienna 3.45. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 29% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.35 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 42% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Austria Vienna 80% | Rapid Vienna 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Generali Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 29 Aug 2021, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Vienna 36% | Draw 36% | Rapid Vienna 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 51% | xG Austria Vienna 1.25 / Rapid Vienna 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Vienna attack 0.805 / def 1.117 | Rapid Vienna attack 0.786 / def 1.232 | league avg home 1.255 / away 1.254 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Austria Vienna xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Rapid Vienna xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna kick off?
Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 29 August 2021 at Generali Arena.
What was the final score in Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna?
Austria Vienna 1 - 1 Rapid Vienna.
Where is Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna being played?
The match is being played at Generali Arena.
What competition is Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna part of?
Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna?
Our statistical model gives Austria Vienna a 36% chance of winning, Rapid Vienna a 29% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Austria Vienna and Rapid Vienna will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and Rapid Vienna?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Austria Vienna and Rapid Vienna in?
Austria Vienna (all comps): 0W-3D-2L in 5 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-D-D. Rapid Vienna (all comps): 2W-1D-2L in 5 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Austria Vienna's attack rating (0.81) and Rapid Vienna's defence rating (1.23), the model arrives at 1.25 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Rapid Vienna's attack (0.79x) against Austria Vienna's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.10.
These ratings are built from 5/5 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.8%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
36%
2.81
36%
2.79
29%
3.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Austria Vienna xG
Total xG
2.35
1.10
Rapid Vienna xG
2.81
36%
Home win
2.79
36%
Draw
3.50
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.94
49%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
33%
3.01
29%
3.47
Win to Nil
12%
8.46
8%
12.15
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 10.5 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 13.1 | 7.2 | 2.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.2 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Austria Vienna and Rapid Vienna expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Austria Vienna and 1.10 for Rapid Vienna, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Austria Vienna's recent record stands at 0W 3D 2L from 5 games, a 0.60 PPG return, with L-D-L-D-D in the last five. It's still early in the season for Austria Vienna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Rapid Vienna, meanwhile, have gone 2W 1D 2L across 5 games — 1.40 PPG, with L-D-W-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Rapid Vienna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Rapid Vienna by 0.80 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Austria Vienna heading into this one.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Austria Vienna are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game recently; Rapid Vienna are on 1.60 scored and 1.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Austria Vienna have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games.
Defensively: Rapid Vienna in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 5 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Vienna
Early Season
Rapid Vienna
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Austria Vienna and Rapid Vienna in coming into this match?
Austria Vienna have gone 0W 3D 2L in their last 5 games (0.60 PPG), while Rapid Vienna have gone 2W 1D 2L in their last 5 (1.40 PPG).
Have Austria Vienna or Rapid Vienna been keeping clean sheets recently?
Austria Vienna have kept a clean sheet in 0% of their recent games, Rapid Vienna in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since October 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. The two were last together as recently as 10 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Rapid Vienna won 3-0 on 25 Feb 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Austria Vienna have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Rapid Vienna — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Austria Vienna
2
Draws
4
Rapid Vienna
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Vienna and Rapid Vienna?
From 10 meetings on record, Austria Vienna have won 4, Rapid Vienna have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Austria Vienna and Rapid Vienna last play each other?
They last met on 10 May 2026, when Rapid Vienna 0-2 Austria Vienna.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Austria Vienna see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Rapid Vienna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Austria Vienna 80%, Rapid Vienna 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Austria Vienna) and 60% (Rapid Vienna).
On the defensive side: Rapid Vienna in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Vienna home games / Rapid Vienna away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Austria Vienna play Rapid Vienna?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Austria Vienna's games and 40% of Rapid Vienna's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Austria Vienna vs Rapid Vienna usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Austria Vienna's recent games and 60% of Rapid Vienna's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Austria Vienna and Rapid Vienna tend to score early?
Austria Vienna have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Rapid Vienna in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Austria Vienna and Rapid Vienna share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Generali Arena, Regular Season - 6, as Austria Vienna and Rapid Vienna drew 1-1 in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Vienna 1.25 xG and Rapid Vienna 1.10 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Vienna attack 0.81 / defence 1.12 against Rapid Vienna attack 0.79 / defence 1.23, drawn from 5/5 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Vienna 36% | Draw 36% | Rapid Vienna 29%, with Austria Vienna to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Vienna 40%, Rapid Vienna 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Vienna's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 80% of their matches — today it did.
Rapid Vienna's trading profile (5 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Rapid Vienna arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.60. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.