Austria Lustenau 3-0 SCR Altach – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates SCR Altach at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Austria Lustenau vs SCR Altach encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Bundesliga clash, Regular Season - 16 as Austria Lustenau welcome SCR Altach to Planet Pure Stadion. Kick-off is set for Saturday 12 November 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Austria Lustenau stand at 0W 5D 5L from 10 Bundesliga matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L D D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Austria Lustenau, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Austria Lustenau's home record at Planet Pure Stadion: 2W 3D 2L from 7 Bundesliga appearances (1.29 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 2.14 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 71% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.29 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Austria Lustenau are significantly better at Planet Pure Stadion than their overall form suggests.
Across all Bundesliga games this season, SCR Altach have recorded 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for SCR Altach, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, SCR Altach have posted 3W 1D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Form points away from home here. SCR Altach's 1.10 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Austria Lustenau's 0.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Austria Lustenau register both teams scoring in 71% of relevant matches, SCR Altach in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Austria Lustenau, 0 for SCR Altach and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 20 Aug 2022, ended 2–1 with Austria Lustenau winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Austria Lustenau trading profile (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
SCR Altach trading profile (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Austria Lustenau 73% and SCR Altach 73% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Austria Lustenau 60% | SCR Altach 73%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Lustenau 1.75 xG and SCR Altach 1.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Lustenau attack 0.962 / defence 1.230 | SCR Altach attack 0.892 / defence 1.269. League average goals — home 1.428 / away 1.659. SCR Altach bring a strong defensive rating of 1.269 — this is suppressing Austria Lustenau's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 15 Austria Lustenau games / 37 SCR Altach games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Austria Lustenau 36% | Draw 24% | SCR Altach 40%. Fair-value odds: Austria Lustenau 2.78 | Draw 4.17 | SCR Altach 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 24% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 70% | Total xG 3.57. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.57 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 70% reflects that both xG figures (1.75 / 1.82) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, SCR Altach are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on SCR Altach offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.57 combined xG gives a 69% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 70% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Austria Lustenau 71% | SCR Altach 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 36% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Lustenau vs SCR Altach | Competition: Bundesliga, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Planet Pure Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Nov 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Lustenau 36% | Draw 24% | SCR Altach 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 70% | xG Austria Lustenau 1.75 / SCR Altach 1.82 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Lustenau attack 0.962 / def 1.230 | SCR Altach attack 0.892 / def 1.269 | league avg home 1.428 / away 1.659 • Poisson stance: SCR Altach (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.75
Austria Lustenau xG
Expected Goals
1.82
SCR Altach xG
70%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Lustenau vs SCR Altach kick off?
Austria Lustenau vs SCR Altach kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 12 November 2022 at Planet Pure Stadion.
What was the final score in Austria Lustenau vs SCR Altach?
Austria Lustenau 3 - 0 SCR Altach.
Where is Austria Lustenau vs SCR Altach being played?
The match is being played at Planet Pure Stadion.
What competition is Austria Lustenau vs SCR Altach part of?
Austria Lustenau vs SCR Altach is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Lustenau vs SCR Altach?
Our statistical model gives Austria Lustenau a 36% chance of winning, SCR Altach a 40% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making SCR Altach the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Lustenau vs SCR Altach?
Our model estimates a 70% probability that both Austria Lustenau and SCR Altach will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Lustenau vs SCR Altach have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Lustenau and SCR Altach?
Record (1 meetings): Austria Lustenau 1W | Draws 0 | SCR Altach 0W.
What form are Austria Lustenau and SCR Altach in?
