Austria Lustenau 5-1 TSV Hartberg – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Austria Lustenau at 43% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Austria Lustenau host TSV Hartberg at Planet Pure Stadion in Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 2 June 2023 at 18:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Austria Lustenau — All Games: 4W 4D 2L from 10 Bundesliga outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: D D D L D. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Austria Lustenau's home record at Planet Pure Stadion: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Bundesliga appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, TSV Hartberg have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, TSV Hartberg have posted 3W 2D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Austria Lustenau at 1.60 PPG versus TSV Hartberg's 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Austria Lustenau have won 2, TSV Hartberg 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Mar 2023, ended 1–0 with Austria Lustenau winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Austria Lustenau in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
TSV Hartberg in-play tendencies (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Austria Lustenau 58% versus TSV Hartberg 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Austria Lustenau 55% | TSV Hartberg 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Lustenau 1.47 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.21 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Lustenau attack 1.007 / defence 1.130 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.801 / defence 1.054. League average goals — home 1.381 / away 1.339. Data: 22 Austria Lustenau games / 44 TSV Hartberg games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Austria Lustenau 43% | Draw 26% | TSV Hartberg 31%. Fair-value odds: Austria Lustenau 2.33 | Draw 3.85 | TSV Hartberg 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Austria Lustenau are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Austria Lustenau offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 54%. Form rates are neutral: Austria Lustenau 50% | TSV Hartberg 40%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg | Competition: Bundesliga, Relegation Round - 10 | Venue: Planet Pure Stadion • Kick-off: Friday 2 Jun 2023, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Lustenau 43% | Draw 26% | TSV Hartberg 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Austria Lustenau 1.47 / TSV Hartberg 1.21 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Lustenau attack 1.007 / def 1.130 | TSV Hartberg attack 0.801 / def 1.054 | league avg home 1.381 / away 1.339 • Poisson stance: Austria Lustenau (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Austria Lustenau xG
Expected Goals
1.21
TSV Hartberg xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg kick off?
Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg kicked off at 18:30 on Friday 2 June 2023 at Planet Pure Stadion.
What was the final score in Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg?
Austria Lustenau 5 - 1 TSV Hartberg.
Where is Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg being played?
The match is being played at Planet Pure Stadion.
What competition is Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg part of?
Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg is a Relegation Round - 10 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg?
Our statistical model gives Austria Lustenau a 43% chance of winning, TSV Hartberg a 31% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Austria Lustenau the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Austria Lustenau and TSV Hartberg will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Lustenau and TSV Hartberg?
Record (3 meetings): Austria Lustenau 2W | Draws 1 | TSV Hartberg 0W.
What form are Austria Lustenau and TSV Hartberg in?
Austria Lustenau (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-D-L-D. TSV Hartberg (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Austria Lustenau's attack rating (1.01) and TSV Hartberg's defence rating (1.05), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, TSV Hartberg's attack versus Austria Lustenau's defence, projects 1.21 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Austria Lustenau Win
43%
2.33
26%
3.89
31%
3.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Austria Lustenau xG
Total xG
2.68
1.21
TSV Hartberg xG
2.33
43%
Home win
3.89
26%
Draw
3.20
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.17
Clean Sheet
30%
3.36
23%
4.33
Win to Nil
13%
7.80
7%
13.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.3 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.1 | 12.2 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 8.9 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.6 | 4.4 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Austria Lustenau and TSV Hartberg expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Austria Lustenau and 1.21 for TSV Hartberg, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Austria Lustenau come into this having played 31 games, going 10W 10D 11L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-D-L-D.
On the other side, TSV Hartberg sit at 1.06 PPG from 31 outings (9W 6D 16L), a run that reads D-W-W-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Austria Lustenau on 1.29 PPG, TSV Hartberg on 1.06. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Austria Lustenau's home form reads 6W 4D 5L across 15 games on their own ground, a 1.47 PPG return.
Away from home, TSV Hartberg have taken 1.00 points per game from 15 outings (4W 3D 8L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Austria Lustenau come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Austria Lustenau are averaging 1.45 goals scored and 1.71 conceded per game recently; TSV Hartberg are on 1.23 scored and 1.65 conceded.
Last 31 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Lustenau
Current Season
TSV Hartberg
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Austria Lustenau and TSV Hartberg in coming into this match?
Austria Lustenau have gone 10W 10D 11L in their last 31 games (1.29 PPG), while TSV Hartberg have gone 9W 6D 16L in their last 31 (1.06 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Lustenau at home or TSV Hartberg away?
Austria Lustenau's home record (1.47 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Lustenau at home: 1.47 PPG; TSV Hartberg away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Austria Lustenau and TSV Hartberg runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 October 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Jun 2023, when Austria Lustenau won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Austria Lustenau's record when hosting TSV Hartberg specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Austria Lustenau
2
Draws
1
TSV Hartberg
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Lustenau and TSV Hartberg?
From 6 meetings on record, Austria Lustenau have won 3, TSV Hartberg have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Austria Lustenau and TSV Hartberg last play each other?
They last met on 29 October 2023, when Austria Lustenau 0-4 TSV Hartberg.
Who has won more matches between Austria Lustenau and TSV Hartberg?
Austria Lustenau have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Austria Lustenau are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 53% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
TSV Hartberg are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Austria Lustenau 60%, TSV Hartberg 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Austria Lustenau and 53% for TSV Hartberg. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: TSV Hartberg in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Lustenau home games / TSV Hartberg away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Austria Lustenau play TSV Hartberg?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Austria Lustenau's recent matches and 47% of TSV Hartberg's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Austria Lustenau vs TSV Hartberg usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Austria Lustenau's matches and 53% of TSV Hartberg's.
Do Austria Lustenau and TSV Hartberg tend to score early?
Austria Lustenau have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, TSV Hartberg in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Austria Lustenau run riot with a 5-1 hammering of TSV Hartberg.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Lustenau beat TSV Hartberg 5-1 at Planet Pure Stadion, Relegation Round - 10, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Lustenau 1.47 xG and TSV Hartberg 1.21 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Austria Lustenau beat their projection by 3.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Lustenau attack 1.01 / defence 1.13 against TSV Hartberg attack 0.80 / defence 1.05, drawn from 22/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Lustenau 43% | Draw 26% | TSV Hartberg 31%, with Austria Lustenau to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Lustenau 55%, TSV Hartberg 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Lustenau's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
TSV Hartberg's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Austria Lustenau 1.29 PPG, TSV Hartberg 1.06 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Austria Lustenau win broke the near-deadlock. Austria Lustenau (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.87 average — tighter than their form line. TSV Hartberg (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.60 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.