Austria Klagenfurt 1-2 Sturm Graz – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Sturm Graz at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Austria Klagenfurt vs Sturm Graz encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Wörthersee Stadion plays host to Austria Klagenfurt versus Sturm Graz in Bundesliga, Championship Round - 8. Kick-off: Sunday 8 May 2022 at 13:30 UTC.
Current Form
Austria Klagenfurt's overall Bundesliga record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: D L W L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 2.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.30 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Austria Klagenfurt at Wörthersee Stadion this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Sturm Graz (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Bundesliga outings this term — 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W W D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.90. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Bundesliga this season, Sturm Graz have posted 3W 3D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Sturm Graz are the stronger side — 1.20 PPG clear of the hosts (2.10 vs 0.90). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Austria Klagenfurt have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Sturm Graz in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
Trading & In-Play
Austria Klagenfurt — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 93% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
Sturm Graz — key trading statistics (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 45%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Austria Klagenfurt 69% and Sturm Graz 66% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Austria Klagenfurt 62% | Sturm Graz 72%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Austria Klagenfurt 1.34 xG and Sturm Graz 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.953 / defence 1.135 | Sturm Graz attack 1.040 / defence 1.224. League average goals — home 1.149 / away 1.239. Sturm Graz bring a strong defensive rating of 1.224 — this is suppressing Austria Klagenfurt's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 22 Austria Klagenfurt games / 22 Sturm Graz games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Austria Klagenfurt 35% | Draw 25% | Sturm Graz 40%. Fair-value odds: Austria Klagenfurt 2.86 | Draw 4.00 | Sturm Graz 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 25% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.80. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.80 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sturm Graz at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 25% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sturm Graz if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.80 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 57% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Austria Klagenfurt 60% | Sturm Graz 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Austria Klagenfurt vs Sturm Graz | Competition: Bundesliga, Championship Round - 8 | Venue: Wörthersee Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 8 May 2022, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Austria Klagenfurt 35% | Draw 25% | Sturm Graz 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Austria Klagenfurt 1.34 / Sturm Graz 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.953 / def 1.135 | Sturm Graz attack 1.040 / def 1.224 | league avg home 1.149 / away 1.239 • Poisson stance: Sturm Graz (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.34
Austria Klagenfurt xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Sturm Graz xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Austria Klagenfurt vs Sturm Graz kick off?
Austria Klagenfurt vs Sturm Graz kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 8 May 2022 at Wörthersee Stadion.
What was the final score in Austria Klagenfurt vs Sturm Graz?
Austria Klagenfurt 1 - 2 Sturm Graz.
Where is Austria Klagenfurt vs Sturm Graz being played?
The match is being played at Wörthersee Stadion.
What competition is Austria Klagenfurt vs Sturm Graz part of?
Austria Klagenfurt vs Sturm Graz is a Championship Round - 8 fixture in the Bundesliga (Austria).
Who is favourite to win Austria Klagenfurt vs Sturm Graz?
Our statistical model gives Austria Klagenfurt a 35% chance of winning, Sturm Graz a 40% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Sturm Graz the favourite.
Will both teams score in Austria Klagenfurt vs Sturm Graz?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Austria Klagenfurt and Sturm Graz will score (BTTS).
Will Austria Klagenfurt vs Sturm Graz have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Klagenfurt and Sturm Graz?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Austria Klagenfurt and Sturm Graz in?
Austria Klagenfurt (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.30 | L5 D-L-W-L-D. Sturm Graz (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Austria Klagenfurt's attack at 0.95x the league average against Sturm Graz's defence at 1.22x — combine the two and it projects 1.34 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Sturm Graz's attack (1.04x) against Austria Klagenfurt's defence (1.14x) — and the away total comes out at 1.46.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.7%), 2-1 (8.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sturm Graz Win
35%
2.89
25%
3.97
40%
2.49
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
8.9%
Away win
1 – 2
8.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.34
Austria Klagenfurt xG
Total xG
2.80
1.46
Sturm Graz xG
2.89
35%
Home win
3.97
25%
Draw
2.49
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
23%
4.31
26%
3.82
Win to Nil
8%
12.44
11%
9.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 8.9 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 11.9 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.0 | 5.8 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Austria Klagenfurt vs Sturm Graz?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Austria Klagenfurt and Sturm Graz expected to score?