Austria Lustenau (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.30 | L5 L-L-D-D-D. SCR Altach (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Austria Lustenau's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against SCR Altach's defensive record (1.27x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.75. The same calculation in reverse, SCR Altach's attack versus Austria Lustenau's defence, projects 1.82 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 15/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 10.2%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.2%), 2-1 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
SCR Altach Win
36%
2.74
24%
4.16
40%
2.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.2%
Away win
2 – 1
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.75
Austria Lustenau xG
Total xG
3.57
1.82
SCR Altach xG
2.74
36%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
2.53
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
48%
Over 3.5
2.08
52%
Under 3.5
1.92
29%
Over 4.5
3.45
71%
Under 4.5
1.41
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
70%
BTTS Yes
1.43
30%
BTTS No
3.35
Clean Sheet
16%
6.18
17%
5.73
Win to Nil
6%
16.95
7%
14.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.8 | 5.1 | 4.7 | 2.8 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 9.0 | 8.2 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 7.8 | 7.1 | 4.3 | 2.0 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 2.5 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 1.1 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Lustenau vs SCR Altach?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.2%.
How many goals are Austria Lustenau and SCR Altach expected to score?
The model projects 1.75 expected goals for Austria Lustenau and 1.82 for SCR Altach, a combined total of 3.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Lustenau vs SCR Altach?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Austria Lustenau come into this having played 15 games, going 3W 6D 6L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-D. The sample for Austria Lustenau is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, SCR Altach sit at 1.00 PPG from 15 outings (4W 3D 8L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-D across their last five. The sample for SCR Altach is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Austria Lustenau on 1.00 PPG, SCR Altach on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Austria Lustenau's home form reads 2W 3D 2L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.29 PPG return.
Away from home, SCR Altach have taken 1.00 points per game from 7 outings (2W 1D 4L).
Goals in Recent Form
Austria Lustenau are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.87 conceded per game recently; SCR Altach are on 1.33 scored and 2.07 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Austria Lustenau have seen both teams score in 73% of their recent games; SCR Altach in 73%.
Last 15 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Lustenau
Blended
SCR Altach
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Austria Lustenau and SCR Altach in coming into this match?
Austria Lustenau have gone 3W 6D 6L in their last 15 games (1.00 PPG), while SCR Altach have gone 4W 3D 8L in their last 15 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Lustenau at home or SCR Altach away?
Austria Lustenau's home record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Lustenau at home: 1.29 PPG; SCR Altach away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 May 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 12 Nov 2022, when Austria Lustenau won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Austria Lustenau's record when hosting SCR Altach specifically: 2W 0D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Austria Lustenau
2
Draws
3
SCR Altach
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Lustenau and SCR Altach?
From 8 meetings on record, Austria Lustenau have won 3, SCR Altach have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Austria Lustenau and SCR Altach last play each other?
They last met on 18 May 2024, when SCR Altach 2-2 Austria Lustenau.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Austria Lustenau are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
SCR Altach are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Austria Lustenau at 71%, SCR Altach at 71%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 71% for Austria Lustenau and 86% for SCR Altach. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 57% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Austria Lustenau have failed to score in 29% of games; SCR Altach in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Lustenau home games / SCR Altach away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Austria Lustenau play SCR Altach?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Austria Lustenau's games and 71% of SCR Altach's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Austria Lustenau vs SCR Altach usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 71% of Austria Lustenau's matches and 86% of SCR Altach's.
Do Austria Lustenau and SCR Altach tend to score early?
Austria Lustenau have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, SCR Altach in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Austria Lustenau run riot with a 3-0 hammering of SCR Altach.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Austria Lustenau beat SCR Altach 3-0 at Planet Pure Stadion, Regular Season - 16, in the Bundesliga. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Lustenau 1.75 xG and SCR Altach 1.82 xG, a combined 3.57. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. Austria Lustenau beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. SCR Altach landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Lustenau attack 0.96 / defence 1.23 against SCR Altach attack 0.89 / defence 1.27, drawn from 15/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Lustenau 36% | Draw 24% | SCR Altach 40%, with SCR Altach to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Austria Lustenau win had been the model's second-ranked read at 36%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 70% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Lustenau 60%, SCR Altach 73%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 73%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Lustenau's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
SCR Altach's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Austria Lustenau 1.00 PPG, SCR Altach 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Austria Lustenau win broke the near-deadlock. Austria Lustenau (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.14 average — tighter than their form line. SCR Altach (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.