Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates TSV Hartberg at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Austria Lustenau host TSV Hartberg at Planet Pure Stadion in Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 11 December 2026 at 18:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Austria Lustenau — All Games: 1W 2D 2L from 5 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: D L W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. Austria Lustenau have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Austria Lustenau's home record at Planet Pure Stadion: 1W 1D 1L from 3 Bundesliga appearances (1.33 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, TSV Hartberg have recorded 4W 0D 6L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. TSV Hartberg have played only a handful of Bundesliga games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, TSV Hartberg have posted 4W 4D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.60 PPG. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Austria Lustenau at 1.00 PPG versus TSV Hartberg's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, Austria Lustenau have won 3, TSV Hartberg 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.7 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2023, ended 0–4 with TSV Hartberg winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.7 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Austria Lustenau in-play tendencies (5 games): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 80% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games.
TSV Hartberg in-play tendencies (5 games): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games; they fail to score in 60% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Austria Lustenau 80% and TSV Hartberg 40% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Lustenau 60% | TSV Hartberg 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Lustenau 0.92 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Lustenau attack 0.733 / defence 1.388 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.998 / defence 0.769. League average goals — home 1.628 / away 1.158. Austria Lustenau's attack strength of 0.733 is below the league average — the 0.92 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. TSV Hartberg's defence strength of 0.769 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 5 Austria Lustenau games / 27 TSV Hartberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Austria Lustenau 20% | Draw 27% | TSV Hartberg 52%. Fair-value odds: Austria Lustenau 5.00 | Draw 3.70 | TSV Hartberg 1.92. TSV Hartberg hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, TSV Hartberg are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on TSV Hartberg offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates are neutral: Austria Lustenau 67% | TSV Hartberg 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Planet Pure Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 11 Dec 2026, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Lustenau 20% | Draw 27% | TSV Hartberg 52% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 49% | xG Austria Lustenau 0.92 / TSV Hartberg 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Lustenau attack 0.733 / def 1.388 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.998 / def 0.769 | league avg home 1.628 / away 1.158 • Poisson stance: TSV Hartberg (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.92
Austria Lustenau xG
Expected Goals
1.60
TSV Hartberg xG
49%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg is scheduled to kick off at 18:30 on Friday 11 December 2026 at Planet Pure Stadion.
Where is Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at Planet Pure Stadion.
What competition is Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg part of?
Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives Austria Lustenau a 20% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 52% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making TSV Hartberg the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Austria Lustenau and TSV Hartberg will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Lustenau and TSV Hartberg?
Record (6 meetings): Austria Lustenau 3W | Draws 2 | TSV Hartberg 1W.
What form are Austria Lustenau and TSV Hartberg in?
Austria Lustenau (all comps): 1W-2D-2L in 5 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-W-D-L. TSV Hartberg (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Austria Lustenau's attack rating (0.73) and TSV Hartberg's defence rating (0.77), the model arrives at 0.92 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, TSV Hartberg's attack versus Austria Lustenau's defence, projects 1.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 5/27 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.3%), 0-2 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
TSV Hartberg Win
20%
4.90
27%
3.67
52%
1.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
0 – 2
10.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.92
Austria Lustenau xG
Total xG
2.52
1.60
TSV Hartberg xG
4.90
20%
Home win
3.67
27%
Draw
1.91
52%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.97
Clean Sheet
20%
4.98
40%
2.50
Win to Nil
4%
24.39
21%
4.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 12.9 | 10.3 | 5.5 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.8 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 5.4 | 4.4 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Austria Lustenau and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 0.92 expected goals for Austria Lustenau and 1.60 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Austria Lustenau come into this having played 5 games, going 1W 2D 2L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-D-L. It's still early in the season for Austria Lustenau, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, TSV Hartberg sit at 1.20 PPG from 5 outings (2W 0D 3L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for TSV Hartberg, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: Austria Lustenau on 1.00 PPG, TSV Hartberg on 1.20. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
The Goals Picture
Austria Lustenau are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.00 scored and 1.60 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Austria Lustenau have seen both teams score in 80% of their recent games.
Last 5 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Lustenau
Early Season
TSV Hartberg
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Austria Lustenau and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
Austria Lustenau have gone 1W 2D 2L in their last 5 games (1.00 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 2W 0D 3L in their last 5 (1.20 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Austria Lustenau and TSV Hartberg runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 October 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Jun 2023, when Austria Lustenau won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Austria Lustenau's record when hosting TSV Hartberg specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Austria Lustenau
2
Draws
1
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Lustenau and TSV Hartberg?
From 6 meetings on record, Austria Lustenau have won 3, TSV Hartberg have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Austria Lustenau and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
They last met on 29 October 2023, when Austria Lustenau 0-4 TSV Hartberg.
Who has won more matches between Austria Lustenau and TSV Hartberg?
Austria Lustenau have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Austria Lustenau are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Austria Lustenau 80%, TSV Hartberg 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 60% (Austria Lustenau) and 40% (TSV Hartberg).
On the defensive side: TSV Hartberg in 60%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Lustenau home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Austria Lustenau play TSV Hartberg?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 80% of Austria Lustenau's games and 40% of TSV Hartberg's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 60% of Austria Lustenau's recent games and 40% of TSV Hartberg's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Austria Lustenau and TSV Hartberg tend to score early?
Austria Lustenau have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, TSV Hartberg in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.