The model projects 1.34 expected goals for Austria Klagenfurt and 1.46 for Sturm Graz, a combined total of 2.80.
How confident is the prediction model for Austria Klagenfurt vs Sturm Graz?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 29 outings, Austria Klagenfurt have picked up 1.21 PPG on a 8W 11D 10L record — D-L-W-L-D across the most recent five.
Sturm Graz's form line: 15W 8D 6L from 29 games, 1.83 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W.
Put side by side, Sturm Graz are the form team by 0.62 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Austria Klagenfurt.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Austria Klagenfurt have posted 1.29 PPG from 14 outings (4W 6D 4L).
On the road, Sturm Graz have gone 6W 4D 4L from 14 away games — 1.57 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Austria Klagenfurt are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; Sturm Graz are on 1.97 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Austria Klagenfurt have seen both teams score in 69% of their recent games; Sturm Graz in 66%.
Last 29 Results — Bundesliga
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Austria Klagenfurt
Current Season
Sturm Graz
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Austria Klagenfurt and Sturm Graz in coming into this match?
Austria Klagenfurt have gone 8W 11D 10L in their last 29 games (1.21 PPG), while Sturm Graz have gone 15W 8D 6L in their last 29 (1.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Austria Klagenfurt at home or Sturm Graz away?
Sturm Graz's away record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Austria Klagenfurt at home: 1.29 PPG; Sturm Graz away: 1.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2022 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Bundesliga. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 November 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Sturm Graz go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sturm Graz won 7-0 on 23 Nov 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Austria Klagenfurt have gone 0W 0D 5L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sturm Graz — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Austria Klagenfurt
1
Draws
8
Sturm Graz
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Austria Klagenfurt and Sturm Graz?
From 10 meetings on record, Austria Klagenfurt have won 1, Sturm Graz have won 8, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Austria Klagenfurt and Sturm Graz last play each other?
They last met on 23 November 2024, when Sturm Graz 7-0 Austria Klagenfurt.
Who has won more matches between Austria Klagenfurt and Sturm Graz?
Sturm Graz have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Austria Klagenfurt are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 93% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Sturm Graz are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 71% for Austria Klagenfurt, 64% for Sturm Graz — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 57% for Austria Klagenfurt and 64% for Sturm Graz. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 36% and 43% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Austria Klagenfurt home games / Sturm Graz away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Austria Klagenfurt play Sturm Graz?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 71% of Austria Klagenfurt's games and 64% of Sturm Graz's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Austria Klagenfurt vs Sturm Graz usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 57% of Austria Klagenfurt's matches and 64% of Sturm Graz's.
Do Austria Klagenfurt and Sturm Graz tend to score early?
Austria Klagenfurt have had a goal before half-time in 93% of their recent matches, Sturm Graz in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sturm Graz edge out Austria Klagenfurt 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sturm Graz beat Austria Klagenfurt 1-2 at Wörthersee Stadion, Championship Round - 8, in the Bundesliga. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Austria Klagenfurt 1.34 xG and Sturm Graz 1.46 xG, a combined 2.80. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Austria Klagenfurt attack 0.95 / defence 1.14 against Sturm Graz attack 1.04 / defence 1.22, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Austria Klagenfurt 35% | Draw 25% | Sturm Graz 40%, with Sturm Graz to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Austria Klagenfurt 62%, Sturm Graz 72%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Austria Klagenfurt's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 69% of their matches — today it did.
Sturm Graz's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Sturm Graz arrived the stronger side — 1.83 PPG against 1.21. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.